i think in this case we're pretty much at a "we'll see" point in time.

think that 3 > 2 is prob true, but not strictly. i'd say it depends a lot on the secondary skills of the creators in question. mainly, can they both be useful (as more than decoys) if you intend to let the 3rd creator actually do some creating a large % of the time


edit: i should read more carefully if you are restricting this to stud creators than i prob agree but would then say it's trivially true b/c there are so few stud offensive creators in the nba that assembling 3 is prob too much talent for a defense to deal with

:thumbs up:

You're unfairly and incorrectly cementing me into a position that I don't hold. I'm talking about in this case, with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

I'm not talking about any two creators like having Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo.

Creators are great, but at some point there are diminishing returns. It's never a bad thing that a guy can create but at some point a third, fourth, and fifth creator starts becoming much less valuable.

To take it to the extreme, if Chris Bosh uses zero offensive possessions, he's way less valuable than Rodman. If he uses a ton of possessions on offense he's more valuable. If he uses the optimal (and what I think he'll use with Miami) amount of possessions, he'll be less valuable to them than Rodman imo.

Thats why i used the term "stud". i wouldn't consider OJ/Gay near "stud" level of creation.

Agreed, and I think this point is reached after having 3. You seem to think its 2. This is where we disagree. Players need rest, especially if you're a title contender who wants to keep injury prone players(Wade) healthy and rested for the playoffs. Having 3 stud creators means that you can rest one or two during any game and still have a great offense. It means you can give players a night off if needed. It helps in case of injury.


And again let me say that Bosh, in the role of #3 option, will be able to do a lot more "role player" type of things now imo....I think you're overrating the gap between him and Rodman as role players because you've only seen Bosh as a #1 option.

This part is absolutely possible and will be one of the most interesting things to watch for this year. We really have no clue how he'll do these things. Given how talented he is, it makes sense he can do them pretty well, but like Clark said, he's a huge bitch so who knows.

You can still find another creator somewhere else. It's way more difficult to find someone who can do what Rodman did at the level he did. History will show that pretty clearly.

I 100% disagree. Players who can create at an elite level are the rarest thing in basketball. Maybe Bosh isn't quite "elite", but hes one step below imo.

I think LBJ, Wade, Durant, Dwight, Dirk, Pau, Duncan, Amare, Nash, CP3, Kobe, Melo are all at a similar tier or higher offensively. You could probably argue for Deron and BRoy too. Right below that tier, there's a bunch more great creators.

Now... how many players perform at Rodman's level with a similar skillset (goat offensive rebounding + great post defense)? I don't think there's anyone in the league right now that does it save a healthy Oden. Rodman's offensive rebounding was really insane. Dwight, Prime Ben Wallace, Duncan give you great (or elite) post D but not with the same level of offensive rebounding. There's some guys every year that do it at a much lower level (Birdman, AV types), but nowhere near the amount that can put up a bunch of shots each year.

Additionally, your point about LBJ and Wade needing to rest favors a guy like Rodman more. Sure offense takes effort.. you know what takes even more effort? Playing great defense. We've seen how players can improve offensively when they stop giving as much effort defensively (Devin Harris). When LBJ and Wade have a player who can allow them to focus more of their efforts offensively, the team is a lot better off.

here's how i would think about the problem:

in the context of the heat superteam...
a)how many possessions does rodman gain you over bosh, just from rebounding?
b)how much does bosh improve pts per possession compared to rodman?
c)how much, if at all, does rodman improve pts per possession on defense over bosh?

i'd try to put a number on these things. obviously that's tough-i'm going to be guessing, but it would help me to better understand the relative importance of e.g. rebounding vs. offense.

Being the #1 on a team can be a gift or a curse statistically, with the difference practically impossible to determine using current methods. This season should be an interesting and possibly useful data point however it plays out.

I think a better understanding of Rodman's value might help shed some light on these questions. Knowing that he was a great rebounder definitely isn't enough.

Yeah I'm pretty sure 6'6 PF =/= major scoring threat, especially when you share the court with the goat and a top 50 all time nba'er every night.

that opinion is turrrrrrible

I don't know exactly what you mean by "perfect number" in this context, but I assume you mean that shot-creation is boss until some point around 3 "stud creators," where the diminishing returns finally catch up and other skills may be more valuable.

I'm not really sure I accept the initial premise that an optimal number of creators exists, but aside from that, I'd like to hear the argument for why 3. My completely uninformed intuition is that shot creation should be one of the first skills to suffer diminishing returns, since obv only one person can shoot at a time, and, more importantly, shot creation services aren't required on the majority of plays anyway. So ultimately you're talking about a small set of non-ideal shot situations shared between 1, 2, or 3 people. having 3 is obv better for those shots, but the question is how how much better are they going to shoot on average as a result of having 3 go-to options vs 2 or 1, and how much contribution did they give up in other areas to get there.

so basically, my ignorant assessment is that it looks maybe slightly unlikely to be as high as 3, but I base that on nothing, and I'd love to hear the reasoning behind your opinion.

ASSANI WHAT HAPPENED TO POST DEFENSE AND NOT NEEDING THE BAAAAAAAALL

The Randy Moss post is really, really good.

culpepper destroyed every lig in his knee shortly after moss left. not really fair to use him in this comparison.

Any thoughts about/criticism of the more recent material?

good stuff

Rodman series has come a long way:
http://skepticalsports.com/?page_id=1222

I thought this was being bumped for LOL BOSH reasons because of this post:

Rodman series is finally complete.
Last article: Rodman vs. Jordan. No, seriously: http://skepticalsports.com/?p=1397
Guide page: http://skepticalsports.com/?page_id=1222

Also, Benjamin Morris is currently leading ESPN's True Hoop Stat Geek Smackdown:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playof...e=Smackdown-11

i know you noted that bjordson is an incomplete dataset, but it still feels like you didn't give that enough weight in assessing rodman's relative value. given that his aggregate still falls short of a rusty/old jordan and a gimpy bird (can't remember what magic's deal was), it's hard to believe the invisible value can bridge the gap


also wrt rebounding-- i'm of the opinion that rebounding, offensive rebounding in particular, is as much of a function of scheme/role as say scoring or assists. let me preface the rest of this by noting that i'm obv not saying rodman is not one of the game's elite rebounders ever. the #'s are large enough outliers that it would be foolish to argue such a position; however, i'm taking the stance that just as the guy w/the best scoring efficiency, most points, etc. may not be the best scorer, having the best rebounding rate doesn't automatically make you the best rebounder-- though it clearly puts you in the conversation. yes, i know his rebounding rates are many std dev above others, but again i'm questioning how much of this is a function of role in addition to rodman having elite rebounding abilities.

you showed the usage/win differential plot; an interesting graph no doubt in that it demonstrates that players can do things that "help teams win" without eating up possessions; a coach's wet dream. however, i think limited usage presents an inherent advantage in terms of a player's ability to get oreb, b/c oreb opportunities fluctuate with role (e.g. #shots taken, shot locations, even things like how many screens you set away from the rim). dreb is another story. after laimbeer got old he was ridiculous and idk how it can be explained away by role b/c he played with other good rebounders. ultimately rodman was ridiculously and probably the goat but i believe it's defensible position to argue that someone like an olajuwon, duncan, howard etc could have performed comparably. put another way if we put say olajuwon and rodman matched up on the floor w/the same guys at the other 4 slots and instruct both to get as many rebounds as possible, i'm not prepared to say that rodman bests olajuwon on the basis of his reb #'s (though he could)

the idea of rodman essentially exhibiting as a loophole is interesting. on some neo ****. rodman was a good player deployed as a kicker, in a league where the best players are typically asked to assume multiple roles when certain players are probably better suited to doing one thing extremely well

We have a winner.