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Originally Posted by schu_22
I understand your points and agree with most of them; however let me play devil's advocate and post the counterarguments: Rubio has almost no forces on the ground in the early states, and is polling badly. Generally a bad strategy for a favored candidate. Betting markets are legit, sure, but eventually we have to have something to show for Rubio that he is making strides on the ground and winning votes - and winning momentum. He is losing both at the moment.
He is the establishment choice right now FOR SURE. This isn't debatable. But we're 5 weeks out from the Iowa caucuses and the movement that needs to happen hasn't started. And after New Years, we'll have less than 4 weeks for that public momentum to shift in the direction that the GOP wants. Can it happen? Sure! Will it happen? Remains to be seen.
Put it this way, there's a reason I thought that Cruz +250 was a good bet.
I'm sure Nate Silver has covered this in detail somewhere but I can't find it atm. I could be wrong but, in recent primary races, the polls in December have changed quite a bit by the end of the primaries.
I'm sure the polls hold true much more when there's one clear candidate, but that's obviously not the case this year with the Republicans. In the last couple primaries, the biggest, most predictive movement in the polls has come in January. With the Republican race being relatively wide open, I think it's fair to believe that may be the case this year as well. If Rubio hasn't made serious movement in the polls in a month, it's probably time for his camp to panic.