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 05-23-2020, 01:15 AM #1 Dominic Tripod     Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Vegas Posts: 69,798 Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea Okay, I have literally no experience betting on horses beyond a few days back in the 80s going to the NJ Meadowlands to watch the harness racing so I could yell, "Hit'em!" as they came down the stretch. So obviously, my full-proof horse-betting idea will 100% work. Here it is: Bet on every horse in the race. But you determine how much to bet on each horse by the odds the horse is running at. Someone who actually is good at math will be able to figure this out better than me, but say the favorite is at 2-1 and the long shot is at 55-1. You determine the best +EV or EV neutral amount to bet on every horse, with the favorite being bet on with the most money, and the long shot being bet on with the least amount of money. and every horse in between being bet on the right amount that is determined by it's odds in the race, from 2nd favorite to 2nd long shot. Like I said, I have no idea how to calculate this, but one of you poker nerds should be able to do it. As an example, say you bet like this: Horse 1. Odds: 2-1. You bet \$100. Horse 2. Odds: 3-1. You bet \$X. . . . Horse 9. Odds: 60-1. You bet \$5. There MUST be some sort of equation that would allow you to bet the right amount for each horse from favorite down to long shot, that would be the most +EV. Some equilibrium of bets from highest to smallest. This will obviously work and will bust every parimutuel racetrack in the country. To be fair, I am high on a THC gummie right now, and it could just be nonsense. What do you think?
 05-23-2020, 05:31 AM #2 sixfour should be called sevenfour     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Tungsten Analysis Posts: 66,725 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea Was thinking this was a report of someone going to Cheltenham this year
 05-23-2020, 05:38 AM #3 Tuma Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: gerudo wasteland Posts: 14,021 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea An equation that helps you overcome losing 11/12 of the time sounds remarkable.
 05-23-2020, 06:33 AM #4 AALegend old hand   Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Philly Posts: 1,807 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea The reason it will not work is because of the thing called vig/juice/rake. The same applies to the moneyline bet on a Football game, where one team is -130, while the other one is +110. Sure, you can bet on them proportionally to the line, but then you are just guaranteeing that you will lose to the vig.
 05-23-2020, 08:23 AM #5 Bidz '17 from Wentz he came     Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: 10 hours from the f*ckin fun park Posts: 22,762 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea
05-23-2020, 09:22 AM   #6
All-inMcLovin
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Join Date: Oct 2007
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bidz
lolololololol

 05-23-2020, 09:26 AM #7 Rebelp adept   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 774 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea A bookie I used to go to had a promotion where you selected a horse every day and be awarded points if it won depending on the odds (So 10 points if your selection won at 10/1). Most points at the end of the week won a free bet. Most customers could not work out that it was a better to go for five selections at 20/1+ rather than trying to select five winners at 2/1
05-23-2020, 10:17 AM   #8
All-inMcLovin
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rebelp A bookie I used to go to had a promotion where you selected a horse every day and be awarded points if it won depending on the odds (So 10 points if your selection won at 10/1). Most points at the end of the week won a free bet. Most customers could not work out that it was a better to go for five selections at 20/1+ rather than trying to select five winners at 2/1
#mathandnumbers

05-23-2020, 12:52 PM   #9
Dominic
Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Vegas
Posts: 69,798
Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bidz

05-23-2020, 01:02 PM   #10
Da_Nit
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Houston via Ruff Buffalo, NY
Posts: 3,625
Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dominic

I was there for that top gif, Josh Allen is riding a roller coaster controlled by a drunk carnie. Man that sucked.

 05-23-2020, 01:45 PM #11 FallawayJumper centurion     Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 132 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea ....................... what you propsed won't work for the reasons already stated you can't make a +EV or a neutral EV bet on a horse that is a bad bet (underlay) no matter what the amount bet is but it is very similar to a strategy called dutching which some claim does work and quite a few do use it there are several ways to do it - the most common is to bet against what you believe is a false favorite for example the fave is 4/5 and you believe that is a terrible bet - that he should be 5/2 you then bet against the favorite to win with what you believe are the best 3 bets for example, the next 3 you want to bet on are 3/1........4/1.........and 5/1 you spread \$100 around this way: \$42 on the 3/1.............if he wins you net \$68 \$32 on the 4/1.............if he wins you net \$60 \$26 on the 5/1.............if he wins you net \$56 it's far from being the key to the mint but there are players who do it and like it are they long term winners?..............................doubtful many do it with just 2 horses some might use 4 if the odds are high enough their logic is: it's better than an exacta box because the takeout on a win bet is usually much less than the takeout on an exacta bet
 05-23-2020, 02:59 PM #12 Dominic Tripod     Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Vegas Posts: 69,798 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea lol thank you for taking the time to explain that, Fallaway, even if I was just being silly. I think of stupid things when I'm chewing on gummies.
 05-23-2020, 03:51 PM #13 Bidz '17 from Wentz he came     Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: 10 hours from the f*ckin fun park Posts: 22,762 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea gummies are awesome and so is Dom I just couldn't resist
 05-23-2020, 04:16 PM #14 Rebelp adept   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 774 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea Is chewing on gummies a source of sexual gratification? Must be
05-23-2020, 07:22 PM   #15
Dominic
Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Vegas
Posts: 69,798
Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rebelp Is chewing on gummies a source of sexual gratification? Must be
?

No, it just makes you a little high.

 05-23-2020, 07:28 PM #16 RT Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 41,552 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
 05-23-2020, 08:07 PM #17 ukbilly old hand   Join Date: Apr 2018 Location: Inside several personalities. Posts: 1,362 Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea In my experience, stupid bets are the ones that make money, the dead certs are the ones that karma comes out and spits in your face whilst wearing a 12 inch strap on. My point ? I honestly don't know.
05-23-2020, 08:14 PM   #18
Dominic
Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Vegas
Posts: 69,798
Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RT ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
dammit!

Yesterday, 05:24 AM   #19
All-inMcLovin
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: FLOP SO HARD POPOVICH WANNA SIGN ME
Posts: 32,928
Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RT ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
LOLOLOL

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