Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
well Ive explained in detail why, for this particular season, its quite likely they that they dont go. youre whole logic is hurp durp 12-1 osu lifes so not fair they always get in (not last year tho, and not with a goat team in 2015 and only 1 loss).
but here we are.
osu needs a super parlay to get in. even if bama wins out they still need clem or nd to lose and the big12 champ to finish with 2 losses.
if bama happens to lose to lsu or in the sec championship game, then they need 2 out of 3 of clem, nd, losing or big12 champ with 2 losses.
and do they really get in over a 1 loss clem or 1 loss nd? clem has been dominant the last 4 years and is loaded so committee may prefer them ala a 1 loss bama last year with a complete garbage resume and no good wins. nd will have a much better resume assuming their loss isnt a shellacking similar to 49-20.
so even if everything goes perfectly for them, they still dont have a lock resume to get in.
rolls eyes and opens up the archives all the way back to 2015. sees no B1G championship game participation. wonders why we're making this comparison before resigning to dismissive wanking motion.
Clemson's toughest regular season opponent is Duke and ND's isn't much better. Any losses they pick up will be "bad". Polls had you well ahead of them last week when you all had the same record, so yes you'll pass them if they lose given you'd be the one beating ranked opponents down the stretch. Oklahoma is 27% to win out and Texas is 2% (that low number means their probably not going to make it all the way to the CCG with their current ranking), and even in that 29% combined probability you're so scared of there's a decent chance you pass them anyway. Sure you got slaughtered at Purdue but Oklahoma got taken to OT by the US Army at home, and Texas lost to Maryland.
Things might get tight if BOTH Clemson and ND run the table, but that's only a 22% chance and would still leave SEC and *you* with that 29% chance of a Big12 school that would be a consideration. I'm not even going to consider your "2 SEC teams" theory because that's just your paranoia talking (although possibly we could bet on that one!).
*Ohio State wins out
*78% of the time one of Clemson or ND loses. You're in +78%
*of the remaining 22%, 71% of the time no Big12 team ahead of you runs the table, so You're in +15% = 93%
*of the 29% of the time Texas or OK wins out, let's say committee picks you half of the time, so 22% of 29% times 50%, so You're in +3% = 96%
So I've got you as 96% to make it should you win out. I just don't know why you're so glum. Well, other than the raped by Purdue thing.