Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics)

09-20-2016 , 04:53 PM
I don't buy that the raw number of accounts drives stock price even remotely. I have never once heard it mentioned as a meaningful driver without being connected to revenue or profit figures and don't think any serious investor would see account creation as a motive to buy a bank stock.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS
i think the problem is that he's running a firm which has incentive structures in place such that 5500 employees committed fraud

its not that he came up with and orchestrated a master plan to open all these fake accounts
I agree with this while also maintaining that the argument Warren is making is disingenuous. The reason the CEO made all that money has nothing to do with this scandal, and he certainly is not taking the money this scam generated and walking away scott-free. Any thinking person would have to conclude that the negative exposure and massive fines from the scam almost certainly cost him money way more money then it generated, for him personally.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
I don't buy that the raw number of accounts drives stock price even remotely. I have never once heard it mentioned as a meaningful driver without being connected to revenue or profit figures and don't think any serious investor would see account creation as a motive to buy a bank stock.
I like you but I'm going to lol at you with great prejudice for that take, that's complete trash of the absolute lowest order.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
I'm going to let everyone play with the presumption issue without my interference, but the red is missing the point to a remarkable degree.

If WF can report account growth, that is great news and generates GOOD VIBES for the stock price. This scam generated account growth. That looks great and generated GOOD VIBES for the stock price. There is, therefore, an inventive to lie about account growth that has nothing at all to do with fees or the mere $400,000 in fines.

And let's think harder about this. WF creates fake accounts. Are you seriously arguing right now that the creation of those fake accounts doesn't make sense as an act of fraud because the fake accounts won't generate money?

They're fake. The goal of the scheme is plainly not to generate fees from the fake accounts. How could the fees from the fake accounts be a meaningful element of the potential scheme to establish two million fake accounts?

What, then, is the point of creating two million fake accounts? The point is ___________________________.
The point is that these people making $12 or $15 and hour (numbers the Senators kept bringing up) got to go home on time or stayed employed by creating the accounts. Their bosses got bonuses/raises/promotions for getting their teams to hit their goals. To the business as a whole and the high level executives there is absolutely 0 benefit of these accounts being opened.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:56 PM
Audited Report: "Wells Fargo is outpacing its account generation trajectory! They're doing good business and capturing additional market share!"

CDL: "No serious investor would ever care about that."
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:58 PM
Guys CDL has clearly given 15 minutes of though to how Wall St. works and figured all this stuff out a priori. We can go home.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
If you want to fire him for having 5500 people who are treated like cattle, then I'm all for it.

Anyone who would run a sales model like this is a piece of ****.

But I really don't think they were complicit in fraud.
Agree. Seems like a bad sales culture and he probably did know about how lower level employees were being treated by low level managers. Arguing that this is not a good way to run a company is perfectly valid and should be addressed by any competent board. If the board wants the company run that way then its up to investors to speak out against it if they don't think its getting results, but otherwise its a valid albeit probably terrible business decision.

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Wall St. doesn't care about profit nearly as much as they care about growth. Once a company's projected growth curve starts to level off, the stock price tanks. Tiny changes in growth produce huge changes in a company's expected revenues 3,5,10 years into the future.
investors absolutely do not care about account growth when it has no monetary connection. This is a completely inane line to take.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
The point is that these people making $12 or $15 and hour (numbers the Senators kept bringing up) got to go home on time or stayed employed by creating the accounts. Their bosses got bonuses/raises/promotions for getting their teams to hit their goals. To the business as a whole and the high level executives there is absolutely 0 benefit of these accounts being opened.
Does the $12/hr employee directly benefit from extra accounts? No. So they were pressure to do it.

Would the manager force $12/hr employees to open a bunch of extra accounts if the manager doesn't benefit? No.

Would the manager's manager be happy to have the manager force $12/hr employees to open a bunch of accounts if the manager's manager doesn't benefit? No.

...

Turtles all the way down my friend.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:01 PM
Wall St loves growth.

So 2 million new accounts, let's say that wells fargo can get $50/yr from these new accounts.

That is $100 million/year

Wells Fargo's market cap is 237 Billion.

So this growth constitutes .00042 of Well's Fargo's total Market Cap

That is half of a ten thousandth of a percent.

I know that people value growth, but this is not the growth you are looking for.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist
He was the CEO, his company committed massive fraud.

A society in which CEOs are punished when the company they run commits massive fraud will end up with less massive fraud.

Seems cut and dry to me.
This is fair. However, I don't think it should be the government's job to pressure the CEO or punish them. This should be the board's job (who the CEO reports to) and the board answers to investors. Thus, the shareholders should make the decision and not Senators.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:03 PM
I did that math quick and may have made a mistake, but the point stands.

There is no way this mattered much at all.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:04 PM
having someone do their day to day banking with you is valuable for reasons other than the $50/yr you get from checking account expenses or whatever

eg: existing customers far more likely to come to you when they need to borrow. far easier to cross-sell **** to them. far easier to get them to open a credit card associated w u

establishing a banking relationship with a new customer = £££££. is why banks are throwing money at you to get you to switch to them (at least they are here, i assume they are over there too)
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:05 PM
I think I said this a long time ago, but I would honestly pay like $1,000 to watch CDL argue with Judge Posner for two hours. CDL's takes are the dark matter to Judge Posner's baryonic economic reasoning.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
This is fair. However, I don't think it should be the government's job to pressure the CEO or punish them. This should be the board's job (who the CEO reports to) and the board answers to investors. Thus, the shareholders should make the decision and not Senators.
It is specifically the job of the government (or, more specifically, the market maker). The market maker is what protects ALL participants in an exchange, and particularly the participants who are at the mercy of capital and information asymmetries.

The investors DON'T GIVE A ****. Why should they? Wells Fargo stock price is up over the 5 years this scam was ongoing (and even though it's down since the scam was revealed, it's hardly tanked).
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS
having someone do their day to day banking with you is valuable for reasons other than the $50/yr you get from checking account expenses or whatever

eg: existing customers far more likely to come to you when they need to borrow. far easier to cross-sell **** to them. far easier to get them to open a credit card associated w u

establishing a banking relationship with a new customer = £££££. is why banks are throwing money at you to get you to switch to them (at least they are here, i assume they are over there too)
Did you not see the math Larry did?
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist
Does the $12/hr employee directly benefit from extra accounts? No. So they were pressure to do it.

Would the manager force $12/hr employees to open a bunch of extra accounts if the manager doesn't benefit? No.

Would the manager's manager be happy to have the manager force $12/hr employees to open a bunch of accounts if the manager's manager doesn't benefit? No.

...

Turtles all the way down my friend.
yes the $12/hr employee benefits. Opening a fake account takes less work than getting a real one opened.

How would the 3rd level up from these employees even know the accounts are fake as opposed to real when it behooves the people at lower levels to cover this fact up?
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:10 PM
The numbers that are being discussed here are orders of magnitude off from materially impacting the market cap of the company.

Sorry it is such an emotional topic for some of you, but logically it makes no sense that 400k in fines and 2 million up-sold accounts would make a huge difference to a 237 Billion market company that makes 20 Billion in profit.

I mean lol.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
Audited Report: "Wells Fargo is outpacing its account generation trajectory! They're doing good business and capturing additional market share!"

CDL: "No serious investor would ever care about that."
IDK if this came from a 10-K or what, but these are extremely long and detailed documents and I can assure you they have lots of things in them that do not matter at all to investors.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:13 PM
At Wells Fargo, the buck stops...at the teller window!
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
yes the $12/hr employee benefits. Opening a fake account takes less work than getting a real one opened.
They don't benefit from the fake account unless:
(a) their boss gives them a benefit for opening an account
(b) they have profit sharing / stock options

This is true of the manager. And the manager's manager.

Someone is in charge.

Quote:
How would the 3rd level up from these employees even know the accounts are fake as opposed to real when it behooves the people at lower levels to cover this fact up?
Good thing Wells Fargo happens to be in a business where one of their chief concerns is using data to detect anomalous / fraudulent activity.

http://gizmodo.com/how-banks-use-mac...g-y-1744771152

Again, if they gave the slightest **** about this, and didn't know it was happening, they are grossly incompetent.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist
It is specifically the job of the government (or, more specifically, the market maker). The market maker is what protects ALL participants in an exchange, and particularly the participants who are at the mercy of capital and information asymmetries.

The investors DON'T GIVE A ****. Why should they? Wells Fargo stock price is up over the 5 years this scam was ongoing (and even though it's down since the scam was revealed, it's hardly tanked).
The government should be responsible for pursuing people who committed crimes. Like I said before, if Stumpf was complicit then he should be charged criminally. If he merely didn't know then he shouldn't. The people who knew should be pursued by the government.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:15 PM
I'm no Wall St analyst but to my simple mind if a company is aggressively demanding that its sales staff hit certain targets for the sales of certain products, and actively punishing those who fail to hit these targets, then the sales of these products are assumed to be profitable for the business.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:16 PM
Larry, you are calculating the impact of the account growth based upon the potential direct fines. I just explained why this is a total and fundamental failure to comprehend the scheme.

2,000,000 fake accounts is not .0011365316136 or whatever you said growth in accounts. It is not infinitesimal growth in accounts. It is meaningful growth in accounts. That's the whole point - no investor can possibly know the accounts are not going to perform because they are entirely fake.

Wells Fargo has approximately 40,000,000 retail customers. 2,000,000 new accounts is not necessarily 2,000,000 new customers, but it is a notable increase in purported banking activity.

You don't seem to get that to an investor every single one of those accounts is a legitimately generated sale that carries with it the promise of profit generation. That is what growth is.

The lol is with you, sorry.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:17 PM
Put differently, ONLY the bank, which KNOWS the accounts are FAKE, can KNOW the accounts will not generate ****.

That's like the most textbook obvious fraud ever. This isn't hard.
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
09-20-2016 , 05:19 PM
Bank: "Hey look, our existing banking customers open new active accounts at a rate 5% greater than our competitors!"

Larry and CDL: "LOL IRRELEVANT"
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote

      
m