Sporting Events FAQ, Liveblog, and BANGERS - Page 432 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I've read Sill's paper on RAPM when I was thinking about submitting an article to the JQAS. It sounds like it significantly reduces the standard error of estimating someone's true talent in a given discipline. So it sounds like Bobbo's position is reasonable.

fair enough.

i still think his statement "there is no such thing as a tiny sample of rapm" might be a tad hyperbolic. it may be smaller than 900 minutes but i'm pretty sure it exists.

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05-09-2011 , 06:26 PM

#10777

sethypooh21

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

There is no such thing as a tiny sample of RAPM though. The thing is it does mean a lot.

I don't want people to misinterpret this, but about ridge regression in general: (RAPM) it's not my job to explain higher level math to people. Some people understand it. if you don't, and you make an effort to learn, kudos. But if you don't get it, arguing against it is very ignorant, since it's important to understand what you're actually arguing.

Basically, if you want to say it's a small sample, maybe learn about ridge regression first, since it pretty much addresses those concerns.

Not helping your case.

Edit: If you can't explain in reasonably educated layman's terms why this metric is better than others AND why you place so much faith in it, you've given us not much more to go on than "secret stats". It's not that you're right or wrong, it's that we have no way of evaluating the claim.

Edit Edit: and to the limited extent Epi has a valid point here, it's that saying essentially that "Asik top 10 defensive player, not my fault you can't understand why" is functionally the same as trolling.

Last edited by sethypooh21; 05-09-2011 at 06:31 PM.

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05-09-2011 , 06:27 PM

#10778

ClarkNasty

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The contention that we can confidently call a rookie NBA player with 12mpg at "worst" a top-10 defensive player in the league strikes me as absurd.

Last edited by ClarkNasty; 05-09-2011 at 06:28 PM. Reason: I mean, maybe I'm just totally missing the boat here, but I'm not willing to hit the I Believe button.

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05-09-2011 , 06:40 PM

#10779

THAY3R

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Boobotarding at it's finest

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05-09-2011 , 07:00 PM

#10780

Phildo

doesn't watch the games

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 22,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by sethypooh21

otoh i will say that, as a guy who is not particularly interested in basketball or basketball statistics, i was still able to find out that rapm is probably at the very least a much better metric than apm in said 15 minutes.

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05-09-2011 , 07:04 PM

#10781

Loretta8

knows her Big Ten

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 21,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pudge714

I haven't been reading the playoff threads because I have been too busy watching people golf, but I the regular season hockey thread was probably my favorite to participate/read, especially if you decide to ignore goofyballer liveblogging DVRed games

the NHL offseason thread going right now has been really good as well

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05-09-2011 , 07:05 PM

#10782

ThaSaltCracka

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Phildo

Fair point, but if you are going to use an advanced stat based on upper level math you shouldn't be surprised when someone asks you to explain it, especially when its being used to argue what appears to be an absurd point.

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05-09-2011 , 07:08 PM

#10783

anononon

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I am not in the majority when it comes to these things, but if someone said "such and such metric means this, go figure it out," I would gladly do that in order to contribute to the discussion at hand rather than say something like "why don't YOU explain it you big dick cheese." Chances are good a simple Google search will uncover what you need to know, and if you can't find it then, you should then ask questions.

But again I understand such thinking is generally not accepted as reasonable for sports discussions on this site.

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05-09-2011 , 07:10 PM

#10784

Phildo

doesn't watch the games

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 22,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

yeah that's true. i have spent a good number of posts explaining (or attempting to explain) advanced metrics in mlb threads.

imo if you're going to use advanced metrics in arguments with people you know may not understand them you should try to explain them, and failing that at least link to a better explanation.

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05-09-2011 , 07:12 PM

#10785

kbfc

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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 4,225

big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".

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05-09-2011 , 07:14 PM

#10786

anononon

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by kbfc

big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".

To Jetto, it is.

(The long form of this post is to show that your average poster here understands VPIP/PFR/WTSD/W$SD but lols at the concept of RAPM or WAR; a cognitive dissonance indeed. Counterpoint: People prefer to be casualfan.jpg about sports but not about poker.)

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05-09-2011 , 07:16 PM

#10787

Triumph36

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would an FAQ about advanced stats work? i've been asked by people lately about advanced NHL stats, maybe a catch-all FAQ would work for the five major sports on SE?

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05-09-2011 , 07:17 PM

#10788

NozeCandy

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Yeah once I get over my initial hatred of academic papers in pdf form (leftover scarring from college) it's really not that hard at all to understand.

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05-09-2011 , 07:19 PM

#10789

Phildo

doesn't watch the games

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 22,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by kbfc

big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".

hey as long as you're here, could you let us know how valuable a 1000 minute sample of defensive rapm is iyo?

Quote:

Originally Posted by NozeCandy

Yeah once I get over my initial hatred of academic papers in pdf form (leftover scarring from college) it's really not that hard at all to understand.

anyone with a hatred of academic papers should probably take a look at some of these links:

http://praiseball.wordpress.com/burn-baums/

cliff notes: phil birnbaum really enjoys ****ting on sloppy papers by academics about sports.

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05-09-2011 , 07:20 PM

#10790

ThaSaltCracka

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kbfc

big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".

I've never looked at it or rapm, primarily because I am just not interested in it one way or the other, I just based it off bobbos post. If its not upper level math, then it should be easy to explain.

I had never heard if ridge regression until today. Is that not considered upper level stats?

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05-09-2011 , 07:29 PM

#10791

kbfc

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 4,225

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phildo

hey as long as you're here, could you let us know how valuable a 1000 minute sample of defensive rapm is iyo?

I'm about to head out. I can't really quantify this, but I'll say, "not very much, but better than nothing."

If you're trying to hint at Asik, then I'll just say that I have other reasons to believe he's pretty damn good on defense (including eye-test), but I'd have to see him do it in starters minutes before he made a top-10 list.

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05-09-2011 , 07:32 PM

#10792

sethypooh21

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

I'm not asking him to give chapter and verse, but a quick paragraph or two about how this stat is different and why it's better, perhaps with a link to more detailed explanations should I so desire, isn't too much to ask. And if it's not super high level math, it should be that much easier to explain in simple terms.

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05-09-2011 , 07:33 PM

#10793

THAY3R

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Kyle,

Boobo is like an agame/thremp hybrid.

He is no Kyleb

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05-09-2011 , 07:38 PM

#10794

NozeCandy

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I linked to the paper the stat creator wrote. It's 6 pages, nothing crazy.

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05-09-2011 , 07:41 PM

#10795

ThaSaltCracka

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NozeCandy

I linked to the paper the stat creator wrote. It's 6 pages, nothing crazy.

I didn't take a look at, maybe won't at all, but basically explaining it and then linking to a paper seems pretty reasonable.

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05-09-2011 , 07:41 PM

#10796

THAY3R

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Warning, contains remarks about body mass

Spoiler:

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05-09-2011 , 07:42 PM

#10797

Phildo

doesn't watch the games

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 22,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by kbfc

hmm that sounds suspiciously reasonable

tyvm

edit: i am pronouncing rapm as "rape 'em"

anybody know if this is correct?

Quote

05-09-2011 , 07:47 PM

#10798

sethypooh21

Make or Miss League

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,037

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAY3R

Warning, contains remarks about body mass

Spoiler:

Thayer, that's enough. Quoting **** that's ok to say on skype doesn't inoculate it from being a FAQ violation here.

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05-09-2011 , 07:49 PM

#10799

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Triumph36

would an FAQ about advanced stats work? i've been asked by people lately about advanced NHL stats, maybe a catch-all FAQ would work for the five major sports on SE?

i think that this is a very good idea, if knowledgeable posters feel like contributing stuff from their areas of interest.