but then....maybe not. This guy thinks the race might be all over in the first week. Seems punchy - perhaps stage 1 but really stage 4 and then the tt on day 7 are the only real week 1 opportunities

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/the...-flying-start/


(sorry for spamming, but I'm excited for the race)

Longtime casual tdf watcher here. Today’s stage was really fun to watch what with that dsm kid being a hero for the retiring french guy and all. I guess the heat meant a lot of cruising in survival mode—only saw the last hour though, maybe Pog tried to bury Jonas early?

Betting odds question:

Overall:
Remco +1800 Rodriguez +3300 (yesterday +2000, +5000)

Young Rider:
Remco +250 Rodriguez +125

Assuming this isn’t a glaring mistake on a sport popular in europe, is it logical that Remco is higher variance, or do you think the books are protecting themselves against offering high odds on an unknown? I thought young rider was just Overall for 26 and under, so correct me if I’m wrong.

FWIW, it's under 26 before the end of the year. That's why Pog isn't eligible anymore even though he doesn't turn 26 until September.

I'd think those odds point to a significant chance that Remco isn't going to finish the race unless he's in a position to win overall?

Ah, ok. So basically 25.5. Somewhat weird when I say it out loud, but ok.

Hadn’t thought about Remco dropping out. Guess that may make sense for the Olympics.

I don't think Remco plans on dropping out but Rodriguez is pretty much a lock for top 10 and a fairly consistent rider (but no shot at winning)

Remco's ceiling is higher by far but the odds of him exploding (like he has already done previously in a Giro & Vuelta) on one stage is higher. If he does that, he will lose a ton of time of purpose just for the sake of winning a stage.

Men's Olympics ITT is July 27. Road race is August 3. TdF ends with an ITT instead of a Tour d'Honneur on July 21. The 4 stages before that have a combined 15km of elevation.

Hard to see anyone trying to medal in the Olympics ITT going super hard in week 3 of the TdF unless they have a shot at winning.

I love Pog's aggression but I do worry about going hard on stage 2. stage 4 looks like his best shot in week 1 to create some separation

No Paris = no champagne lap 'race' on the final day, but an actual race?


Isn't it generally the other way around? I thought anyone who could finish anywhere meaningful (top 10?), or maaaybe win a proper stage, give it their all, regardless of the Olympics

I would certainly think that the tour is more important than the Olympics in most GC riders minds

But I would also believe that once a podium becomes unlikely that a top tier rider like Remco or Jonas or whoever would cut their losses and save themselves if they thought an Olympic medal was a more realistic possibility.

Remco would rather an Olympic medal than coming 7th in the Tour.

qft

He was vvg yesterday.

The madman actually did it.

Apologies for no new thread this year, I had my mind on it but was busy in spring and never got around to it. I even had a great idea for a thread name "One team to rule them all" - referring to Visma. Seems the thread title curse has hit them all the same despite thread not materializing.

On topic, I'm still a firm believer in VingeGOAT, I think the time he's lost will be negligible in the third week, he was always going to be struggling to follow Pogacar early on. If Vingegaard's recovery becomes as much of an advantage as it usually is later on, I'm confident. But that's a big if considering his suboptimal preparation. That being said, Pogacar ought to also feel the Giro in the third week.

The thing I'm the most worried about is if Visma is too weak in the mountains to put on any real pressure.

Yep I agree with all of that.

I do think (and hope) that it’s Pog’s year but Jonas will get stronger. Visna’s showing on stage 4 was hugely worrying though

Yup that's a massive cause for concern. It may end up benefitting Vingegaard if Evenepoel and Roglic remain close in the GC. I don't think either of them will settle for 3rd until all hopes of winning are gone, and they may want to ride offensively in week three, which could serve Vingegaard's cause if his own teammates don't improve.

I don't expect that either of will be able to keep up in the long run, though - even though I have been very impressed by Remco so far.

attaboy Remco. Things are pretty well set up right now for GC but I really don't think either Remco nor the others will challenge for the top spot. Can only hope Remco doesnt have a bad day in the mountains (that's yet to be the case in any grand tour for him) so he can secure 3rd but that's absolute best case scenario imo.

bit of a meh week-end for the tour though. Am I supposed to be excited about the gravel stage of sunday? It looks like flat sections if I look at the route and even as a Remco fan I don't want anyone to lose the tour there. What excitement is in there for the fans except seeing who gets unlucky?

These make sense in one-day races where you can create seperation with power but in a GC, I don't like it.

Remco did really well to recover on stage 4. Looked ugly for a little while but he descended very well

I'm very excited for the gravel stage, but I fully agree that it's very bad for the race when GC aspirations are ended purely by (bad) luck on gravel or cobbles.

I think the stage should suit Visma really well, their team ought to be lot better than UAE in this sort of terrain. Pogacar himself is excellent on gravel (as he is everywhere), but if he's isolated and unfortunate it could be very costly (although I'm not sure I've ever seen him have a technical or a puncture).

Now that I've written this I'm fully expecting Vingegaard to puncture twice, drop his chain and also crash and Pogacar to go through scot-free.

Eh he lost time to Pogacar, Vingegaard and the Rodriguez/Ayuso/Roglic group on the first more technical part and recovered a little on the later less technical part.

Vuelta stage 13 last year?

Ok I don't want to look like I'm just a Remco hater, I think he's doing well and looking like a favorite to podium.

Hehe think I was well misunderstood. In all the grand tours he's taken part of and managed to get to the high mountains (he had to give up the Giro early after being in pink), he's always had days where he wasn't great (even in the Vuelta he won) and some days where he fully exploded (Vuelta last year and his first giro)

He punctured in this year's Giro and even fell because he tried to take a turn with his flat tyre

I see it now, I guess my reading comprehension failed me a little there.

Watching a recording of Stage 8 because apparently it was on NBC yesterday, in which case, lol NBC.

Lot of respect for Abrahamsen, going solo for a very long ways to scoop up the handful of KOM points. No chance he holds it the whole race, but he's not going to make it easy on anyone else.