well there's a week to go, so let's at least do some bracketology. thinking scoring 1-2-3-5-8-13 for getting winners in each round. i'll do the scoring, if people want to side bet on it then do that amongst yourselves, just pm me 63 names in draw order (ignore the prelims imo, if you want to pick a prelim winner just list both names) - so something like

mvg
kellett
jenkins
pipe
chisnall
van de pas
gilding
mackenzie/gurney
wright
huybrechts
richardson
beaton
anderson
kist
newton
painter
taylor
meulenkamp
white
huybrechts
webster
winstanley
king
vvdv
wade
bunting
dolan
smith
lewis
part
barney
caven

mvg
jenkins
chisnall
gilding
wright
beaton
anderson
newton
taylor
huybrechts
winstanley
king
wade
dolan
lewis
caven

mvg
chisnall
wright
anderson
taylor
king
wade
lewis

mvg
anderson
king
lewis

anderson
lewis

anderson

that is my bracket btw, come at me

will start to get some analysis of the first round matches up over the weekend, meanwhile i'm going to look down oddschecker and see what i think of the outright prices:

taylor 2/1, mvg 11/4 - seems too short. there's too much parity in the game nowadays, even at the top level, particularly on taylor's side of the draw where he has wade/bunting/lewis/barney as potential semi final opponents, if he gets through a round 3 tie with huybrechts or white and a quarter with king/whitlock. mvg has anderson and then a big drop, although does play an in-form jenkins early, so if you're wanting one of the big two, i'd go mvg as i think his half is a lot easier

anderson 7/1 - while i think this is a good bet, you should have got on when he was twice the price last month

lewis 12/1 - this might be worth a punt. he's won twice, has a free run to the quarters other than a possible match vs barney round 3 where he should be a solid favourite, and i'd take him over wade or bunting in a long match. by that stage his odds will be a lot shorter, especially if taylor's dropped a bollock somewhere

wade 16/1, bunting 22/1 - will consider these two together. i'm avoiding both - not only do they play in round 2, but dolan or smith is quite a tough round 3, followed by lewis next round. if you have a strong feeling one way or the other, then bet them, but i don't think getting through the first major road block, namely each other, slashes their odds hugely given the runout they have

chisnall 40/1 - has a free run to the quarters (in theory, i thought he had a free win round 1 last year as well) then plays mvg. mvg's beaten him every time this year, including twice in the premier league and the matchplay. i don't fancy his chances and i don't think his odds shorten enough to be worth backing to lay at the QF stage

wright 50/1 - so he finals the worlds at 100/1 antepost, and is only half the price this time around. his run to the quarters is even easier than chisnall's, but then plays anderson. ando leads 13-10 all-time but that's misleading as 8 of those wins were from way back before wright got good, albeit six of those wright wins were from some pointless internet event which anderson probably didn't care about. ando won 6-5 in a tour final a couple of weeks ago and on the big stage they split the premier league scores. maybe worth a small dabble, i think he could drop a chunk by the quarter final stage

barney 50/1 - lol

huybrechts 66/1 - beating white isn't a gimmie and he'd then play taylor. the odds plummet if he wins that, but i don't think he does

whitlock 66/1 - i think he loses to darren webster quite frankly. if not, winstanley gives him a lot of trouble, and he should be a money dog to king. it only gets worse from there. avoid

smith 80/1 - dolan's beaten him frequently, then he runs into wade/bunting and it escalates from there. he can win in the future, the future's not this year

king 80/1 - this is what i'm liking. king's in great form, has a pretty easy first couple of rounds, then whitlock. i think he can hang with taylor as well. this is where i'm going for my long shot

thornton 100/1 - don't hate this price given his location in the draw, but he has the hardest possible first round match, then chizzy & mvg later. his form isn't as good as earlier in the year either

jenkins 125/1 - if you think he has a chance against mvg, then bet this. i do, so will go small

brown 150/1 - lol

200/1 bar those - don't see anyone else with legitimate equity. i'll have a micro bet on gilding at 500/1, highest ranked player from the pro tour that qualified, if he beats thornton he has an easier round 2, and would have equity vs chisnall imo

sixfour's bets:

1u adrian lewis, 12/1
0.5u peter wright, 50/1
0.5u mervyn king, 80/1
0.1u terry jenkins, 125/1
0.1u andrew gilding, 500/1

My bracket is in

Happy to do a $10 or $20 pool on pokerstars winner takes all for best bracket as per sixfours rules, but also happy to merely claim the pride title as most knowledgable darts fan on the forum.

I know for a fact I have at least three different first rounders to sixfour, since I have three Aussies in the second round as opposed to none

Mine is in as well, happy with $10 or $20 stars too.

Actually, I lie, I have four Aussies in the second round (Cmon Loz Ryder!!)

Ash is Scotland v Australia close to even in a last longer this year? Or is it completely in Scotlands favour with Anderson?

I would assume Anderson has way to much win it all equity to really make that a bet, plus expert 64 is very anti-Whitlock and Nicholson

If you want though, I will bet you Australia/NZ vs Scotland for most total match wins after the first three rounds. I win in the case of a draw, qualifying matches DO NOT count.

Australia/NZ has
Whitlock (7)
Nicholson (25)
Kyle Anderson
Ryder
Weber
Mark McGrath (in qualifying, would play Gary Anderson in first round proper, so highly unlikely to win a point for this bet)

Scotland has
Anderson (4)
Wright (5)
Thornton (9)
Henderson
Hogg

So if everyone busts first round except Anderson, who busts second round, you would win 1-0, and so on. I think its fair I get the draw since you have three seeds vs two, and it nullifies the fact that Anderson and others can only at most contribute 3 wins to the team total.

I assume we don't need sweats for the Quarters and onwards

Happy to do it for US$20, as well as $20 for my bracket vs yours (with others joining bracketology if they want)

Sounds good. $20 Scots v AU/NZ and $20 bracket

Booked.

If anyone else wants to join the bracket pool, Im happy to play all in winner take all for the bracket bets.

DAY ONE MATCHES

	John Part	Keegan Brown
Qualified by	#31 in world rank (30 seed)	#10 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	37	52
Odds	15-8	1-2
Last Year	Last 32, 0-4 v Newton	Debut
Majors	Last 96 UK Open	Last 96 UK Open
Euro Tour	2 x QF, 1 x last 32	1 x last 48
Pro Tour	6 x last 32, 7 x last 64	1 x RU, 3 x last 16, 4 x last 32, 5 x last 64

First of a couple of real interesting games. We've got former champion and seasoned veteran John Part, against young sensation Keegan Brown, and Party's nearly a 2-1 dog. I don't think that's quite right.

Firstly, it's a short format and it's set play. Part's still good enough to turn it on when he wants to, and when he needs to - when tumbling down the rankings a couple of years ago, he binked a Euro tour event for 20 large that kept him in the top 32. He needs to do something here as well, although he's only defending 10k.

Secondly, is Brown really any good? His run at the Grand Slam was nice, but beating Barney isn't a big deal nowadays, and he allowed Chisnall to come back next round when close to the finish line (and made me some money in the process, thanks). He's here basically on the results of one tournament, where he was playing nicely, but got a favourable run of players - the best player he beat was Wright 6-5, and the next best was Jamie Caven. The World Youth isn't that indicative either - sure Michael Smith has gone on, but search parties are out for Arron Monk and James Hubbard.

Finally, it's his debut here, he's off some hype, and is coming in as a favourite. That's a lot of pressure for a young kid, and Part's the last person you want to play in this sort of situation. Betting Part seems obvious.

1u Part 15/8

	Jelle Klaasen	Christian Kist
Qualified by	#30 in world rankings (29 seed)	#4 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	28	41
Odds	Evs	Evs
Last Year	Last 64, 1-3 vs Caven	Debut (last 32 of BDO, 1-3 vs Wilson)
Majors	QF Euro, last 16 Players, last 64 UK Open	Last 16 UK Open, last 32 Euro, Players
Euro Tour	1 x SF, 1 x last 16, 4 x last 48	1 x last 32, 3 x last 48
Pro Tour	1 x QF, 4 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 5 x last 64	1 x SF, 3 x QF, 3 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 8 x last 64

Ah, a Dutch v Dutch and Lakeside winner v Lakeside winner faceoff, and the bookies have it even.

Klaasen has done well to make it back into the top 32 after off the board issues, although hasn't pushed on as much as I'd have thought when I backed him at 175's for last year's worlds. Kist's in his first season and has already made a great impression, making the Players Championship's indicative of his quality as a top 32 player, once he gets a full 2 years of results (particularly the harder to qualify for majors like the Matchplay), his actual ranking should reflect that as well.

Kist's got plenty of TV experience, and that it's his debut on this stage shouldn't affect him.

As far as form goes, Klaasen's done slightly better in the majors, but Kist's been doing more week in week out. I'd expect this to be a close one, but I think Kist has the edge

1u Kist evs

	Michael van Gerwen	Joe Cullen
Qualified by	#1 in world rank	#12 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	1	44
Odds	1-16	14-1
Last Year	Won, 7-4 v Wright	Last 64, 0-3 v Wright
Majors	Won Grand Prix, Euro, RU Matchplay, SF UK Open, last 16 Players	None
Euro Tour	1 x win, 2 x RU, 1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 1 x last 32	1 x last 16, 1 x last 32
Pro Tour	4 x win, 1 x RU, 3 x SF, 7 x last 16, 6 x last 32	2 x SF, 3 x last 32, 6 x last 64

Yeah, let's not say too much about this one, I'm surprised Cullen's even qualified for this, but he made a couple of semi finals beating a few good names on the way (including MVG fwiw), and qualified for a couple of euro tour events so fair play for that, but van Gerwen will just be too strong. It's too short to bet, got to be like 1% weird injury equity, 1% Cullen god mode equity and 1% choke equity, stick it on an acca if you like

	Wes Newton	Christian Perez/Cristo Reyes
Qualified by	#13 in world rank	South Asian/Iberian qualifiers
64 ranking	15	133
Odds	1-8	5-1
Last Year	QF, 4-5 v Wright	Perez DNQ, Reyes debut
Majors	SF Players, QF Matchplay, last 32 Euro, Grand Prix	None
Euro Tour	2 x QF, 4 x last 16, 1 x last 32	None
Pro Tour	1 x SF, 1 x QF, 3 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 4 x last 64	None

Newton's turned around a mediocre season, his two good Pro Tour events were UK Open qualifiers where he needed to withdraw, and beating Baxter/Nicholson in the Matchplay isn't impressive, but he's getting where he needs to be with a good run over Pipe/Dolan/Jenkins in the Players Champs before coming undone to Adie in the semi. Good scalps and tricky players to beat.

Perez has been here a couple of times before, in 2012 where he won his prelim and took a set off Alan Tabern, and in 2010 where he edged out Per Laursen in a prelim then took a set off Thornton. That experience should come in nicely.

Reyes is somewhat unknown, having made it through the Spanish qualifier, beating Julio Barbero (qualified last year), Antonio Jimenez (unknown, think he plays soft tip more) and whitewashing Jose Rodriguez (who put out Alcinas). He's probably competent but this'll be a huger stage than he's played on before.

I don't think either can get close to Newton, and Newton's too short to bet. Another one to stick in an acca and be done with it, while it's not ridiculous to suggest that one of the qualifiers could nick a set, I think Newton having some more confidence now (and vastly more experience) would allow him to pull through if they did hold out on their throw or similar.

Let me know if this is tl:dr. I'm not even bothering to look at the prelims, they're race to 4 coinflips where winning the bull will probably be enough to take it

Not tl dr keep it coming

This!

Love you reading your views

Enjoy the write ups, though if you ever get to tired or bored of previewing games, at leaat post up yiur sixfour rankings in full again.

http://pastebin.com/2RP6vRG8

this takes into account money already banked in the worlds. going to start on day 2 now, would have waited until tomorrow but my local being a #bunchoftwats for the second night running altered my plans

This is the only real darts comp i watch.

+3 on the writeups. Not TLDR, and definitely informative. Will be up for some low stakes Gamboools on it.

I'll join for some $20 bracket gamble.

DAY TWO MATCHES

	Andy Hamilton	Dave Richardson
Qualified by	#12 in world rankings	North American qualifier
64 ranking	18	82
Odds	1-4	4-1
Last Year	Last 32, 1-4 vs Burnett	Debut
Majors	Last 16 Matchplay, last 32 Euro, Grand Prix, UK Open, Players	None
Euro Tour	1 x SF, 1 x QF, 5 x last 32	None
Pro Tour	1 x win, 1 x SF, 1 x QF, 2 x last 16, 5 x last 32, 5 x last 64	None

Andy's in poor form. Very poor form. His win and the semi final appearance on the tour were in UK Open qualifiers right at the start of the year (in fact, the win was the very first floor event this season), and he's crashed out of every major at the first hurdle barring the Matchplay, and even he should beat Wayne Jones, and the UK Open, where he beat Klaasen in a decider before running into MvG and that's all she wrote

Dave Richardson got here by winning the North American qualifier, beating young prospect Shaun Narain in the final and former World Cup player Kenny MacNeil (he who beat Phil Taylor, remember). This was in set play, first to 3, and he dropped 1 set in the last two rounds. I'd like to think he can play regardless - Narain beat John Part 3-0 in the quarters to confirm he's no mug.

I have basically zero confidence in Hamilton, but not wanting to go full YOLO on someone I haven't seen actually play, I'll reserve things to a smaller bet.

0.5u Richardson 4/1

	Peter Wright	Gerwyn Price
Qualified by	#5 in world rankings	#8 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	5	51
Odds	1-4	4-1
Last Year	Runner up, 4-7 vs van Gerwen	Debut
Majors	QF Euros, last 16 Grand Prix, Players, last 32 Matchplay, UK Open	None
Euro Tour	1 x win, 1 x SF, 1 x QF, 5 x last 32	1 x QF, 1 x last 32
Pro Tour	1 x win, 1 x RU, 3 x SF, 2 x QF, 2 x last 16, 6 x last 32, 3 x last 64	1 x SF, 1 x QF, 2 x last 16, 10 x last 64

Peter Wright would have made me a rich man last year after having got on him at 100's in the summer, only for me to **** up laying him off and ending up with just a small profit. To say he came from nowhere would be inaccurate, people in the know always knew what he could do, and to say he's just a one trick hair gimmick pony would be disrespectful. He's a quality darts player, and while he's not done as much as his ranking would suggest, he's not had any huge failures (his first round Matchplay elimination was to Bunting, which is excusable) and has picked up a win on the European Tour as well as plenty of deep runs.

Gerwyn Price has literally come from nowhere - prior to him winning a tour card last January, dartsdatabase has no record of him whatsoever. Wikipedia indicates he used to play rugby and played superleague darts - as he's Welsh I'll assume that's true and go from there.

He made the UK Open but didn't cash, which isn't hard, but shortly afterwards found his feet with a first real run in a Pro Tour event, beating Lerchbacher, Nicholson and Evans before falling to MvG in the last 16. He qualified for a couple of European Tour events, notably making the quarters in one, which helped a huge amount for him to make it here, beating Roith, Beaton and van der Voort before falling to Andy Hamilton, and sealed his place with his best performance so far last month, making the semis in a floor event, taking the scalps of Gary Anderson (6-2), Colin Lloyd, Terry Jenkins and Ross Smith before losing to eventual winner Ian White.

Price can play, and if he pulled off a result, I wouldn't be shocked, but he doesn't do it enough for me to have a small punt on him, meanwhile Wright's a crowd favourite, clearly loves the venue and is a class better. Just enjoy, maybe dabble on a 3-1 sets win or something

	Phil Taylor	Jyhan Artut
Qualified by	#2 in world rankings	#14 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	2	45
Odds	1-25	14-1
Last Year	Last 32, 3-4 vs M Smith	DNQ
Majors	Won Matchplay, QF Grand Prix, Players, last 16 Euro, last 64 UK Open	last 32 Euro
Euro Tour	1 x win, 1 x QF, 1 x last 32	3 x last 32, 2 x last 48
Pro Tour	1 x win, 1 x RU, 2 x SF, 1 x last 16, 1 x last 64	1 x SF, 9 x last 64

Artut has my eternal love for crushing a clearly damaged goods Wayne Mardle in straight sets in 2010 and making me a packet. But can he beat Phil?

No. He's qualified through the Pro Tour rather than through the European events, which is a positive, although he's mostly just been one win and done, barring one huge run in October where he took out nobodies until the last 16 before beating Beaton and White.

Taylor's as beatable as ever. Just not by Jyhan. Even if he got into a position where I think he'd have a chance, e.g. Phil giving him the darts and him holding the first set, I think he'd choke. This is the same Jyhan Artut that lost to Andree Welge in the semi of a German qualifier a few years back where someone randomly offered 100k to the winner.

	Stuart Kellett	Kim Viljanen/Sascha Stein
Qualified by	#33 in world rankings (#32 seed)	Scandinavian/German qualifiers
64 ranking	38	133
Odds	1-3	5-2
Last Year	Last 64, 0-3 vs Nicholson	DNQ
Majors	Last 64 UK Open	None
Euro Tour	1 x last 16, 1 x last 32	None
Pro Tour	1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 9 x last 64	None

Let's discuss the qualifiers first. Stein came through the German qualifier, having failed in a group stage last year, by beating Andree Welge and then losing to Max Hopp, but as Hopp had made it through the Euro Tour rankings, he made it anyway. Viljanen qualified as a result of ending up third in the Scandinavian Tour rankings - Haavisto qualified by right, and Komula would have also made it but due to some dubious suspension, Viljanen ends up here instead.

Kellett managed to be seeded only as a result of Burnett's withdrawal from the event, and will end up playing van Gerwen in the second round if he wins, so he can effectively treat this as a final. The former World Master never did much in the BDO outside of that, losing 4-1 to Jan Dekker in his only Lakeside appearance in the last 16 (as the #2 seed), and has made the last two PDC Worlds, losing in the first round on both occasions, not liking the conditions to the extent that he kept his darts in a fridge on his debut, switching between sets. He's yet to win a set at the Ally Pally.

His form this year is non-existent, his only major appearance was a one and done in the UK Open, losing easily to Terry Jenkins, and since a quarter final floor run in June beating Kim Huybrechts along the way, he's not even won 2 grand.

Skybet offers 5/2 on the qualifier. I think this is worth it, they are both likely to be solid, consistent players coming from areas with a reputable darts scene, and will have a prelim to allow the winner to get the hang of things, despite them both being debutants. Kellett's got a lot to prove and I don't think he'll do it, or rather, I don't think he'll do it enough to make betting against him a bad idea

0.5u Viljanen/Stein 5/2

Loving the analysis, might actually bet purely on 64s advice merely out of sweating the games.

Sounds good.

Sixfour, are you happy to score the brackets? If not I am happy to do it.

Either way, send your completed bracket in the same format as sixfours earlier on the page to him, and if he doesnt want to score the brackets, send it to me instead. My bracket is already in place, and I will reveal mine once all the nominations are in.

I am happy to not bother with escrowing with forum regs, but if a relative newbie wants in, I think them escrowing with either me or kingweed would be best.

$20 BRACKET COMPETITION (winner take all)
ashley12
kingweed
yippee-ki-yay

Yeah, I'm good to score them

how are viewing figures for the world champs? Maybe it's my sheltered family life speaking but I can't imagine that in boxing week, where people usually go meet up, they get together to watch darts on TV. Or is gate revenue more important?

depends on the match. for last year's final there was over 600k - only slightly more than you had there on scheißdsf. for taylor/mvg it was twice that, and the first barney/taylor final also broke a million. bear in mind this is on pay TV where they don't get a million for the premier league unless it's united or plop on.

as for the 2nd/3rd round matches between christmas and new year, it's obv not as high, but there'll still be a fair few viewers

DAY THREE AFTERNOON MATCHES

	Andy Smith	Ronny Huybrechts
Qualified by	#29 in world rankings (#28 seed)	#6 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	27	34
Odds	Evs	Evs
Last Year	Last 32, 3-4 vs Wade	Last 64, 1-3 vs K Huybrechts
Majors	Last 16 Players, last 32 Grand Prix, Matchplay, last 64 UK Open	Last 16 Euro, last 32 UK Open
Euro Tour	1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 1 x last 48	2 x last 32, 3 x last 48
Pro Tour	1 x QF, 2 x last 16, 9 x last 32, 6 x last 64	1 x SF, 2 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 10 x last 64

The Pieman's had a fairly unspectacular year, as he always does. Only progress at any point was a surprising win over Michael Smith at the Players Championship, otherwise he went out at the first time of asking to Anderson and Wade twice. Still, he's doing enough on the floor to get there and maintain a spot low down in the top 32, notably beating Anderson and Baxter in Austria for his biggest non-guaranteed payday of the season.

Ronny's had a fairly quiet year, making most of the Euro Tour events but not doing much, and getting a bit of a run in the UK Open, beating Whitlock before losing to Lewis, and taking out Wade in the Euro championship. A good run in Coventry in June on the floor cemented his place here, beating Winstanley, van Gerwen, Kyle Anderson and Jamie Caven to reach the semi final.

This should be quite tight, I think Smith's more consistent, but on a TV stage that means consistently losing. Ronny can take what's quite a nice draw and hopefully push on into the top 32, he's got a better case for being there than a few shortly ahead of him.

1u Huybrechts evs

	Justin Pipe	Laurence Ryder
Qualified by	#17 in world rankings	#1 in AGP rankings
64 ranking	14	82
Odds	1-7	13-2
Last Year	Last 32, 1-4 vs Petersen	Debut
Majors	Last 32 Players, Euro, Grand Prix, Matchplay, last 64 UK Open	None
Euro Tour	1 x RU, 1 x QF, 2 x last 16, 3 x last 32	None
Pro Tour	1 x win, 1 x RU, 2 x SF, 4 x QF, 6 x last 16, 6 x last 32, 1 x last 64	None

Pipe's had a disastrous year on stage, losing at the first opportunity in every single event. On the floor he's been his usual consistent self, coming 10th in the UK Open qualifying list with a run of quarter final+ finishes, which was off the back of a final on the Euro tour in Germany, losing a deciding leg to Gary Anderson. He also picked up a tour win in Ireland a couple of months back, running over Artut, Part, Birch, Johnson, Winstanley, Lewis and van Gerwen in the final.

Pipe's quality as a darts player is overshadowed by constant remarks over his speed of play (see also Dolan, Brendan - they didn't complain when Priestley was slower, oddly enough), and should come through in a comfortable victory. Ryder's here straight into round 1 by coming top of the Australian Grand Prix rankings, ahead of previous WC contender Shane Tichowitsch and Oceanic Master John Weber, who we'll see later. He can't be that bad, but in previous exhibition tournaments this season, he lost 6-2 to Barney and 6-0 to Wright, so I don't think he can come close to Pipe, unless Pipe has a real off day. That's enough of a possibility that I'm not getting on at what's quite a short price.

	Robert Thornton	Andrew Gilding
Qualified by	#9 in world rankings	#1 in Pro Tour
64 ranking	11	32
Odds	4-11	5-2
Last Year	Last 16, 1-4 vs Newton	Debut
Majors	Last 16 Players, Euro, Grand Prix, last 32 Matchplay, UK Open	Last 16 Grand Prix, last 32 Players, Matchplay, UK Open
Euro Tour	1 x QF, 3 x last 16, 2 x last 32	1 x last 16, 3 x last 32
Pro Tour	3 x win, 2 x RU, 1 x QF, 7 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 1 x last 64	2 x RU, 2 x QF, 4 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 3 x last 64

Now for a real interesting one. Who I'm picking should be obvious given my outright tips, but Gilding's very much in the ultra-speculative park.

Thornton's had a great season on the floor, winning three events in Wigan in succession in the early stages of the season, but hasn't done enough in the majors compared to what you'd expect from a Premier League player. He's only lost closely each time, to Jenkins, Caven, Wade, Nicholson and Suljovic, but you'd expect him to convert more often.

Gilding's finishing up his third season in the PDC after moving with little BDO form, and needed to reclaim a tour card last January, after a couple of deep tour event runs came too late. He did so at the first time of asking and hasn't looked back since - he made the final of a UK Open qualifier (the one Bunting won, but he beat Taylor in the semi), then after a last 32 run there (I say run, he got a free win over Newton then lost to Painter easily) made another final, losing 6-5 to Anderson after taking out Wade, Caven and Michael Smith amongst others. This gave him enough to qualify for the Matchplay with a few grand to spare, then beat Darren Webster in the Grand Prix to get his first real major win.

Thornton is a better player, but Gilding is pretty much a no-nonsense, get down and score, consistent player - who won't be intimidated by the opponent, crowd or occasion. I think 5/2 is a very good price and a solid value bet, over what's a short format that'll require Thornton to break early. If not, I think the pressure will affect Thornton more - this is a good chance to make it to the business stages and he'll know it

1u Gilding 5/2

	Ronnie Baxter	Scott MacKenzie/Daryl Gurney
Qualified by	#24 in world rankings	PDPA qualifier runner up/Tom Kirby Memorial winner
64 ranking	26	100/53
Odds	8-13	11-8
Last Year	Last 64, 0-3 vs Evans	DNQ/DNQ
Majors	Last 32 Players, Grand Prix, Matchplay, last 64 UK Open	Gurney: Last 32 Grand Prix, last 96 UK Open. Mackenzie: None
Euro Tour	1 x SF, 1 x last 16, 1 x last 32, 2 x last 48	Gurney: 1 x last 32. Mackenzie: None
Pro Tour	5 x QF, 4 x last 16, 7 x last 32, 4 x last 64	Gurney: 1 x QF, 1 x last 16, 3 x last 32, 10 x last 64. Mackenzie: 3 x last 32, 4 x last 64

A lot of what I said about Andy Smith earlier can be repeated about Ronnie Baxter - except Baxter's somewhat better, and has higher upside - his best run this season saw him beat Caven, King and Barney in Germany, and he's made 5 quarter finals, and you're going to have to take out a similar level of player most of the time. Smith can't do that in a row like Baxter can.

In the majors he's been a disappointment, first round losses to Lewis, Taylor and Bunting are to be expected though, but he could have taken out Newton on home soil in Blackpool, but lost in extra time - do that then beat Nicholson and I'd feel more confident about his chances.

Gurney and Mackenzie have both been here before. Gurney qualified through winning the Tom Kirby Memorial, one of the biggest domestic Irish titles, as he did two years ago where he knocked out Andy Smith. He has a tour card but hasn't made great progress, but has done enough to make the Grand Prix through the Irish qualifier spots. Unfortunately he has to play in the UK qualifying section for the European events, which are somewhat tougher than the rest of the world, so hasn't done much there, but did make a quarter final to qualify for the UK Open (the same one mentioned above where Bunting won, he lost to Gilding after edging out van Gerwen in the last 16).

MacKenzie got to the final of the PDPA qualifier, beating a variety of "was good, now not so much" (Bates, Dudbridge), "not bad players but you've never heard of them" (Colin Fowler, Nick Fulwell) and "young players to watch for" (Payne, Griffiths). So no gimmies. He's previously appeared here twice, once taking a set off Wayne Jones when Jones wasn't crap, and losing to Artut in a preliminary - both times having won the China qualifier. Like many from that area, he also plays some soft tip, with a bit of success.

I'd fancy Gurney to take the qualifier, but think either have a shot at Baxter. He's experienced and a crowd favourite, but is also very much not the player he used to be - even looking back 5 years where he was a quarter finalist, if not to his BDO heyday. Going to be a touch cautious, as I'd much rather have Gurney playing him, but this is probably the best chance for one of the qualifiers to make progress.

0.5u MacKenzie/Gurney 11/8

sixfour, love your writeups. are you keeping track of your darts betting results and if yes do you mind sharing it with us?

i haven't been, i just throw up things i think are good bets. it's something i'm going to try to do this season more accurately

I know a lot of people in NZ that get right into it in this week. Admittedly it is on in the morning (Evening session starts 8am) so it's pretty sweet to roll out of bed and fire up the coffee, bacon and beers while everyone is in summer holiday mode.