Quote:
Originally Posted by Parlay Slow
Wow you are dense. I don't know when you made the bet. I'll assume preseason but frankly the numbers wouldn't change dramatically after week 1 for you to be anywhere close to +EV. A no-juice vegas line for the Colts to win the AFC pre-season was about 14%. So for your bet:
You win $1k ~ 14%
You push ~ x%
You lose $1k ~ y%
Notice that x+y = 86% and y must be less than 14% for you to be +EV. This would mean that the Colts' season would have to exactly result in them reaching and losing in the AFC championship game 72% of the time for you to be at a break-even point.
If you think for some reason the 14% figure is way off, please provide your own reasonable estimate. You'll find that once it gets high enough for this bet to be +EV you would be way better off either betting a future straight up or simply betting them in every regular season game.
lol first off vegas lines are not accurate odds, they are based on what the public will think, not what the actual odds are.
And those odds were made during the preseason where i'd never have made the bet since the Pats were the clear favorite. Once Brady went down, and Merriman was out for the year, the Colts became the clear favorites in a drastically weaker AFC and that's when I took the bet because even though they were banged up none of their injuries were serious and would last past say week 8.
If I had to estimate percentages based on when I took the bet (end of week 1) i'd say
Colts had a 40 percent chance of getting to the SuperBowl
Colts had a 30 percent chance of getting to the AFC Champ game
Colts had a 30 percent chance of not getting to the AFC Champ game
And if the Colts lose I'd probably be happy since I hate them more than any team in pro sports anyway including the Yankees.