170 and 158 outs from Whitlock to win the match, filthy

well the guy is pretty filthy

Lerchbacher looked OK in the prelim, my 8/1 vs Thornton looking decent given Rob's got his priorities right:

Zoran still good if he tightens up his doubles, had shots in the first four legs

As an aside, say someone established like Newton, Hamilton, Baxter etc had made it to the prelims through the qualifier and won - you reckon the PDC makes them use Gala over Kiss/MC Hammer/Queen?

Well this has descended into a clown show

Found the first round really boring. The prelims bar 1 have all been way to long. Change it back to a best of legs. Keep the sets for the tournament.

yeah, there's been a lot of favourites winning and not too many shocks, but i don't think the standard's been that bad

disagree with the prelim game, unless you make it best of 11 legs minimum - but at that stage you still need to win as many legs as you do to win two sets. it's not like they have tiebreaks in the third. i think it's mostly that there's been mostly deliberate players in them, and they could dispense with the break after set 1, then again $$$$$. plus if they're even shorter, the chinese guy cadby plays probably doesn't get so tired that after the game he falls over the oche

I said it before, the prelims don't need to be played on the stage/at the venue/on tv.

But w/e, I'm not really that bothered. I don't really watch much pre-Christmas.

Prelims are obviously good for them since now they have 10 first round sessions (32 first round games, 8 prelims) rather than 8 before (4 first rounders and a prelim). Its lets the nights finish earlier (we were there until beyond midnight for Whitlock vs some bum 3 years ago, now they will likely be done by 11).

I think the format is fine. With all the foreigners playing prelims it would suck nuts to go out there and play best of 7 legs, get rolled 4-1 in 10 minutes and go home. The prelims also mean there is incentive to buy tickets and rock up late, as there is never a superstar/seed on first up.

Likely missing most of tonight, but there's six round 2 games tomorrow:

White (5/9) vs Clayton (7/4) - Clayton didn't need to do a great deal against a woefully underperforming Price, White didn't have to do a great deal against a woeful Simm, neither got out of the 80's on the averages as the other guy was dragging them down, but White only had two winning legs (from 9) in 15 darts or less, everything else being 18 or equivalent barring one seven visit and one eight visit kill, whereas Clayton had five from eleven legs won in 15, with 4 being in 18 and the other in 21, excepting the comedy opening leg where he won in nine visits. Form temporary class permanent perhaps, but White's class on TV hasn't shown all year, so a quick 0.5u Clayton 7/4 seems in order.

Smith (8/15) vs King (15/8) - Backed both of these to lose in round one, both of these won in deciding sets, Smith being 2-1 down in sets then being broken in the opening leg of the fourth, before kicking into gear and winning six straight legs. King on the other hand was two sets to nil down, in real turmoil after losing the first set in a sweep then blowing a 2-0 lead in the second, then West couldn't drop the hammer, missing one match dart on throw in the third set in a deciding leg, losing the fourth, not getting a dart at double on 116 for the match in the fifth, missing two clean darts in the tiebreak at tops and d10, missing five to make it 5-4 before being broken, then letting King win in 18 without having a throw at an outshot. Both have been pretty AIDS all year and neither looked great here, but Smith had better power scoring and the checkouts were comparable, so I'm leaving alone

van de Pas (8/11) vs Jenkins (13/10) - Benito was solid on doubles, but apart from a spell late in the second and early in the third against Shah wasn't really scoring that great, ending up losing the third set against the qualifier. Jenkins opened up well but fell apart midway through leg 4, missed six darts for the set, but was then able to take advantage of Payne playing meh, winning a bunch in six visits before hitting the afterburners in set four, with back to back four visit legs and then scraping home in the final leg. Benito seems more consistent, has been playing better all year and is in the ascendancy rather than in the twilight of his career, so 1u van de Pas 8/11

Whitlock (8/15) vs Webster (15/8) - Very quick turnaround for the Wizard, who averaged 98, had more 140+ scores than 100-139 (aided by two huge checkouts to close out the last set), winning with more 15 darters or less than more, which seems solid. Webster needed overtime to beat Bunting who fell apart from a won position, but averaged nearly 95, had a comparable 100:140 ratio to Whitlock, and needed to grind, the fourth set being won in 41 darts, and of the 15 legs he won, nine were in 15 darts or less including four four visit kills. Webster is certainly live here and has already beaten one player seeded better than Whitlock, although that means little given Whitlock's overall form. I think Simon holds enough that I won't bet the dog here

Anderson (1/16) vs Gilding (25/2) - LOL

Lewis (1/3) vs Cullen (11/4) - Lewis had more 140's than 100's as well as five maximums, but only averaged 93 - less than one in three on checkouts, and seemed to take a few legs off when Caris won, as well as winning legs in seven and eight visits. If he does that against Cullen, he'll get exploited, Cullen's scoring was equally impressive, his opponent was far superior to Caris and averaged 98 himself, Cullen checked out better and now finally has a win on this stage. Cullen didn't need more than 15 darts to win any of his first seven legs, which is really consistent. Lewis isn't this big of a favourite so 0.25u Cullen 11/4

Maximiser!

Yessssss

King vs Smith was a very solid match

benito vs jenkins wasnt that bad either
hopefully adie cullen will make this one excellent darts day

Is Darren Webster real life here?

lol whitlock

Gilding always reminds me of...

lol

Webster is trending on Twatter, whatever that means

Evening session over before 10pm, beer vendors gotta be furious

More round 2 previews, others later but I have visitors just arrived while writing up Thornton:

Suljovic (8/15) vs M Webster (7/4) - this seems like a big overreaction to the first round where Mensur didn't look quite on it but still won 3-0. His doubling was still pretty good, the issue was the scoring - 21 tons to 7 140+'s isn't the best ratio, and as such Mensur remarkably only finished one leg in 15 darts or less (the decider in the final leg). Every other leg was won in 18 though, so Webster may be able to hold enough but will still need to put in something solid against the darts. Webster was 9/11 on the doubles which is remarkable, but if anything his scoring was worse - averaging 87 with only 5 140's or higher compared to 18 tons, although his darts needed in winning legs was a bit better than Mensur's - three 15's or better out of nine, although he chucked a seven visit leg in to clinch the match after Murnan missed darts for the set. Given Webster's form prior to this one I might just bet Suljovic on this, given he should play a lot better this time, but Webster's won their last six meetings, most recently in this year's UK Open when he won 9-5, so I'm going to pass and rue that when Suljovic averages 103 and wins 4-0

Thornton (6/4) vs Gurney (4/6) - Gurney averaged 96 despite not even hitting one dart in three at double in a 3-1 win over Wattimena, and didn't seem to be clicking in the power scoring as much as he can do. That's mostly because he seemed to take a bunch of legs off when he wasn't winning, as of the ten legs he won, six were in fifteen darts or less and the rest were 18's. Quite a lot of 134's, 125's etc in there as well which the stats will just score as flat tons. Thornton meanwhile was even worse on doubles, and that should easily have cost him at least one set but Lerchbacher couldn't take advantage. He did have as many 140's as 100's, but still only averaged 88 due to crap doubling and plenty of crap visits, and oddly had more fifteen dart kills than other kills - 5 out of 9 legs, although the other four only featured one 18, two 21's and a 27. Gurney will clean those up, and seems to be the better player. Think it's enough to play - 1u Gurney 4/6

I wish number of visits to finish was a more discussed stat than 3 dart average in coverage. It's tricky because you don't finish every leg obviously.

Chisnall (1/4) vs Dobey (18/5)

Chisnall scraped home against Rodriguez in a rematch from last year 3-2, a fair bit closer than I thought it would be, but an average of 98, nine maximums and a decent for Chizzy checkout rate is masking things I think - he blitzed the final set with two 11 darters and a 15, but of the other nine legs he won in the match, only three were in fifteen or less - one of which he was on a nine - he either wasn't scoring enough to get into checkout range, or he was and he was missing, and his average was inflated by Rodriguez hitting a lot of 15 darters himself. Dobey came through 3-1 against Pipe, checking out better than 50% but having a poor ton:140 ratio, and only averaging 90. I think this is a bit of a case of Dobey being inconsistent and letting Pipe in a few times - he had a 12, six 15's and four 18's in the legs he won, which is fairly solid, and it was brought down by not scoring heavily in a few legs which Pipe didn't kill off quickly enough - he only had one 15 dart leg in the entire match, Chizzy killing a few quicker will push Dobey's average up. Dobey's 2-1 this year against Chisnall, albeit all over short formats, the highlight being that European Tour last 16, and I think at that price it's worth a small punt - 0.25u Dobey 18/5

van Barneveld (1/4) vs Norris (37/10)

Barney looked real comfortable in beating Green 3-0, averaging just south of a ton, checking out better than one in two including three ton+ kills, and had more legs in 15 or less than 16 or more, which will be hard to beat, including two four visit kills. Norris had to come from behind against John Michael, losing the first two sets, but didn't need to do a massive amount to do so, as he had more legs finished in over 15 darts than 15 or less, both overall and after going two down. His scoring was OK but his doubling was weak, and he's going to need to be much improved against Barney in a seven set match. I think RvB advances, but he's even shorter odds here than he was against Green, and Norris is much better than Green and the longer match doesn't compensate enough to bet

Taylor (1/14) vs Painter (21/2)

LOL

van Gerwen (1/41) vs Reyes (20/1)

More LOL, if it was first to three I might have had a micro Reyes punt as he'd only need to break once and not hold that many legs, but it isn't

Huybrechts (4/11) vs Hopp (5/2)

Kim seemed pretty much on point against Wilson, after a scrappy opener he didn't need more than 15 darts to win any of the other legs he won, the second set he was waiting on 41 after 12 in the only leg he lost, he swept the third including a 12 in leg 2 and a 138 kill for the match - that's going to be really tough stuff for anyone to beat. Hopp beat van der Voort who was apparently injured again, coming from a set down where he needed seven visits in the only leg he won, to win the next three - set two was solid enough, set three he didn't need to do much at all but a 12 on throw to win it 3-1 is nice, but a break in 15, hold in 18 and a break in 18 in the last isn't really the sort of opportunity Huybrechts will allow him. They've not played this year but had three meetings last year - Kim put Hopp out of the UK Open 9-7, Hopp won a first rounder on the floor, and Kim whitewashed Hopp in Europe. Think this is easy enough for the Belgian but it's not quite laying enough odds for me to bet more than a small 1u Huybrechts 4/11

Wade (2/9) vs Beaton (4/1)

Wade never really needed to get out of second gear to beat Ronny Huybrechts 3-0, but he was killing well (over 50%), his average was solidly in the 90's and while he was able to, for example, break Huybrechts twice in the opening set in six visits, that was sandwiched by an 11 darter, the second set was 15-13-15 darts, and by that stage Ronny had lost confidence and couldn't take advantage of what was a scrappy final set. Beaton took out Petersen in a poor game - Petersen could have won any of the legs Beaton won just by throwing a 15 darter but couldn't, Beaton took the second set off, losing 3-0 despite Petersen winning only winning one leg in 18 darts, Petersen won the next leg in 18 darts, but then allowed Beaton to break back in the same number, and then hold in 15 twice which was always going to be enough, and Beaton closed it out with two more breaks of throw in six visits. Wade will not let Beaton get many chances to break without Beaton throwing at most 15 darts, so I can't see a path to victory over a race to four - 2u Wade 2/9

Klaasen (1/3) vs Dolan (3/1)

My god Klaasen was inconsistent. Finishing the first two legs in under 12 darts each, but then he needed a deciding leg to win the first set, got swept in the second including de Graaf breaking while hitting one big treble in his first 12 darts and eventually breaking in 21, then fired in another 12 to take a 2-0 lead in the third, got pegged back to 2-2, before missing d10 for a 140 and another 12 in the decider, cleaning up in 13, and taking out the rest in no more than 15 darts. Dolan averaged about the same against Kist, killing more than 1 in 2, sweeping the first but needing a break in 18 and 15 to do so, then was swept in the second, before winning 3-1, clocking up a good number of 15 dart legs - 6 of them along with three 18's or less. I think there's enough of a combination of Klaasen throwing unbeatable legs with Dolan not doing enough often enough in the bad Klaasen legs that Jelle advances more than the market suggests, so I'll stick on 2u Klaasen 1/3, Dolan has a decent record against Jelle on the floor but Klaasen's 2-0 in majors

Wright (1/9) vs J Lewis (7/1)

Dunno how this is the last second round game when they played on day 1 and day 2, but whatever, long break for both - Wright beat qualifier Jerry Hendriks 3-0, and looked great in doing so - 101 average despite the opponent not getting near 90, 45% kill rate, 15 140's, and seven of his nine legs won were in 15 or less, including a 12 in the last leg of the second set against the Hendriks throw, great timing. Lewis drew Mick McGowan and needed all five sets - 50/50 on doubles is great, but he barely scraped into the 90's at the same time. He didn't need a 15 darter in any leg to sweep the opener, broke in 15 in the first leg of the second but then let McGowan do the same twice and hold in 15 to level at 1-1, Lewis won the third 3-0 including another 18 dart break, McGowan leveled with three 15 dart holds, before Lewis claimed the last 3-1, all in 15 or less including one break. Wright is not going to let Lewis get anywhere near the chances he will need if he plays like that again - Lewis and McGowan both had six fifteen dart legs, the difference is that McGowan only won one more in 18 - Lewis won five more in 18 along with a 21. Wright doesn't let you have 18 darts very often and this seems extremely safe to put in accumulators

That's the one good thing with the new PDC scoring site - it actually gives a dart by dart breakdown so you can see these things. Obviously it's not perfect - if someone's not on a shot nobody in their right mind is going to, say, go for bull to end a 121, which'll add another visit, but it is so much more useful. While you're right in that you don't finish every leg, you can probably work something in terms of points left and see how often they ought to finish in the next three/six darts from where they are (decent sample sizes for finishing on various checkout numbers already exist)

lol suljovic

How is this 2-2