FIFA World Cup pre-tournament discussion - Page 74 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Egypt lost a crucial qualifier against Uganda and struggled against Congo. But they had the burden of 28 years without a World Cup. If their struggles are due to them not being good enough then they basically were lucky that Ghana were awful. If they struggled because of the burden then it's a different story.

Great post. Was 100% burden. The team is solid front to back(bar gk as u say!). Not great, but solid add Salah and 'upsets' could happen.

11-18-2017 , 03:58 PM

#1827

kingweed

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LostOstrich

yeah that whole tournament was a nightmare for me. How the **** Brazil beat Colombia is a question that still wakes me up some nights in a cold sweat.

They got what they deserved/coming in the next game though! Bet they wish Colombia just knocked them out. Can't believe that was 4 years ago, I was in a bar in an Irish bar in Paris watching the game with a load of Germans and Italians. Mental.

I lay USA to get out the group as well

Grats on that clark

11-18-2017 , 04:01 PM

#1828

Cinarocket

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ashley12

Pretty sure Uruguay would have been odds on to advance (as the big three teams as a collective would have been, with Costa Rica having a sub 5% chance).

If we had to guess a line for the pot 3 and 4 teams advancing it is probably like 4.5 out of the 16.

You mean in general or in the costa rica-uruguay case ? I'd very happily give you 4/1 on pot 3 and 4 getting through the group stage for all 8 groups, no way that's an accurate guess imo

Sent from my ALE-L21 using Tapatalk

11-18-2017 , 05:07 PM

#1829

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by martymc1

was hoping someone would ask before I do. no idea what this means.

11-18-2017 , 05:19 PM

#1830

PeteBlow

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Top bracket fan

11-18-2017 , 05:34 PM

#1831

kidcolin

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ah bracket. was like "bluecap bookcase fan" wtf?

11-19-2017 , 06:03 PM

#1832

PartyGirlUK

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Working on the probability of England being drawn in a pot with each team. The numbers for pot one & three are I believe accurate. The numbers for pot four are not accurate but should be close.

11-20-2017 , 09:10 AM

#1833

joejoe1337

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Sorry for potentially obvious question but google doesn't seem to be my friend: Is it a maximum of one team from your own confederation in your group? Or does it work differently?

Edit: nvm found it:

Quote:

No teams from the same confederation, with the exception of UEFA, which could have up to two teams in the same group, will be drawn into the same group.

http://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/news/...e-2907924.html

11-20-2017 , 09:32 AM

#1834

Ra_Z_Boy

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UEFA are the exception because too many teams.

11-20-2017 , 10:35 AM

#1835

TheHip41

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 72off

i mean, it's an obv case of runbad ---> narrative

1996: lose on PKs to Germany
1998: lose on PKs to Argentina
2002: lose 2-1 to Brazil
2004: lose on PKs to Portugal
2006: lose on PKs to Portugal
2012: lose on PKs to Italy

flip a couple of those shootouts and everything is magically different

i mean, they beat Germany in 96 and all of a sudden they're playing the Czechs in the Euro final, and maybe not considered losers forever

this is technically still a poker forum, right?

They also scored vs Germany in he WC QF (I think QF) down 0-1. Ref didn’t see it. Germany gets up 3-0 on counter attacking goals because it’s still 0-1

11-20-2017 , 10:36 AM

#1836

FishNChips1

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Pot 1 gets drawn first, then 2, 3 and 4, right? If that's the case it's very unlikely for us to draw Spain. And if we do it means we get Argentina/Brazil aswell... absolute nightmare that

11-20-2017 , 11:06 AM

#1837

PartyGirlUK

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I'm assuming you're a Scandi? If so your odds of drawing Spain are (I think) 6.8% if it goes 1,2,3,4. If you do you get Argentina or Brazil, yes.

11-20-2017 , 11:22 AM

#1838

FishNChips1

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And yes, I'm a scandi

11-20-2017 , 11:41 AM

#1839

PartyGirlUK

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I'll have more in a while but I think the Scandis are something like (from pot 2)

Spain 6.8%
Peru 15.1%
Switz 6.8%
Eng 6.8%
Colo 15.1%
Mexi 18.5%
Uru 15.1%
Cro 6.8%

The increased chance of facing Mexico comes the fact that Mexico can't face Costa Rica from pot 3, so if, say, Costa Rica got drawn in group 3 where Mexico were, FIFA would put Costa Rica in group 4 & the next drawn team from pot 3 would go with Mexico.

11-20-2017 , 12:01 PM

#1840

Sugar Nut

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ra_Z_Boy

UEFA are the exception because Let's Go UEFA!

fyp

11-20-2017 , 02:55 PM

#1841

sharkstevie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

Working on the probability of England being drawn in a pot with each team. The numbers for pot one & three are I believe accurate. The numbers for pot four are not accurate but should be close.

Let me help you, only probability you need:

England's chances of winning = 0%. HTH.

11-20-2017 , 05:52 PM

#1842

joejoe1337

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Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkstevie

Let me help you, only probability you need:

England's chances of winning = 0%. HTH.

You don't understand m8. Who we lose to is very important.

11-21-2017 , 03:05 AM

#1843

PartyGirlUK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

I'll have more in a while but I think the Scandis are something like (from pot 2)

Spain 6.8%
Peru 17.6%
Switz 6.8%
Eng 6.8%
Colo 17.6%
Mexi 19.8%
Uru 17.6%
Cro 6.8%

There you are. To two decimal places these are the odds of you facing each team if the draw goes group 1 ... group 2 ... group 3 ... group 4.

11-21-2017 , 04:32 AM

#1844

Ra_Z_Boy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by joejoe1337

You don't understand m8. Who we lose to is very important.

Who would be optimal? Ze Germans?

11-21-2017 , 04:38 AM

#1845

joejoe1337

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ra_Z_Boy

Who would be optimal? Ze Germans?

Naw the Germans are old faithful but the meltdown after Costa Rica/Iceland is spectacular.

11-24-2017 , 02:32 AM

#1846

PartyGirlUK

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Assuming they draw it 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

England's chances of facing

Serbia - 6.5%
Nigeria - 12.1%
Australia - 13.5%
Japan - 13.5%
Morocco - 12.1%
Panama - 15.6%
South Korea - 13.5%
Saudi Arabia - 13.5%

11-24-2017 , 04:00 AM

#1847

PartyGirlUK

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Scandis odds of facing various teams assuming they draw it 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Pot 1
CONMEBOL: 18%
UEFA : 11%

Pot 2
CONMEBOL: 18%
UEFA : 7%
CONCACAF: 20%

Pot 4
UEFA : 2.5%
CONCACAF: 11%
CAF : 18%
AFC : 13%

The are some rounding errors but the numbers are accurate.