Feel like they still need more than that.

Think they would be behind a 1-loss Clemson and 1-loss ND. Not even sure they would be in front of a 2-loss LSU.

If Purdue runs the table to finish at 10-3 with a B1G championship victory over a 1 loss Michigan or Ohio State, I wonder can they sneak in over a 2 loss team (potentially Oklahoma/Notre Dame/Georgia) with a convincing win in the B1G championship

Pretty much 0% chance that Purdue gets into the playoffs. I don't know that we'll ever see a 3-loss team make it in, especially not when the 3 losses are to 3 unranked teams.

While I don't think it's technically impossible, it would require chaos the likes of which have never been seen before.

UCF AD wrote a letter out or something about the unfairness

They've really skyrocketed to most annoying team/fan base and I look forward to their regression back to nothingness

For 10-3 Purdue or 13-0 UCF:

Pac-12 can kill itself pretty easily. In fact, might even be more likely than not to produce a 3 loss champion.
Stanford / Wazzu / Washington all play a round robin. If they all go 1-1, then Pac-12 north is done. If one of them goes 2-0, that team could easily lose another game. (to like Cal for example, where UW is only -10 somehow, or in the Pac-12 CG).

Oregon/Utah loser is also out, Utah could also easily lose.


Big-12 can also cannibalize pretty fast, but no guarantee a 2 loss champ is behind UCF or 10-3 Purdue. Like if Texas loses @ Ok State this weekend, then rips off wins over #13 WVU, @ Texas Tech, v ISU, @ KU and then top-10 Oklahoma again, they're probably in.

Similarly, if OU loses @ Texas Tech but beats KSU and @ WVU and then 11-1 Texas, they're probably in for sure over those teams as well. Best case scenario is probably for Texas to lose twice (@ Ok State and @ TTU for example) then win the title by beating OU or WV for the second time.


In the SEC you want just Bama to emerge, which shouldn't be too hard. (LSU gets thrashed by Bama, and loses @ ATM for good measure, who is also very likely to lose a third game to Miss / Miss St / Auburn).

Kentucky will probably lose 2 more and be a non factor. UGA/Florida loser is probably out, and the winner could lose another 1 before the SECCG just to be safe. Ideally to FSU or GT (not impossible)

ACC is hard, most likely is just Clemson comes out undefeated and that's your second team. But they still could lose a late game (@ FSU, @ BC, v USCe) then the title. Only other contenders are Miami/VT/BC who all play each other. NC State loses a 2nd just to be sure.

Notre Dame has losable games @ Northwestern, @ USC v FSU and v Cuse. A favorite to lose 1, though losing 2 is less likely. Losing the last one @ USC would be a crusher if they've already lost 1.


Purdue gets Wisconsin and Iowa at home, both of whom still also play Penn State and could bounce the Pedos. Michigan / Ohio State is a nice elimination game too, Purdue prefers Michigan to win since they already thrashed Ohio State, and would get to beat 11-1 Michigan in the B1G CG.


Purdue could end up with wins over #2 Michigan, #6 Ohio State, top-25 Iowa / Sparty / Wisconsin and maybe even top-25 BC if BC if BC beats 2/3 of Clemson VT and Miami.

They'd have won 10 in a row, and their first 3 losses were beginning of the season by 8 total points.

The could make it for sure. It helps that they can eliminate so many contenders, unlike UCF who basically has to count the B1G as getting a slot one way or another.



For the sake of simplicity say Oklahoma, Clemson and Bama win out and nobody else in those conferences is in contention.

Utah loses a late game or two and then wins the Pac with 3 or 4 losses. Notre Dame loses to FSU and USC. Wisconsin/Iowa/Purdue finishes 8-4 and wins the B1G West and then wins the title game decisively over Ohio State who finishes 10-3 (loses @ MSU then beats Michigan).

UCF would be in there for sure, and that's not even that much chaos.

Suuuuch a huge bummer that Houston lost that shootout to Texas Tech. They have so much legitimacy with the win over Arizona in back to back years and the two wins over Oklahoma and Louisville the year before that and Ed Oliver name recognition.

Cincy has the win over UCLA and South Florida beat GT and Illinois. Bummer Cincy lost to Temple (who beat Maryland)

Not sure if it's better for UCF to face down 11-0 USF in the last game of the season again, or if they'd prefer Houston to win and go 11-1 and be ranked for the title game. (i.e. who are they rooting for this weekend?)

If Pitt somehow finishes 7-5 that would be helpful.

Undefeated has some cachet, so I suppose they want to play 8-2 Cincinnati, then 11-0 USF (probably ranked ~15 by then) then 10-2 Houston.

Reeeeeeally would be sick if Navy could pull a miracle and beat ND both knocking of ND and making that game more legit too in spite of Navy's awful record

They will be by next week after someone loses the Cocktail Party.

Yeah that's Danny White. He's completely insufferable and convinced they deserve to get in if they win out because "nation's longest winning streak" yes your fortunes this year should be determined in part by how you fared in prior years. (Somehow this logic was inapplicable last year coming off a losing season and two-years removed from an 0-12 campaign.)

Penn State beats Michigan. (possible)
Michigan beats Ohio State. (possible)
Iowa loses to somebody. (likely)

In that case it's incredibly likely, almost 100% that the B1G is not in the CFP.

After last season, I'm realistically skeptical that would even get UCF into the top ten. It's unlikely both the SEC and Big 12 won't have anyone else with like 2 losses, plus even in your scenario the committee could just take 10-2 Michigan or 10-2 Notre Dame.

OTOH, UCF's schedule *does* have some advantages over last year's stretch run; Temple, Navy, Cincinnati, and @ South Florida are all reasonable live bodies or better with the bookend games on Thursday or Friday nights so plenty of opportunity for them to "be seen". I suppose it also *may be* possible the committee essentially gives them credit for beating Auburn in the bowl.

Meh, I'm not going to get my hopes up until I see UCF placed anywhere seeming to have a chance of making the top 4.

I drink a lot of Black and Gold kool-aid Redd, but I can't even drink that one.

Which part of this would you be doing differently, were you in his position?

The problem for UCF is that their strength of record is almost never going to be top 5.

no

Thanks for the info. It might not be as crazy as I initially thought then.

It's also kind of cool to have people hating on the school. It was always such a bad and irrelevant program that anytime they started doing well everyone else did the underdog pity love thing where they said "aw good for them!" and now we've got people being annoyed and mad at the audacity of thinking they've done well enough to deserve an opportunity for something bigger.

I've watched USF get national recognition back in the mid/late 00s, think they were hot **** now, and then fall back into awfulness (they even stopped doing the USF/UCF rivalry game because they thought it was beneath them once they got ranked a couple of years in a row) so I know that this type of success is fleeting for a smaller program and you shouldn't get in over your head with your year to year expectations. It's just been fun to watch over the last couple years.

This seems correct, but you definitely have a different definition of "not even that much chaos" than I do.

You need a lot of stuff to go your way, but you could do it with barely any 7+ upsets, and there are lots of shots to get upsets.

I don't think they are gonna take a 10-2 Michigan team that lost in the last game of the season. It's not like the Ohio State or Bama teams that didn't win their conferences but finished 11-1.

10-2 Big-12 team is tough, b/c they would have ended the season by winning their conf, but Texas could easily lose 2 games then win the conf and finish 9-3. I agree if Oklahoma or Texas loses this weekend then wins out they are in over UCF.

Pac-12 would require chaos to NOT cannibalize itself, they're all but dead already.



SEC could easily finish with no two loss teams. Right now you have:
Kentucky, UGA and UF.
LSU and ATM.

Assuming LSU loses to Bama, they and ATM play each other, so the loser has 3 losses. If ATM wins that game, they are heavily favored to pick up a third loss.


Winner of the UGA/UF game picks up a second loss in the last game of the season, the SECCG. UGA also plays @ Kentucky, v Auburn, v GT. Florida also plays Mizzou, USCe and FSU.

Kentucky plays @ Mizzou (touchdown dogs), @ Tennessee and @ Louisville. Nobody is really taking them seriously.

ACC can't produce a 2 loss non champion except NC State or BC, and they're both heavily favored to lose 1+ regardless

Usually at this point of the season, the thing that's hard is "team x might lose but then that would vault team y ahead of UCF" but this year you have TONS of team Y type teams that are pretty good, could pull upsets, but aren't a threat to jump UCF.

Like Mississippi State, Auburn, Utah, USC, Colorado, Washington State / Stanford loser, Cal, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia (possibly), TCU, Purdue, Penn State (if they lose a 3rd game), Michigan State, Wisconsin (if they lose a 3rd game), etc. etc.

BC/Miami/VT round robin loser... Florida State could wreck havoc for UCF: They play Clemson, @ NC State, @ ND, BC and Florida. If they can win a couple games against that tough slate, that would do wonders

Imagine if FSU beats Clemson, NC State, ND and Florida and loses to BC who also loses a 3rd game

what if bama loses to lsu and then lsu or george wins the sec with 1 loss?

then bama and lsu/georgia make it along with clem and nd.

Can't think of much that can save UCF at this point. They tried with their schedule, but Pitt ended up not very good and UNC game was canceled but they're awful anyway. Had they played those 2 and they were having a season like NC State is, they'd have more of an argument.

Probably mandatory that USF wins out and the matchup to end the regular season between 2 undefeateds might get them some pub. Then hammed a 2-loss Houston in the title game. Still probably a 0.5% chance even if all that happens.

Just to be clear, I completely agree with your thesis. It's just that the people who actually decide these things did not appear to see it that way and I expect their attitude to continue.

USF is one of the worst undefeated teams ever, no idea how they're ranked. Before last week UConn was 0-5 vs FCS schools with all 5 losses by 30+ points and 4 losses by 40+ points. USF beat them by 8. Beating an 11-1 Houston whose only loss is TTU would be way more impressive.

2014 osu was analogous to last years bama. they were the defending champs who lost a super fluky game to the only strong team they played all year, a very strong msu team.

2017 bama were defending champs and played one good team all year and lost to a very good auburn.

lol at 2 sec teams as paranoia. it happened last year! hell, if bama is smart they will lose to lsu so they dont need to beat themselves up in an extra super tough sec title game.

Sorry misread the part about 1-loss in his comment.