I think it’s closer to 100/0 the other way. The only reason I’m not positive is that the committee is somewhat of a black box.

Iirc committee stated that it uses Conference Champ as a tiebreaker for two otherwise equal teams.

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t on the same planet as Bama; you just have to ask yourself three questions:
1. Does 2018 Bama ever lose to ND?
2. Does 2018 Bama ever beat Northwestern by 3?
3. Does 2018 Bama ever lose to Purdue by 29?

Nightmare scenario:

B1G West wins B1G CC, let's just say it's Wisconsin at 10-3. So Michigan and Ohio State finish 10-2 and 11-2.
LSU beats Alabama, loses to Georgia in SECCG. Georgia had beaten Florida, but lost to someone else (KY or Auburn?) UGA 11-2, Bama 11-1, LSU 11-2
Notre Dame loses to SC or FSU, 11-1.
Washington beats Wazzu and wins Pac CC, finishing 11-2.
Clemson wins out, 13-0.
Big 12 teams all 10-2.

Who the heck gets in now?

For #3, Saban has never lost by more than 14 points while at Bama, so no

But Saban HAS lost to Purdue by 24 points.

Clemson and Bama for sure
Committee values less losses

For the others, B1G is a cluster then. What did Big12 do?

Notre Dame doesn’t often get in with one loss but with all those 2-loss conference champs and beating 2-loss Michigan they prolly do

Yeah I had forgotten the B12. Let's say no one better than 10-2.

B10 conf champ at 2-losses would be over B12 and Pac champ at 2-losses but not sure if non-champ OSU would be above them

Prolly considering tOSU was #5 last year with 2 losses, tho neither was so late as the CCG, they would get the slight nod over the others

In your scenario, Kentucky would have to lose twice to not win East if beating UGA

Alabama
Clemson
UCF
ND

Yep. The committee isn't as dumb as we think. A 1 loss non-champ bama team is getting in over a 1 loss B1G champ. And there's no reason to be upset by that.

RAIDS; if you would like to make a wager that 11-1 Alabama makes the playoff while 12-1 Ohio State gets left out, I'm game and won't even go through the formality of asking for odds.

Clemson, Bama for sure

I think 2 loss non conf champs are out.

That leaves ND, Washington, Big12 champ. Assuming ND doesn't get worked in their 1 loss, I'd say they're in. That leaves UW and Big12 champ, where it obviously comes down looking at actual wins and losses.

Wouldn’t UGA get in as a champ

I'd definitely take that bet. Thing is, there has been a lot of legit subjective things getting OSU in on their borderline occasions. This year that is going against them. And I have Bama at approaching 100% in with one loss, whether 11-1 or 12-1, for legit and established reasons. I don't think the committee was bending things the Buckeyes way in the past, it was just legit rolling their way ... and the gig is up. It wasn't "let's get the Buckeyes in" going on, it was "Who has massive subjective value going their way, answer Ohio State" getting them in. If they were to dominate MIchigan and the championship game they'd be back on the bubble, clearly behind Alabama. Anyway I've got Bucks with two reg season losses even before the other night. When Meyer said they got exposed he meant it, he didn't say beat. They aren't elite straight from the horses mouth, mine too.

Last time Ohio State got in on bubble they lost by 30. Time before they got in on bubble they won title, "earning" the break next time on bubble (which was the 30 point loss). Last time Bama got in on bubble they won the title. Very recent history. The committee notices.

how does the big12 play out? I am assuming you want all the teams to have 2 losses there as well.

bama
georgia as sec champ
clem
ND

as usual 2015 ohio state tho

in 2015, the year after they had won the title and with most of the team returning, and as a neutral field favorite over every other team, the committee left out a 1 loss ohio state.

so no, the next time they were a bubble team they absolutely did not get in.

Anyone know current Ohio state / Michigan line? Guessing around tOSU -3?

I cede your point.

As a college football fan I will always be bitter about that. When the best team in college football, the most talented team Ohio State has EVER fielded, a team that literally broke the NFL draft, the defending ****ing national champions who pummeled Bama and the best of Oregon, doesn't get in becuz of one BS sideways rain fluke loss, something about the system is broken. That college playoff will ALWAYS have an asterisk by it. All college football fans got robbed that year whether they know it or not. There were two fake teams in the playoffs that year (Oklahoma and MSU). I don't care if you had to flip a coin, one of them shouldn't have been there.

These three for sure:
Clemson
Alabama
Georgia

Probably ND as the 4th, though there would be a lot of cries for UCF.

Well I was really just demonstrating how to make Raids disappear (he likes to practice his Socratic method skills by taking up die-hard-certainty arguing-without-merit-about random topics he neither knows nor cares about, evidently just to see how long he can do it and thinks this just makes him a lot of fun on an internet forum. Challenge him to back up his stated "beliefs" with money and *poof*, he's gone.) but getting an actual wager on top of that would be great! If you're OK escrowing $500-1,000 on the theory that the committee will never do to 2018 Alabama exactly what they did to 2015 Ohio State, I got no problem with that at all.

Quote to book.

Is heroball raids?

Fwiw I’ll last longer than your dog, probably.

At least my dog won't die friendless and alone.

K