1. Ohio State 29%
2. Notre Dame 33%
3. Alabama 42%
4. Clemson 42%
5. NC State 60%
6. LSU 66%
7. Texas 68%
8. Cincinnati 70%
9. Florida 71% - UCF 71% - USF 71%

NC State could jump to probably #2 with a win at Clemson.

Wazzu surprisingly little chance to move up given Sagarin doesn't respect Oregon much.

Michigan and Cincinnati are the only other teams with the ability to make a big move this week. LSU could climb a spot or two.

What are the odds we get bama, ohio state, clemson, notre dame in the CFP?

Quick guess I'd go around 5%.

538 has it at 11% right now assuming the 4 of them making the playoffs are entirely independent of each other. I think there's no way it's above 10%.

So after Notre Dame loses by 100 this time can we finally be done with them and treat them like we did the undefeated directional Florida school last year?

I wish.

The thing that sucks is that ND doesnt have to play what I call the "Fraud Game" before making it to the title, aka conference championships game.

Fraud games have done a pretty good job of preventing true frauds from making the playoff but unfortunately NDs fraud game is USC.

Its ridiculous that they still dont have to join a conference and get to sit at the big boy table

Yeah as far as "tradition" goes it would certainly be bad. otoh, "tradition" is what keeps bad teams in otherwise good conferences anyway so maybe some traditions deserve to die?

As far as preserving rivalries, you'd likely have to relegate entire conferences for that to happen, and we know they're not doing that, too much TV money involved for starters.

center is a direction? Also they should've been in the playoff.

Rivalries already are mostly dead thanks to $$$$$$$$.

Idaho moved down and well they suck down there too.

I hate ND for reasons I cant quite remember...lol probably all the over-hype and we are so special we don't need a conference thing..

That said, I think ND has a tough enough SOS that if they go undefeated they should be in the top 4 ahead of a 1 loss team.

But, any one- loss ND team will never get considered in the same light as a P5 one-loss team. At that is fine by me, as that is part of the price you pay for being an independent. If they don't like that, then win out or join a conference.

Honestly I don't know why they don't just call them "Florida-Orlando" and Florida-Tampa". I mean Tampa's only like 10 minutes further south than Orlando anyway, and a few hours north of Miami. Whole state makes no sense, could only be worse if Florida Atlantic were actually on the gulf.

"UFO" would be perfect since their fans are mostly alien to the concept of strength of schedule

Yeah the people that still want UCF in the playoff just hate college football. As a fan, I want the 4 best teams that deserve to be there. UCF will never meet either of those criteria

I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy, but making fun of their schedule is pretty lame.

In addition to scheduling top-tier competition (Michigan, FSU, USC, Stanford, Virginia Tech), they fill out the rest of their schedule with the 'grind of mediums' that's usually so deadly, when they really don't have to.

They also never play 1-aa teams. I'd wager that in any given year, the bottom half of ND's schedule is probably the hardest in the country.

I don't buy the "they will never meet that criteria" stuff.

Teams in P5 conferences, by and large schedule an ABC OOC - they play one good team, one decent team and one cupcake. Teams in the SEC add a second cupcake with their fourth game, and some teams like Baylor historically just schedule CCC.

If you're a G5 team that wants to make the playoff, you can't do that. Your schedule already probably has no A's, a couple B's and then mostly C's. You need to go AAB or something with your OOC to make it comparable. Hell, go AAA if you want. If you really are a top-4 team in the country, you'll have a decent shot to win all three of those and make the playoffs. Like, Florida has to play Georgia, LSU and Alabama, Sparty has to play Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin... why shouldn't UCF be expected to do the same?

2016 Houston did this - they played #7 Oklahoma and #15 Louisville and beat them both, and then also got decent USF (or would have) and Tulsa teams in conference. Unfortunately, they lost to Navy and SMU, which a true playoff contender never would have done.


2009-2012 Boise teams that went 49-4 and beat ****loads of ranked and top-10 teams would totally have had a playoff shot here.

That one year (2007?) USF beat auburn and was ranked no. 2 at one point. Had they won out I’m sure they would have been in the bcs title game. I forget who they lost to that year. Maybe multiple losses after auburn. Who did they lose to anyway?

Lol damn looked it up. USF went 9-4 that year which included losses to Rutgers and uconn lol. Don’t remember that at all. Obviously after they had their nice little run to the top of the rankings and then regressed to the mean

UCF went unbeaten and beat Auburn in the bowl game last year and Auburn beat both of the title game participants.

The problem is all the olds and people on this board keep looking at names on the jerseys rather than how good the team actually is. VT and FSU are clearly nowhere near top tier this year and should not be treated as such.

We'd have to go back and look for Boise, remember that TCU #3 win a blowout then end up totally missing at 5 or 6 getting bumped for the big schools. Same **** would've happened to Boise unless there was a clear gap. That year they played fellow unbeaten TCU they beat the pac 10 champ and still ended up #6.

UCFs marquee win was a double OT victory vs Memphis last year.

Please stop acting like they belonged in the title discussion

probably, the big east was a bcs conference though so not really relevant

Boise and tcu absolutely had some real chances though. could be mistaken but iirc one year Boise controlled their own destiny then choked against nevada. theyre also legit top 5 teams not around 15-20 like ucf is or a random undefeated hawaii/whoever

I'm being trolled on the grind of mediums I know. But I would like to see Bama's new conference records if their SECN games vs Citadel, UL-Bourbon St --> @Navy vs Tulane.

This seemed like a fun problem for math. So I have notre dame with the 18th hardest schedule in the FBS, and the 8th hardest of the top 25.

SOS is just the average rating of all your opponents (home/road adjusted)

Mostly the teams in the big12 have hard schedules because the big-12 is fairly hard top to bottom and they play a round robin. And the SEC typically schedule at least 2-3 cupcake games each year. Also for the WISKY haters I've got them last in the top 25, and 65th overall.

They didn't really, though. That was 2010 when undefeated Auburn played undefeated Oregon in the BCSCG. No way Boise would've gotten in over either of them.

You rang?

Is this a ranking of SOS *to date* or for the full regular season?

+1