What if the Colts lose the SB. is the bet a push or what.

And i dont think they are any Favs in the Afc yet.

i win, they just have to make the superbowl, not win it.

And if anyone doesn't think they are favs in the afc, I will let you pick any other team and I obv get the Colts on who goes farther in the playoffs (reg season record will be used as tiebreaker if they both go out in the same round).

I have two bets with bobbo.

lakers under 64.5 200 to win 100
spurs +3.72 over jazz 50 to win 50.

Anyone want a last longer with the Angels vs. any other team? Tiebreak is who goes longest in the series they lose in. Or final season BCS ranking I'll take USC at -110 vs. any team. Provided this is before kickoff tomorrow just let me know who you want to escrow with. Not looking for too much action maybe 100 or less?

this is a better bet than the one with assani

Reading the thread where Epip and Assani hashed that out was like a lesson in hustling. The bet started from Epip saying "Colts are favorites(plurality)" and somehow Assani got him to bet on "Colts are favorites(majority)".

bet is void since we couldnt find an escrow in time

eh maybe I got hustled in the fact that I could have gotten better odds, but the bet I took is def +EV. If the Colts don't suffer multiple key major injuries (unless it's manning), they are way +EV once the playoffs roll around.

I have 1k with Bobbo on the Pacers final standing in the East. I have over 8.5, he has the under. In other words, he wins if they make the playoffs.

I like your side of the bet, but I think it'll be closer than most expect. I mean, I wouldn't jump at the over if the line were 9.5.

I have other bets, didn't know this thread existed. The major one to write down is an avatar bet for several months with "Victor" upon whether or not LBJ resigns with the Cavs.

Wow you are dense. I don't know when you made the bet. I'll assume preseason but frankly the numbers wouldn't change dramatically after week 1 for you to be anywhere close to +EV. A no-juice vegas line for the Colts to win the AFC pre-season was about 14%. So for your bet:

You win $1k ~ 14%
You push ~ x%
You lose $1k ~ y%

Notice that x+y = 86% and y must be less than 14% for you to be +EV. This would mean that the Colts' season would have to exactly result in them reaching and losing in the AFC championship game 72% of the time for you to be at a break-even point.

If you think for some reason the 14% figure is way off, please provide your own reasonable estimate. You'll find that once it gets high enough for this bet to be +EV you would be way better off either betting a future straight up or simply betting them in every regular season game.

Same. I'd still bet at 9.0 but I don't think I would at 9.5. It's pretty close either way.

lol first off vegas lines are not accurate odds, they are based on what the public will think, not what the actual odds are.

And those odds were made during the preseason where i'd never have made the bet since the Pats were the clear favorite. Once Brady went down, and Merriman was out for the year, the Colts became the clear favorites in a drastically weaker AFC and that's when I took the bet because even though they were banged up none of their injuries were serious and would last past say week 8.

If I had to estimate percentages based on when I took the bet (end of week 1) i'd say

Colts had a 40 percent chance of getting to the SuperBowl

Colts had a 30 percent chance of getting to the AFC Champ game

Colts had a 30 percent chance of not getting to the AFC Champ game

And if the Colts lose I'd probably be happy since I hate them more than any team in pro sports anyway including the Yankees.

Your argument about how odds are set is way off. Where they expect to get action may influence the line a little, but sportsbooks will not set wildly inaccurate NFL future lines based on "what the public will think" as you suggest. And if anything, my guess is this is an instance where the odds may actually be shaded in the opposite direction of what you think based on public influence since the books know there are lots of donks out there that use the "Brady out = Colts are near locks for AFC" logic as shown above.

The numbers you have suggested are LOL-worthy. I mean, really bad.

When did getting to the SuperBowl 40 percent of the time = near lock?

Poor use of hyperbole by me I guess. Regardless, 70% to get to AFC championship and 40% to win AFC are still way too high.

EPiPen11,

1. After week 1 you estimated that if we simulated the rest of the NFL season from that point on 1 million times, that ~300,000 of them would feature the Colts EXACTLY reaching the AFC Championship game and losing in it? Your push frequency is a total joke.

2. You "LOL" at Vegas lines. Using your own numbers the bet you made as an ROI of 10%. You could have bet the Colts at better than +300 to win the AFC after week 1. If the Colts achieve this feat 40% of the time as you estimate this bet would have an ROI of 60%. 60% vs 10%. I'm rather surprised that you cannot just admit that you got completely suckered in this bet. I guess that's what keeps the industry spinning.

EPiPen and I have 3 bets for $1000 each:

1. Colts win SB, he wins. Colts reach AFC title game, push. Otherwise I win.

2. He has Colts, I have Buffalo to go further in playoffs

3. He has Colts, I have Ravens to go further in playoffs



PokerFink and I have one $1000 bet: He has Philly, I have WAshington to have a better record in the regular season with standard NFL tiebreakers.

I also have the $500 bet with Xorbie that Clark has regarding Min/GS

LOL..guess I should've read the thread first before posting those as they were already posted. Also love the fact that so many people laughed at my side of the Skins/Eagles bet. Why exactly is Philly always so overrated here and Washington so underrated? The Skins were the ones who made the playoffs last year and their team is only better this year.

I have a bet for one trillion dollars that Assani won't learn to multi-quote before the end of the NFL season.

A good idea might be to keep lists of:

1. People who have lost bets without escrow and paid in a timely fashion

2. People who have not paid lost bets

3. People who have held escrow and gotten it to the winner in a timely fashion

sick