Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
so nuts to not kick the penalty there. nfl-like levels of incompetency. horrible that they didn't prepare for that possibility. (ignore all this paragraph if i am wrong but i don't think i am).
yeah this was much closer than i was making out.
if england win by 4 australia need to win by 20, which is a coinflip apparently. so if they are 10% to score on that last play(?) they are 5% to qualify.
if england kick the penalty (85% to make it?) they go through if fiji win, which is a 9% shot. 7.6%.
put another way, the draw only affects matters if samoa win by > 8.
anyhow i just put more thought into it than anyone in the england camp.