riverman, what are your projected S&P500 returns over the next 3m/12m/3yr/5yr/10yr?

Downturn would be good for me, more shares for the same contribution. But I have 40 years til retirement

Fading Riverman never fails.

Alright. I will bet anyone on here up to $10k that over the next 4 years the market does not return over 6%.

Probably wanna add annualized before someone snap calls.

Ok. Say you're correct and that you should dump your money right now into tax free munis and cash. Keep in mind if you did this before the election when the market was overvalued by historical metrics you would have missed out on about 15% gain. But let's ignore that and assume the market starts crashing tomorrow.

At which point will you reinvest? Will you buy on any temporary bounces? What's your projection for when the market bottoms out? Will you reinvest all your assets in the market at that point or do it periodically?

Your last paragraph doesn't make sense. You can't say indexing is correct, but not now. The entire point of indexing is that you CAN'T market time or beat the market as an ordinary retail investor so your best bet is to just continue investing instead of trying to guess at market timing which is impossible.

But 6% per year (assuming you mean per year) is a good return when 10-year bonds are yielding 2.6%!

Lol

1999: My tech-stock-obsessed uncle is asking me stuff like "Is XML the next Linux?" The Motley Fool message boards are filled with bears who make tons of sense, and bulls whose only main argument is "pppppptttthhhhh my stock is going up bro".

2006: I receive an approval for a $600k (or maybe $500k - can't remember for sure - in any case it was way more than I could afford) loan based on $86k income. I am also told I can go higher, provide no documentation to show my income, or provide no down payment - no problem. Just gonna be a higher interest rate. Constant articles are coming out about all the subprime loans that are doomed to blow up in a few years.

2017: ?


In the first two cases I knew something was really wrong, and actually planned my finances and job situation around expecting a crash. In 2017 what's the "mailman asking me about stocks" equivalent? Private equity I guess. Is that gonna bring the whole house down? (Note: I do not give a crap what zerohedge thinks about this.)

https://twitter.com/GuyEndoreKaiser/...30031771103233

Closest thing I've come across to this on a regular basis is Marijuana stocks. But that's mostly just the typical idiot penny stock speculator. Nothing as mainstream as your other examples.

You will be able to find something in hindsight easily

How is this relevant at all lol

Riverman, if you have an asset class that you'd like to wager will outperform the S&P500 (and I'll grant you cash at 0% if you want that) and a timeframe in mind (sounds like 4 years) then I might be willing to bet. Wouldn't mind keeping the funds invested in our two asset classes in the meantime and paying out the higher of our bet amount and our bet amount times opponent's total return.

I'll do that too

10k on vtsax 5 years vs whatever if u want

I'll even accept your payment in the form of silver bars or comic books or whatever you have a stockpile of in 2022

I'll take 500 bucks. VTSAX, 5 year returns as of 2/28/2022 (or 3/31/22 if you prefer) over/under 6% annualized.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...tExt=INT#tab=1

edit: oops, 4 year, thought it said 5. Still in for 4 years at 500

Lol at 4 and 5 year bets.

"Over the next 4 years" is so lol

The bet he offered has nothing to do with the wrongness of his posts.

Betting that the market will have x%return over only a 4 year span is just as foolish as going into cash because you think stocks are too expensive.

Also lol at his suggestion of going into tax free munis as some kind of short term solution. You'll earn jack **** on ultra short term munis and if you plan on venturing out past a few years as some kind of idiotic plan of hiding there until the glorious EQUITY CORRECTION finally comes there's a pretty good chance of u getting completely smoked in munis if you're not holding to maturity.

I guess the lol part was the collection process.

"You remember that bet me made 4 years ago? You owe me $500"

The point is that he may even be a small favorite in that bet. Decent enough chance he's right and that we have correction and can't recoup enough of it in 4 years. But to act on that and jeopardize the total return of your long-term retirement savings on a mostly uneducated hunch is both irresponsible and stupid.

There's no short term bet that can settle it. Just the factual statement of "me/Disko/mullen/etc will have a better total return than riverman over the next 25 years and we know that as a fact because he'll do stupid **** throughout that period like blow out of stock and put it into muni bonds trying to time a correction and we won't. "

You guys are just making me reminisce about the $100 bet i had over like two years with awal over the republican nomination. He had 5 non-trumps and I had the field. Pyrrhic victory obv.

I remember when Zimmer gave me 4-1 that Michigan would beat OSU before ND beat USC. FTR I won it in year two with ND as a 4 point dog while Michigan kicked off as an 18 point dog. Good times.