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Old 05-23-2020, 01:15 AM   #1
Dominic
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Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Okay, I have literally no experience betting on horses beyond a few days back in the 80s going to the NJ Meadowlands to watch the harness racing so I could yell, "Hit'em!" as they came down the stretch.

So obviously, my full-proof horse-betting idea will 100% work.

Here it is:

Bet on every horse in the race. But you determine how much to bet on each horse by the odds the horse is running at. Someone who actually is good at math will be able to figure this out better than me, but say the favorite is at 2-1 and the long shot is at 55-1.

You determine the best +EV or EV neutral amount to bet on every horse, with the favorite being bet on with the most money, and the long shot being bet on with the least amount of money. and every horse in between being bet on the right amount that is determined by it's odds in the race, from 2nd favorite to 2nd long shot.

Like I said, I have no idea how to calculate this, but one of you poker nerds should be able to do it.

As an example, say you bet like this:

Horse 1. Odds: 2-1. You bet $100.
Horse 2. Odds: 3-1. You bet $X.
.
.
.
Horse 9. Odds: 60-1. You bet $5.

There MUST be some sort of equation that would allow you to bet the right amount for each horse from favorite down to long shot, that would be the most +EV. Some equilibrium of bets from highest to smallest.

This will obviously work and will bust every parimutuel racetrack in the country. To be fair, I am high on a THC gummie right now, and it could just be nonsense.

What do you think?
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:31 AM   #2
sixfour
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Was thinking this was a report of someone going to Cheltenham this year
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:38 AM   #3
Tuma
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

An equation that helps you overcome losing 11/12 of the time sounds remarkable.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:33 AM   #4
AALegend
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

The reason it will not work is because of the thing called vig/juice/rake.

The same applies to the moneyline bet on a Football game, where one team is -130, while the other one is +110. Sure, you can bet on them proportionally to the line, but then you are just guaranteeing that you will lose to the vig.
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:23 AM   #5
Bidz
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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Old 05-23-2020, 09:22 AM   #6
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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Originally Posted by Bidz View Post
lolololololol
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Old 05-23-2020, 09:26 AM   #7
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

A bookie I used to go to had a promotion where you selected a horse every day and be awarded points if it won depending on the odds (So 10 points if your selection won at 10/1). Most points at the end of the week won a free bet. Most customers could not work out that it was a better to go for five selections at 20/1+ rather than trying to select five winners at 2/1
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:17 AM   #8
All-inMcLovin
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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Originally Posted by Rebelp View Post
A bookie I used to go to had a promotion where you selected a horse every day and be awarded points if it won depending on the odds (So 10 points if your selection won at 10/1). Most points at the end of the week won a free bet. Most customers could not work out that it was a better to go for five selections at 20/1+ rather than trying to select five winners at 2/1
#mathandnumbers
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:52 PM   #9
Dominic
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bidz View Post
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:02 PM   #10
Da_Nit
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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I was there for that top gif, Josh Allen is riding a roller coaster controlled by a drunk carnie. Man that sucked.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:45 PM   #11
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

.......................

what you propsed won't work for the reasons already stated
you can't make a +EV or a neutral EV bet on a horse that is a bad bet (underlay) no matter what the amount bet is

but it is very similar to a strategy called dutching which some claim does work and quite a few do use it

there are several ways to do it - the most common is to bet against what you believe is a false favorite

for example the fave is 4/5 and you believe that is a terrible bet - that he should be 5/2

you then bet against the favorite to win with what you believe are the best 3 bets

for example, the next 3 you want to bet on are 3/1........4/1.........and 5/1



you spread $100 around this way:

$42 on the 3/1.............if he wins you net $68
$32 on the 4/1.............if he wins you net $60
$26 on the 5/1.............if he wins you net $56




it's far from being the key to the mint
but there are players who do it and like it
are they long term winners?..............................doubtful



many do it with just 2 horses
some might use 4 if the odds are high enough

their logic is:

it's better than an exacta box because the takeout on a win bet is usually much less than the takeout on an exacta bet
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:59 PM   #12
Dominic
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

lol thank you for taking the time to explain that, Fallaway, even if I was just being silly.

I think of stupid things when I'm chewing on gummies.
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:51 PM   #13
Bidz
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

gummies are awesome and so is Dom

I just couldn't resist
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:16 PM   #14
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Is chewing on gummies a source of sexual gratification? Must be
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:22 PM   #15
Dominic
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

Quote:
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Is chewing on gummies a source of sexual gratification? Must be
?

No, it just makes you a little high.
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:28 PM   #16
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:07 PM   #17
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

In my experience, stupid bets are the ones that make money, the dead certs are the ones that karma comes out and spits in your face whilst wearing a 12 inch strap on. My point ? I honestly don't know.
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:14 PM   #18
Dominic
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
dammit!
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Old Yesterday, 05:24 AM   #19
All-inMcLovin
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Re: Really Stupid Horse Betting Idea

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ITT Dom bets on all 36 numbers and it comes up 0
LOLOLOL
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