Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
I mean if we kept everything the same. Im not saying if we ran it tomorrow. Or if we ran it knowing what we know now.
Im saying if there are 100 parallel universes, hil wins in most of them. Proly like 70% of the time or whatever nate said. So does bern tho.
Yeah this is what I meant by I dont think probability works that way. Before the election we could say that Trump had a 5% chance or a 20% chance or whatever, but that probability is an assessment of our ignorance, not of what is actually happening in the world. We no longer have that ignorance. So the only things that would have been different in your scenario would be truly random things, or things about which we are STILL ignorant. I cant see any reason to think that any of those things would favor Clinton.
We are not really arguing about anything important here but it is kind of an interesting discussion, there are obviously other views on what exactly probability means.