I"m so sorry holiday.

Also, before last week I'd have had tOSU -3.5, as is I've got Michigan -1.5!

I am pretty sure I have heard them say at different times that Championships are the most important factor and only a minor thing they use when they run out of other tie breakers, so I imagine they will make their decision and then rationalise things to fit the decision they made.

I"m pretty much at a total loss to see your side of it. I guess that's what makes the world go round. Right now Bama is levels beyond OSU that can only be made up by 2 Bama losses, imo. Saban left out when they know damn well he's hands down the best team, needs TONS more downside results than OSU or anybody else. What's your angle with this? If OSU beats Michigan and Big 10 Championship Game they pass one loss Bama in committee. From 3 levels behind them right now? If we were at the table I'd bet a dime on it and just shake my head, thinking well maybe I've got a real blind spot here but so be it.

Seems to me buckeyes have spent the season proving they aren't close to elite. Struggled with not so strong TCU, Penn St, and Minnesota and routed by Purdue with D and O showing huge weaknesses. Meanwhile Alabama has spent the season showing they might be the best team ever (much more to be seen). So Ohio State passes them each with one loss??? A Bama loss to LSU or GA is way more impressive than that Buckeye loss.

Meanwhile I hate this situation for my Nebraska going 5-7 or even 6-6, bucks coming off horrible loss and Meyer with an extra week. I"ve won 2 straight weeks on greatest ever 0-6 team. MIght have to take OSU game off and get back on them. Not sure.

As soon as we saw what Tua was last year, I said they were a threat to Oklahoma's all-time winning streak if not for the loss to Auburn last year. If not for that loss running the table this year would be 29 in a row. Not so far-fetched. A last play loss to Clemson the year before or already 47 in a row or so. Sick. This gets passed because someone equals their loss total this year?

Sorry about your dog Holliday

god damn

My "angle" is pretty simple; 12-1 B1G champ almost always gets in. Every year. If it's Ohios State or Michigan, even more so. Same as the SEC, really, as far as 1-loss champs go. I showed the math behind their 96% chance, but you're probably blind spotting the part where, in order to go 12-1, they have to play pretty well from here on out (while Alabama becomes a loser). They have only about a 21% chance of winning out, and that's the only reality we need to consider for this scenario. When tOSU plays well, people eat that **** right up just like when Alabama does or Michigan does.

Take your crazy talk about Alabama being the greatest team ever, for instance; it'll be week 10 before they play their second game against a top 25 team and their first game of note on the road. That's not much of a resume for such accolades and better opponents will make them look vulnerable. In the reality where they lose to LSU only (21%) and miss the CCG because LSU wins out (42%), which is what we're talking about, then LSU will have beaten Alabama's 2 toughest opponents (TAMU and Auburn) both on the road instead of at home PLUS Georgia PLUS Miami. Regardless of what happens in the East and CCG, Bama's going to look awfully unqualified next to that. Not to mention a big chunk of their loss probability comes from Tua getting hurt.

Meanwhile tOSU will be *not* be going out and looking like they did at Purdue last week (in this reality) and will wind up with 3 or 4 wins better than anything Alabama had this year. On perceived talent and experience level, a lot of people had tOSU ahead of Bama anyway. If anything, they'll just find somebody else to bump in favor of Bama, and if there are two undefeateds so as not to allow that, then Bama's SOL and congratulations on that TAMU win that nobody even thought was important at the time.

Like, sure, losing at LSU is more respectable than that Purdue game, but "what have they won" becomes, "Wow, pretty much nothing." surprisingly fast in this reality.

Hope that helps.

Damn, feels.

Hope you and your dog enjoy your time together

They have published criteria and championships are one of the tie breakers but the key is those 4 only come into play when they think 2 teams are at a similar level

If they think one team is better than another then championships and sos and shared opponents

Or if one team has a better record then the tiebreakers don’t come into play (like last year with 1-loss Bama and 2-loss tOSU)

The three 0/1-loss teams get in 100%

Clemson
Bama
ND

Seeding in that order

Then only 2-loss teams are considered, so Wisconsin is out

For fourth spot, they look at UGA, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and B12 champ to see if any are clearly above the others. If not (likely) then they look to the four tie-breaking criteria:

H2H
Conference Champs
SOS
Common Opponents

I’m not getting into SoS at this point in the season, but H2H plus Conference Champ means UGA is in over LSU so we can eliminate LSU

I think H2H likely eliminates Michigan vs OSU

And then OSU lost its championship so has an uphill battle against UGA, Washington and B12 so it’s likely not in (unless SOS is that much better which it likely isn’t)

So UGA is conference champ, beat a high-ranked LSU and won the SEC (and just made the title game last year if you think that matters) which I think gets them in over Washington and B12, unless SOS ends up much worse, but Washington and B12 don’t have as good of a win as beating LSU in this scenario (which also avenges their only loss this year) and SEC has more pedigree than those two conferences (and won a lot of out of conference games)

Washington also lost to a 5-6 loss Auburn who UGA beat in this scenario which gives UGA the nod over Washington

From B12, Oklahoma coming out is their best case scenario; texas lost to Maryland and Oklahoma only lost barely to Texas and then avenged that in the champ game giving them a great win over a 1-loss team, but Oklahoma also lost a second game in this scenario which can’t be to west Virginia unless West Virginia loses 2 other games besides Iowa state...so any b12 team coming out is a mess for trying to get into the playoffs


So it’s
1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. ND
4. UGA

This doesn’t fully account for SOS but I don’t see their SOS being meaningfully better than UGA’s

I think in the end this foursome isn’t even a tough decision for the committee even tho it seemed chaotic and complex on the surface

Some early debates here.

As far as 2+2 NCAAF debates go, how many of you have been around long enough to remember the epic 2006 debate involving Michigan and Florida and which team should play Ohio State in the NC game.... Man, that was heated...

I’m just now recovering from this burn.

I can only hope Holliday’s wife, dog, and anyone else unfortunate to get within his Midas touch orbit are so lucky.

1. # of losses

2. Strength (Vegas ranking) of team.

So the PC has never really varied from this criteria? The only wrinkle is that they might flip 1,2 if Bama somehow got 2 losses.

SPARTY

Thanks for the dog sentiments fellas.

Took her to an oncologist this morning who is actually optimistic she will respond well to treatment, and quickly and without side effects like people get. Not 100% chance but she's not an underdog either. Even if it doesn't "work" it will still help her somewhat and he thinks, now, we'll be at least talking in terms of weeks instead of days (and hopefully much more than that after a couple of weeks). First good news we've gotten since I started to wonder why my ravenous dog was looking like she was starving to death.

It's a big veterinary hospital. Evidently they see dogs all the time that come in looking like the face of death from cancer and they usually make it back to feeling normal (which for dogs means awesome). This is yet another in the long list of upgrades we've gotten by moving from Alabama to Atlanta.


Anyway, I'm a little ashamed of some of my recent posting; I can't believe I've been this tolerant of this insane Alabama theory. You deserve to be mocked for this. Did you know that if they lose to LSU and miss the CCG, their "best" win could easily be over a 7-5 team? This is not hyperbole; I'm not even sure who that'll be because there are 4 teams who are huge dogs to be any better than 8-4, especially since they'll have to lose to Bama and/or LSU from here on out. 7-5 is very realistic for all of them, too, not some pie-in-the-sky end of the world ****:

*TAMU is ranked 16 right now with only 2 losses to Bama and Clemson but they have to lose to LSU on the last week of the season, so best case they finish 9-3. This very weak they are your proverbial "ranked team underdog to an unranked opponent (Cowbell) on the road" and next week they'll be in the same boat against Auburn! 16% chance to win both and a 36% chance to lose both. 7-5 totally, totally realistic. In fact, they *could* throw in a loss to Ole Miss or surprisingly decent UAB (a ~24% chance they drop one of those). And that's Alabama's BEST win!

*Missouri is ranked "others receiving votes" right now with 3 losses. They got Kentucky, @UF, Vandy, @UT, and Arky on deck with a 61% chance of losing 2 or more of those (including a 5% chance of losing them all--ha!). Would take an upset to get as high as 7-5! Also, I'm just kidding--Mizzu didn't get any votes, lol. They are #30 in Sagarin though, but no votes even in the coaches poll.

*Auburn is ranked "others receiving votes" right now (for real; 5) with 3 losses. The necessary loss to Bama means 8-4 best case. Needing to win at Georgia makes that best case pretty best indeed! They're like 10% to win out before Bama, but you can call it 17% if you want to go ahead and figure TAMU takes that loss. I'll just assume they beat Liberty for this exercise. 7-5 is actually pretty optimistic (LOL Washington).

*Mississippi State is also ranked "others receiving votes" right now with the surprisingly sub-Auburn tally of "2" having 3 losses and yet to play Alabama. 8-4 best case and if we presume beating TAMU then they still have a 40% chance of dropping one to LaTech, Arky, or @ the Egg Bowl. I do, however, think that if MSU manages to go 8-4 they have a chance of giving Alabama a coveted "win over ranked opponent" BUT...they probably need to make that Alabama loss close which would be *kind of* a problem for Alabama's perception.

I know you guys are jaded and impressed by Alabama at the same time, but please try to stop being so goddamned stupid about them. There is an UNSPEAKABLE chasm in their accomplishments should they FAIL to beat LSU AND not beat the SEC East champ compared to if they win out. If they win out; they beat LSU, they beat the East champ. They're undefeated returning champ. Meh, good enough. I forget who said the committee is a list of exceptions, but Alabama's resume in this scenario is a glaring exception. There is *no way* a 12-1 B1G champ is getting bumped by this clown resume

Without beating LSU, they'll literally be left hoping Arkansas State can pull an upset in the SunBelt championship game or trying to talk up whichever sadsack luckboxes an 8th win. Quick--let's check if the Citadel has a good record! They will have beaten absolutely no one. And I don't just mean 2017 tOSU "no one", I mean like 2017 UCF no one.

And I haven't even *approached* the topic that, if LSU wins the CCG, then the committee would be arranging a potential rematch as opposed to last year when Bama and UGA had at least not played each other before. You may even recall the conventional wisdom last year was they needed Auburn to lose the CCG for that reason. Yes, we've seen LSU's beautiful season ruined in the same way before, but I can't imagine the committee will want to risk repeating *that*.

I mean, I'm an Alabama fan but they don't have any margin for error at this point barring some real chaos. Nor should they. They have ONE GAME and a bye for it.

lol I see years of posting haven't brought you even one step closer to figuring out why people think you're an *******

I was reading the politics thread and saw you were banned. guessing this is why.

Ok you made a very nice post. Lots of nice logical points. Now here's reality. If Michigan runs the table and Alabama slips up and somehow loses a game, everyone in the world--including michigan fans--will know that Alabama is the better team. Last time I checked the committee is comprised of human beings. Do you really think they are gonna choose Michigan over Bama becuz of some decision matrix they made up that they really don't have to follow to begin with. You really think they're gonna stick to that when THEY KNOW--when EVERYONE KNOWS--Alabama is the superior team. Give me a break. Again, you made a nice, sparkling post with lots of cool points, but you're basically assuming humans are superrational computers who have to follow some laid out algorithm. IOW your post is completely divorced from reality.

Well, FINALLY someone who knows how to back these things up with money! For you, ILP baby, no escrow needed. That's how much I trust you. Name your price.

Michigan will have 5 wins better than any of Alabama's, without tOSU's handicap of a worse loss. On the day Alabama loses to LSU, you'll be beating Penn State. On the day Alabama makes Auburn 7-5 or 6-6, you'll be beating Ohio State at the whore schu.

Honestly, you guys are so bad at scenario planning. How do you think LSU beats Alabama? The two most likely ways are either Alabama looking terrible or LSU looking great. If Alabama looks terrible in their only game, then who wants to bend over backwards for them? If LSU looks great, then they're the team you want anyway. Say LSU keeps pace with the Tua points factory--how LOL does the Bama defense look for THAT? Say LSU shuts down all scoring into "their style" of slogging field-position battle to win--then that scoring was all a fraud!

Michigan's only handicap would be the potential rematch with Notre Dame, but that's mitigated by it being the season-opener and is probably only going to come up if they're down to you OR 1-loss Notre Dame for the final slot. And in that case they might make Alabama 5th instead of 6th for some sort of symbolic reason. We're saying "11-1 Alabama makes it and 12-1 Michigan does not" for the bet. You can insert, "because we know Alabama is better which makes it totally different than Ohio State in 2015, despite never seeing Alabama defeat a top 30 team" if you want.

Edit; the more I think about it, the more convinced I become that, rematch or no, when people on the committee picture setting up a natty game between Michigan and Notre Dame, they masturbate.

Dude, I ended up losing around $7,500 on Michigan vs ND. The sick part is I even made a tilt bet on the 2H line for $4,300 (Michigan -4). Luckily that pushed. Either way I'm done for the year. I blew my allowance before labor day. I got problems. I'm not putting any money on any more of my LOCKS until next September. Gotta lick my wounds for the next 10 months.

Yeah I'm pretty convinced I'm right, and I'm pretty convinced you have a much higher opinion of humanity than me. Thank god this nightmare scenario where Michigan or Ohio State is ****ed is still a very low probability outcome. Maybe ND or Clemson will slip up, and most likely Bama will run the table anyways since they may just be the best team in college football history.

Edit: or maybe it's me that has more faith in humanity......I can't tell anymore

538 gives Purdue a 33% chance of making the playoffs if they win out

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

Probability of making playoffs if win out:

Texas: 98%
Oklahoma: 92%
Michigan: 87%

Hmmm, this seems disturbing.

Consider it a reason to hope Maryland loses the rest of their games.

Hey, Holliday, hope your pup beats the odds. I have a 17-year old dog whose health I think about every day.