Bama wasn’t defending champs; they had lost to Clemson the prior year

LSU has an 8% chance of winning out before the SECCG, Bama easily gets left out circa 2015 tOSU in that scenario, and this still hinges on that 22% chance of both Clemson and ND running the table to even make this a battle for 4th place instead of 3rd.

bama is in with 1 loss to lsu or in the conf title. thats a lock.

Goddamnit I forgot to push new ratings before running resume rankings. Here they are, fixed:

1. Notre Dame 32%
2. Clemson 35% / Alabama 35%

4. LSU 57%
5. Michigan 65%
6. Ohio State 69% / UCF 69% / Texas 69%

9. UGA 71% / Kentucky 71% NC State 71%

Eh I think they'd have a tough time putting Bama in if Clem, ND, LSU, and Mich/OSU all run the table.

The committee spends so much time talking about conference championships being important that I don't know that I can see 11-1 Alabama getting in when their best wins are home wins against TAMU and MSST.

I know they did it last year but that was with a 2-loss B1g champ. You keep missing this, the most important difference by miles. Nothing else is even worth talking about--it's all tiny percentage chances for things that *might* eliminate you in some other years and don't apply here.

Yeah we just know committee may prefer 1 loss over 2 loss. Not really shocking.

Of the teams in the discussion, those currently in the top 20 for ypp defense are Michigan (#1 by this measure, and by a lot), Clemson, Iowa, Kentucky, Alabama, and Wash State. (most the teams in the top 20 are 1 or 2 loss teams; LSU, UGA, UF are all in the top 30).

If you just average ypp rank and ypp against rank you get the following ranking (which obviously needs to be adjusted for SOS, but then would be reasonably good):
Clemson
Alabama
App State
Michigan
Penn State
Georgia
Wash State
Fresno St
Oklahoma
Utah State
Central FL
Florida
Notre Dame
UAB
Washington
Miami (FL)
Arizona St
Miss State
S Florida
Houston
Maryland
North Texas
Troy
W Virginia
Oklahoma St

Kentucky is at 38, OSU at 39, LSU at 60.

LSU has been out YPP'd by Miami, Auburn, Louisiana Tech, Florida and Mississippi State and went 4-1 in those 5 games lol.

In their 7 division 1 games, LSU is outgaining opponents 5.25 YPP to 5.02 YPP.

That's the profile of a 4-3 team (Albeit against good competition), not a 6-1 team.

Conversely, Purdue has outgained opponents in 6 of 7 games, and has a massive 7.1 to 5.7 YPP edge

Can someone else put up the weekly thread? Just confirmed my dog has cancer and quite far along. We don't have much time and it would probably only be a really sad preview like, "Who cares about this game they're all going to die anyway." over and over again.

Thanks and catch you later.

Condolences Holliday

I can do one tonight or tomorrow. I can’t guarantee it’ll be as good as yours are though. And my condolences. My cat was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago so I know the feeling. She had some small tumors all over her body that were removed. Who knows if they’ll come back though. She seems to be doing fine now. Just cherish the time you have left with your animal. That’s all you can do.

Best of luck Holliday dog.

Sorry to hear that Holliday.

Best wishes

It is to give teams like this hope. It is all a bit of a charade, but over-ranking them will never put the committee in a tough spot, as they will never be high enough to slip into the top 4 if chaos occurs in the P5. I expect the committee will rank them in a similar fashion as the AP and coaches do.

I would normally be opposed to what they are doing, but if you look at it as (1) helping support interest outside of the P5, (2) helping non P5 teams recruit better prospects, and (3) getting a top non P5 team a better bowl game, then I don't see a big problem with having USF as 10th, full well knowing that they are an underdog to the next 10 teams below them.

Sorry to hear about your dog, Holliday..

Lol

Don’t see 11-1 team with 40 pt avg MOV that wins title every other year making it this year

Sorry Holliday

I mean sure, go ahead and take my post totally out of context. There are a **** ton of scenarios where 11-1 Alabama gets in and a few very specific ones where they do not.

If undefeated Bama loses SECCG they’re in. This happens infrequently enough to be unworthy of discussion.

If Bama loses at #4 LSU, and goes 11-1, they’re in. This is true even if LSU wins out. Bama will bump Michigan/Ohio State winner if they run table (and Clem ND win out)

There are, to my eyes, zero plausible 11-1 Alabama run outs where they don’t get in.

The above posts should be the working assumption until real life proves it wrong. All Michigan fans should be rooting for Bama to win out or more specifically not lose to LSU/Georgia. The nightmare scenario where a 1 loss B1G Champ gets left out is a real and scary possibility.

+1 Best of luck to Holidog

SECez winning the CG is indeed a statistical anomaly. But it is a little more likely with their improvement.


That's my fav scenario because it makes the committee de facto admit that Bama just has to get to 11 wins per yr. Bonus, let UF pick up a 2nd loss to FSU, then upset Bama in the SECCG. Bama drops to#3 and UF is 5th, SECCG revealed as an exhibition.

That's the huge question and I'm not sure the answer. Alabama is the most dominant team we've seen in a lonnnnnnnng time, but with the way the committee weighs conference championships, I think I would side with a 12-1 OSU/Michigan to make it. Alabama would clearly still be better team, but I think the committee would take the conference champ.

But it's like 60/40.