John Hinckley Jr. set to be released today. Anyone checked on Jodie Foster?

yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. that is Trump out-campaigning people.

Hillary btw I don't think is doing any better than those guys were. She seems to be using the same exact tactics afaik. she of course has the large party advantage which those guys didn't have, but I don't think she is running any sort of effective anti-Trump campaign. any more than those guys did anyways. the DNC is going on and half of what we're hearing about is Trump

Yes, that's what worries me. I see a distressing attitude among Hillary supporters where they feel entitled to votes and don't think they have to actually rally support and convince people. Like other people's votes are negated if they aren't smart enough to realize how much obviously better than Trump Clinton is. Or like what appeals to white educated liberals should appeal to the rest of the country, and if it doesn't, well, who wants those idiots on our side anyway?

My favorite moment of the GOP primary is still easily

"My mom is the strongest woman I know--"
"--She should be running."

not the case imo, you may have big problems with the blue half but they dont say objectively wrong and highly dangerous stuff like 'man made climate change is a myth put about by eggheads and/or chinese', 'more guns = more safeness', 'creationism belongs in the classroom' and so on. btw when i refer to repubs as not grown up im not talking about the small state low taxes bill buckley goat blah blah blah ones, i'm talking about those that are unencumbered by knowable facts aka drumpf's core constituency

one unrelated ~25% outcome binking is not gonna make me rethink a lifetime's slavish devotion to der markt

yeah that's it.

you probably haven't seen this, it's obviously parody, but the part they are making fun of is actually the problem. and I don't think the author realizes it.

Winner take all two party systems, where the entire range of left/right opinion is divided in two block, without any party control on who gets nominated are just democratic weapons of mass destruction.

Letting a plurality of motivated party wingnuts chose a candidate that then has the backing of the entire party and will be one of only two candidates is incredibly irresponsible.

It's not a coincidence that Labour ended up with Corbyn the first time they tried one member, one vote. Had the entire right of centre UK had an open primary to elect a leader they could easily have ended up with some UKIP/right-wing tory nut. And even then having to actually lead a party in parliament before/after an election, instead of moving straight to the presidency, is something of a safety vale. Had France used the US system the last election could easily have been between Le Pen and Mélenchon.

The scandal this year isnt that the democrats halfheartedly tried to rig their primary but that the republicans didnt try harder to rig theirs.

to be fair if you watch these videos of him saying absolutely ****ing nothing i don't think you could do a better job writing up the description of it

[I mean, I have big problems with all of America. But it's not about me.]

99% of all voters are pretty much unencumbered by knowable facts.

Yeah - I pretty much knew this would be the repost. In a vacuum it's obviously right. But it's just very unclear to me that we really are in a vacuum.

People all over Europe are very pissed off. (Independently of whether that's right or wrong from any observer's pov.) They then, when given a chance to vote, grasp at different non-conventional political party solutions. Sometimes there are enough people doing that to make a significant impact, sometimes not. But this is not the same politics as that which prevailed from the end of WW2 to 2008.

You would have thought that Der Markt would incorporate this. I don't think it really does, because I don't think the analytical players have adequate models for these effects when they first arise (obviously once one re-runs elections in Spain every 6 months then modelling Podemos or Ciudadanos becomes easier).

I don't go to the USA, but I would not be shocked if this was happening there as well.

DNC house band RIPPING IT UP.

Discrepancy between the betting market and 538 is surprising. They have tracked somewhat closely prior to now.

Video to air tonight

538 has been bad for many months now, Upshot at NYT has been better this year.

Here is their forecast:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-forecast.html

Great video.

What if I told you I just came up with the best primary voting system.

I got BARRY slaying tonight.

god damn this is good

Are you critical of 538's analysis of polling data or of their (for me bizarre) editorializing?

If it is the former: what criteria are you using and why - on 'theoretical'/'objective' grounds - is "Upshot" better. (And, given they work for the same organization, why don't they converge?)

As for the latter, I see that they are paid by masters with political goals and so may feel obliged to cheerlead in particular directions (presumably against what their analysis is telling them??? maybe???, but maybe in line with their political prejudices). I would have thought that the brand value was more important than that to Nate, but maybe he feels (given the Supreme Court situation) - to horribly mix my metaphors - that this is the time to cash in his chips and put his fingers on the scale.

video domer posted is excellent

actual footage of BARRY preparing for tonight's speech:

+1. he may not mention trump but i hope he does. Barry OWNS trump.

if you want to avoid a trump from taking over the party it almost has to be party insiders voting or at least screening the field. maybe insiders picking a couple of candidates and leaving those two to compete in a public vote.

if you let the public vote and then dont follow their choice they'll riot and bring their riffles when they march on the convention.

What if in the primary you could only vote for the other party? So republicans would vote for the democratic nominee, and vice versa. We would be in a much better situation right now.

Seems thought through...

you mean what if we just changed the names?