I think Cruz has a better chance at winning the general than Rubio, though ironically enough Rubio has a better chance at the primary due to "electability". I think Cruz could be a lot worse for the country but I don't think Rubio is good at all, just your standard backed by lobbyists politician.

Yeah.

Strangely, I think Rubio's extreme hawkishness (which has basically gone unnoticed) would be disastrous. Cruz is pretty hawkish, but he's the sort of politician where everything he says is like water off a duck's back; it doesn't mean anything and who knows. And since Rubio is the most hawkish, maybe we'd be better off with Cruz. In that area.

Yeah I could see that. Cruz is more the do anything it takes to be president guy which could quite easily be better than the establishment's choice.

I'm sure Nate Silver has covered this in detail somewhere but I can't find it atm. I could be wrong but, in recent primary races, the polls in December have changed quite a bit by the end of the primaries.





I'm sure the polls hold true much more when there's one clear candidate, but that's obviously not the case this year with the Republicans. In the last couple primaries, the biggest, most predictive movement in the polls has come in January. With the Republican race being relatively wide open, I think it's fair to believe that may be the case this year as well. If Rubio hasn't made serious movement in the polls in a month, it's probably time for his camp to panic.

That's good stuff mjw

Again to play devil's advocate, cherry-picking "polls in December" in a vacuum is also bad statistics.

Every election is so different in terms of the political climate that we're facing that I dont' think that any single historical polling cycle is very useful.

Looks like 538 actually just did something on Rubio yesterday:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...roperly-rated/

I think the last part from Silver is probably pretty accurate:

Yeah I actually read that; part of my decision to bet Cruz +250.

I'm trying to imagine, more and more, a Rubio, who lacks in the public speaking department, who has little ground support; winning the nomination starting from the beginning, and imagining the possible routes to doing so. My judgement determined that a Rubio +165 vs a Cruz +250... Cruz was a far better option.

Rubio lacks in the public speaking department? He's not emotional but he definitely knows what he's doing in terms of public speaking. His body language, rhetoric, pacing, etc. is pretty textbook. I think the perception of him in terms of his public speaking suffers from the Republican candidates around him. Getting up and shouting inanely is not good public speaking, but it's gets the headlines and people perceive it as good public speaking. It's not. Put Rubio next to Hillary and you're going to get a much calmer debate. And I think the perception of his public speaking changes dramatically in that context.

For anyone really curious about economics and wants an easy to read introductory to some of the basic principles of economics and the state's effects on the economy, here is a free version of Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson"

http://fee.org/resources/economics-in-one-lesson-2/

It touches on a lot of the common fallacies people may make

And I don't even like Rubio, I would never vote for him. But I do think he's handled himself and his campaign really well thus far.

Compared to most of the candidates? Yeah he's quite good. Compared to Cruz and Trump? He's bland and low-energy (sorry to use a Trump-ism)

Comparing him to Hillary is the wrong comparison...he isn't winning the nomination against Hillary. He's winning it against Cruz and Trump. Both of them dominate him on the debate stage in terms of the volume of their presentation. Of course he'd be best against Hillary and the best in the general; I'm not arguing with you there. That's pretty much a fact. But for the nomination.... he has major work to do.

Nothing whatsoever in the early states. This cannot be a positive.

That's a great link...will definitely read. Is there anything in particular you want to point us to?

All the chapters are really good and touch on interesting topics, some may be more particularly interesting to you than others. He does a really great job at explaining How the Price System Works, and The Assault on Saving chapter seems possibly relevant. The Curse of Machinery is a good one considering we're approaching such a heavily automated future.

I actually think at this point Cruz would be better for the country than Trump or Rubio. Cruz just wants to be president and there seems like at least a nonzero chance he let's the states decide some stuff rather than the federal gov, which would be better than Trumps attempt to turn us into a dictatorship.

If Trump wins his vp candidate will be someone moderate and likely someone who isn't in the primary.

I don't think you know enough Cruz if you think that TuT

I think I have a pretty good grasp on him. I've been reading a lot about him. There's tons of evidence about him saying different things to different donors/voters. That makes me feel confident he doesn't truly care about most of the issues. And someone like that scares me a lot less than an ideological zealot.

For example

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...t-audio-217090

This is like, exactly the opposite of the truth. Cruz is a nutjob idealogue and there's no way he doesn't do things like push for a one-man one-woman amendment. He's all about doing dramatic **** in the name of 'principles'.

Trump, on the other hand, is in it for the ego. He's the one that's in it just to say he was president.

Thinking anyone would be better than trump at making America great again is preposterous

You're really just flat out wrong.

Nah, he's not. If the only two choices were between Cruz and Trump and I had to vote I have no idea who I would end up voting for.

I'd vote Trump.

Ainec