Chisnall (1/4) vs Dobey (18/5)
Chisnall scraped home against Rodriguez in a rematch from last year 3-2, a fair bit closer than I thought it would be, but an average of 98, nine maximums and a decent for Chizzy checkout rate is masking things I think - he blitzed the final set with two 11 darters and a 15, but of the other nine legs he won in the match, only three were in fifteen or less - one of which he was on a nine - he either wasn't scoring enough to get into checkout range, or he was and he was missing, and his average was inflated by Rodriguez hitting a lot of 15 darters himself. Dobey came through 3-1 against Pipe, checking out better than 50% but having a poor ton:140 ratio, and only averaging 90. I think this is a bit of a case of Dobey being inconsistent and letting Pipe in a few times - he had a 12, six 15's and four 18's in the legs he won, which is fairly solid, and it was brought down by not scoring heavily in a few legs which Pipe didn't kill off quickly enough - he only had one 15 dart leg in the entire match, Chizzy killing a few quicker will push Dobey's average up. Dobey's 2-1 this year against Chisnall, albeit all over short formats, the highlight being that European Tour last 16, and I think at that price it's worth a small punt - 0.25u Dobey 18/5
van Barneveld (1/4) vs Norris (37/10)
Barney looked real comfortable in beating Green 3-0, averaging just south of a ton, checking out better than one in two including three ton+ kills, and had more legs in 15 or less than 16 or more, which will be hard to beat, including two four visit kills. Norris had to come from behind against John Michael, losing the first two sets, but didn't need to do a massive amount to do so, as he had more legs finished in over 15 darts than 15 or less, both overall and after going two down. His scoring was OK but his doubling was weak, and he's going to need to be much improved against Barney in a seven set match. I think RvB advances, but he's even shorter odds here than he was against Green, and Norris is much better than Green and the longer match doesn't compensate enough to bet
Taylor (1/14) vs Painter (21/2)
LOL
van Gerwen (1/41) vs Reyes (20/1)
More LOL, if it was first to three I might have had a micro Reyes punt as he'd only need to break once and not hold that many legs, but it isn't
Huybrechts (4/11) vs Hopp (5/2)
Kim seemed pretty much on point against Wilson, after a scrappy opener he didn't need more than 15 darts to win any of the other legs he won, the second set he was waiting on 41 after 12 in the only leg he lost, he swept the third including a 12 in leg 2 and a 138 kill for the match - that's going to be really tough stuff for anyone to beat. Hopp beat van der Voort who was apparently injured again, coming from a set down where he needed seven visits in the only leg he won, to win the next three - set two was solid enough, set three he didn't need to do much at all but a 12 on throw to win it 3-1 is nice, but a break in 15, hold in 18 and a break in 18 in the last isn't really the sort of opportunity Huybrechts will allow him. They've not played this year but had three meetings last year - Kim put Hopp out of the UK Open 9-7, Hopp won a first rounder on the floor, and Kim whitewashed Hopp in Europe. Think this is easy enough for the Belgian but it's not quite laying enough odds for me to bet more than a small 1u Huybrechts 4/11
Wade (2/9) vs Beaton (4/1)
Wade never really needed to get out of second gear to beat Ronny Huybrechts 3-0, but he was killing well (over 50%), his average was solidly in the 90's and while he was able to, for example, break Huybrechts twice in the opening set in six visits, that was sandwiched by an 11 darter, the second set was 15-13-15 darts, and by that stage Ronny had lost confidence and couldn't take advantage of what was a scrappy final set. Beaton took out Petersen in a poor game - Petersen could have won any of the legs Beaton won just by throwing a 15 darter but couldn't, Beaton took the second set off, losing 3-0 despite Petersen winning only winning one leg in 18 darts, Petersen won the next leg in 18 darts, but then allowed Beaton to break back in the same number, and then hold in 15 twice which was always going to be enough, and Beaton closed it out with two more breaks of throw in six visits. Wade will not let Beaton get many chances to break without Beaton throwing at most 15 darts, so I can't see a path to victory over a race to four - 2u Wade 2/9
Klaasen (1/3) vs Dolan (3/1)
My god Klaasen was inconsistent. Finishing the first two legs in under 12 darts each, but then he needed a deciding leg to win the first set, got swept in the second including de Graaf breaking while hitting one big treble in his first 12 darts and eventually breaking in 21, then fired in another 12 to take a 2-0 lead in the third, got pegged back to 2-2, before missing d10 for a 140 and another 12 in the decider, cleaning up in 13, and taking out the rest in no more than 15 darts. Dolan averaged about the same against Kist, killing more than 1 in 2, sweeping the first but needing a break in 18 and 15 to do so, then was swept in the second, before winning 3-1, clocking up a good number of 15 dart legs - 6 of them along with three 18's or less. I think there's enough of a combination of Klaasen throwing unbeatable legs with Dolan not doing enough often enough in the bad Klaasen legs that Jelle advances more than the market suggests, so I'll stick on 2u Klaasen 1/3, Dolan has a decent record against Jelle on the floor but Klaasen's 2-0 in majors
Wright (1/9) vs J Lewis (7/1)
Dunno how this is the last second round game when they played on day 1 and day 2, but whatever, long break for both - Wright beat qualifier Jerry Hendriks 3-0, and looked great in doing so - 101 average despite the opponent not getting near 90, 45% kill rate, 15 140's, and seven of his nine legs won were in 15 or less, including a 12 in the last leg of the second set against the Hendriks throw, great timing. Lewis drew Mick McGowan and needed all five sets - 50/50 on doubles is great, but he barely scraped into the 90's at the same time. He didn't need a 15 darter in any leg to sweep the opener, broke in 15 in the first leg of the second but then let McGowan do the same twice and hold in 15 to level at 1-1, Lewis won the third 3-0 including another 18 dart break, McGowan leveled with three 15 dart holds, before Lewis claimed the last 3-1, all in 15 or less including one break. Wright is not going to let Lewis get anywhere near the chances he will need if he plays like that again - Lewis and McGowan both had six fifteen dart legs, the difference is that McGowan only won one more in 18 - Lewis won five more in 18 along with a 21. Wright doesn't let you have 18 darts very often and this seems extremely safe to put in accumulators