Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinarocket
I keep hearing about how Col De La Loze is going to be in Jonas' favor but every time I thought one had the edge in this tour, I've been wrong.
Yet I'm going to throw another clueless guess that Vingegaard gains 22sec on Pogcar in the TT and the rest is going to Pogacar trying to attack Vingegaard unsuccessfully
I agree with them, I think Wednesday will be a win for Jonas. Before yesterday, I had it virtually even with a miniscule lead for Vingegaard (something like 51-49), but after Sunday I'd say it's more like 55-45.
Before the race, no doubt Wednesday was the stage Jumbo most emphatically considered to be Vingegaard-Day. It's an extremely difficult stage, it is very late in the race, and de la Loze is the highest altitude climb of the Tour, each of these three circumstances, in theory, favor Vingegaard.
Apart from the first two mountain stages where they dropped each other, the general development of their relative strength has IMO been unsurprising. It was expected for Pogacar to be (relatively) better earlier, while Vingegaard's super human recovery ability would mean the balance would gradually shift to favor him in the third week in the Alps. The difference between them has been microscopic, and the shift of balance has been extremely slow, but I would argue that we have seen Pogacar struggle more with dropping Vingegaard each day.
Obviously, there's a difference between not getting dropped and then yourself dropping Pogacar, but the Wednesday stage is practically tailored for Vingegaard - and it bears mentioning that in every Tour Pogacar has raced, he's been dropped on the highest altitude climb - including the very same one they're going up on Wednesday. On the other hand he wasn't exactly struggling on Tourmalet which is also quite high, but that was also early in the race.
How Wednesday will play out depends entirely on the TT, because if Vingegaard does not lose time, I doubt Jumbo will take a very attacking approach Wednesday - and, obviously, if Pogacar puts 45 seconds into him the above analysis goes out the window, as it will be a good indicator that he is just at a better fitness level currently.
I expect the TT to be close, but I favor Pogacar for it, as I consider him to be a better time trialist in general, and I think the stage suits him well. If they are relatively speaking at an equal level form and fitness-wise, I'd expect Pogacar to win, although not by more than 10-15 seconds.
Although this analysis is probably (at the very least) what I hope as much as what I actually believe. No doubt it is still anyone's game and it will likely be extremely close.