Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Ya.. but it has to be pretty marginal EV, I'd imagine. I'm assuming it is approaching neutral EV at this point.
But you're right I didn't even think of taxes.
Ignoring taxes ... it's still not, because too many people will play. Now and then a state lottery will approach or even exceed neutral EV (pre-tax), but the Powerball/megamillions never have even come close in the several years during which I've been watching for it.
Take out taxes at around 40% net for most people (including state taxes),a and a $5 ticket is probably worth around $2 for this drawing. Not like buying one is the most horrible thing in the world, but it's nice to know what you're getting.
(Of course, the biggest effect is the declining marginal utility of money — $200 million is pretty obviously not worth two hundred million times as much happiness as a dollar.)