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07-29-2017 , 06:35 AM

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

so i was thinking of having a prop bet with a couple friends, was just curious what anyone thought would be a good number to lay for me to go from 2k to 20k over the course of a nfl/college football season. Playoffs and bowl games to be included. Historically i am a 57%ish winner. Thanks for the insight.

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07-29-2017 , 01:04 PM

manbearpuig

banned

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 920

If you are a 57%ish winner then just bet 2k a game the whole season. Why bother with any props?

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07-29-2017 , 01:35 PM

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

"I have the ability to make unlimited money but am concerned about my odds here"

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07-29-2017 , 04:19 PM

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

And what happens if week 1 is in that 43%? Doesn't seem like a great idea to me.

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07-29-2017 , 04:24 PM

Palo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 10,563

If you can pick at 57% why would you select a 43% outcome?

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07-29-2017 , 04:31 PM

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,914

lol 57% right

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07-29-2017 , 04:36 PM

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

I don't really give a **** if you guys believe me or not, it was a simple question, apparently you guys lack reading comprehension.

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07-29-2017 , 04:37 PM

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

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07-29-2017 , 06:45 PM

manbearpuig

banned

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 920

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arnett23

I don't really give a **** if you guys believe me or not, it was a simple question, apparently you guys lack reading comprehension.

Wasn't being insulting. If you can pick football at 57% why would you even think about any props? Bet football all year and print money!

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07-29-2017 , 07:33 PM

#10

Perhaps Shimmy

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,577

You arnett very smart

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07-29-2017 , 07:55 PM

#11

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

I do bet football, and I do make a lot of money. Although I've been thinking of starting a service and this would be a way of paid advertising if it doesn't happen, and if it does happen would just be that much better. I would be booking the action and I know how much of my bankroll I'm willing to risk for it.

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07-29-2017 , 11:05 PM

#12

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Sounds like a nice plan to me

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07-29-2017 , 11:44 PM

#13

insanity31

inanity

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 51,867

If you are a top ~10 sports bettor in the world, I'd just focus on that. Seems kinda scummy to take your friends' money on top of that

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07-29-2017 , 11:55 PM

#14

KrazyKris

GOAT PEEHS Drehpehs

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 14,268

57%? Wow, that's great! Smooth Jimmy Apollo is only right 52% of the time.

So you've got him beat!

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07-30-2017 , 12:34 AM

#15

txdome

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 18,226

Bro, take your friend in as an investor and ride your wave as one of the greats together.

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07-30-2017 , 12:43 AM

#16

SublettingProblems

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 189

Even though the chiding is well-deserved, it's possible he's like 57-43 over the past 20 years or something and is just super selective. Which is the only explanation for an actual 57% winner not understanding how ridiculous the question is.

Last edited by SublettingProblems; 07-30-2017 at 12:53 AM. Reason: or he's betting -140 moneylines

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07-30-2017 , 01:45 AM

#17

King~of~Diamonds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8,989

Is there a website where I can give you my money for your football picks?

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07-30-2017 , 01:54 AM

#18

Chips Ahoy

help me help you

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 28,869

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

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07-30-2017 , 05:50 AM

#19

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

I really don't understand all the hate. Whether I'm a 57% winner or a 37% winner does it really matter? You guys obviously think I am talking out of my ass. So if i gave you -2000 for me to turn $2k into $20k over the course of 1 football season would you take it? The way you guys are attacking me or trying to make me look stupid, I would assume you would think it is almost impossible for that to happen. I just want someone that isn't an ******* to give me an honest answer. I would also like to know when it became taboo for poker players to indulge in crazy prop bets. So you guys obviously think I am lying, give me an actual number and call it a day please.

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07-30-2017 , 10:13 AM

#20

SteveSax

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 18,575

People are just trying to get your week 1 picks for free. This site used to show respect for the greats.

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07-30-2017 , 10:18 AM

#21

lenC

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,101

Nonzero chance this is RSig being bored and trying to pull off a greearesque bait.

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07-30-2017 , 10:37 AM

#22

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,300

Quote:

Originally Posted by lenC

Nonzero chance this is RSig being bored and trying to pull off a greearesque bait.

2003 reg is quite the long game for that

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07-30-2017 , 10:41 AM

#23

grando1.0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 17,111

I give it around 57% chance

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07-30-2017 , 05:10 PM

#24

Arnett23

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 117

Thanks for reaffirming the reason why I don't bother with 2+2.

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07-30-2017 , 05:25 PM

#25

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,247

You don't mean that.

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