Quote:
Originally Posted by Melkerson
I think the thesis is supposed to be that people in the latter group didn't read 538 or similar sources, so they never got the memo that "this person isn't going to win". Not sure if that qualifies as mental gymnastics, but I suppose that's in the eye of the beholder.
my thesis is based on the assumption that the people who actually read 538 aren't likely to fall on the spectrum of complacency because the election is in the bag because they read it enough to understand that is 100% not true no matter what the odds say
having said that 538 and NYT were given exceptional credibility by the casual via MSM to the point that merely hearing in passing on CNN or MSNBC or insert MSM here that "538 says ____" "NYT says _____" without any context being offered would lead the casual to believe that it's over no matter what. i believe that bred complacency, or a greater willingness for a protest vote (see: trump, stein, johnson, harambe) because they're so certain clinton is going to win they didn't need to vote for her even if their preference was for clinton to be president over trump. when you're overwhelmingly inundated with polls being spewed by every network telling you clinton is a shoe-in to such an extent that the republican party spent the last month and a half of the campaign doing damage control operating on the assumption they were losing both the presidency and the senate, yes, that 100% breeds a non-zero (and probably a deciding percentage given how narrow the win was) amount of complacency among the winning side in advance
it's like how there were people who voted for brexit when they were actually against it happening simply because they were so assured by polls there was no chance of it happening so they could feel free to protest with their vote