If Tua and Jalen are injured vs UGA I got UGA -3

this is completely on the money

I have not been on the NCAAF threads much for the past 2 or 3 years. Is there a post/link that outlines what the percentages mean, and what data goes into the formula?

The percentages are the chance an average top 5 team would have that record against the schedule faced.
The data for strength of teams faced is from Sagarin.

It's "accomplishment ranking".

it was the typewriter standard. it wasn't the standard in the 90s, even, other than for troglodyte teachers, and the students who took their word as gospel (I was one of them)

Yeah it was pretty much never used on anything published but it's in ****loads of letters because the cheerleading coach running "typing class" would fail you if you didn't and then it would just stick as a habit.

If there even *is* such a thing as typing class anymore, they probably still teach that.

The official justification was to distinguish between an abbreviation and an end of a sentence. Regardless, I took typing class and have trouble unlearning it.

Yeah I’m resigned to the fact that I’ll be 2 spaces for life. I think I saw a study recently that 2 spaces is ever so slightly easier to read, also.

I know it drives the haters mad but we could play a whatever team playoff 8 times and the champ would 8/8 come from Alabama/Clemson/Georgia - it is what it is.

“The South Got Something To Say” - Andre 3000

“It’s Time to Tee it Up Between the Hedges” - Quavo

13. Florida indeed

Still 7. LSU

Kentucky fell all the way to 17th, still two places above Utah.

This year more than others feels like actually playing the games doesn't matter. They have a general idea of where they think a dozen or so teams should be and they will hover around there regardless of winning or losing on Saturdays.

I disagree. There just haven’t been enough losses from the top teams to make a differentiation between the group at the top.

It's not about the teams at the top. Those teams haven't lost so it makes sense they would stay. I'm referencing the other teams.


Some examples:

- LSU was ranked 5th at 5-0. Now they are 8-2 and are 7th.
- Florida was ranked 14th at 5-1. Now they are 7-3 and 13th.
- UCF was ranked 12th at 4-0. Now they are 9-0 and 11th.
- Texas was 19th at 4-1. Now they are 7-3 and 15th.
- Penn State was 9th at 4-0. Now they are 7-3 and 14th.



These teams were ranked in a general area and despite varying records since then (3-2, 2-2, 5-0, 3-2, 3-3) everyone is pretty much in the same general area. Teams performing well aren't really moving up the rankings that much. Teams doing poorly aren't really falling down the rankings that much.

That’s because other teams played and lost also

Florida, Penn State and Texas have 3 losses but so do the teams behind them other than like Boise state and Utah state etc who play easier schedules and are down in the mid-20s

LSU is a bit of an outlier with 2 losses but the 1 loss teams behind them haven’t played a tough schedule and haven’t looked as elite on either end as LSU on defense; LSU has the best win of the season beating Georgia and one of their losses is to Bama...do you really think Washington state would have less than 2 losses with LSU’s schedule?

Teams are playing games and rankings are adjusting based on what is happening


Teams not moving around a ton in rankings during the season actually means that the rankings were pretty accurate early on...

Yeah it’s just an incredibly weird year with 2 teams in P5 leagues having 2 losses (LSU and Syracuse). So the teams with 3 losses have accumulated losses, but I’m not exactly sure which other 3 loss teams should be jumping Florida at this point.

Agree w Nicholas and Zimmer

Nothing weird with rankings at all. I think committee is doing a great job. It’s awesome that resume matters more than win-loss record and LSU can be rewarded for beating a bunch of top 30 teams. If Oklahoma or West Virginia goes 12-1 I expect them to jump LSU. Not sure about Wazzou.

Gee I wonder why?

C'mon guys; LSU's 2-2 against teams the committee bothers to rank and should have been jumped beating Arkansas by a touchdown the week after getting their balls handed to them off a bye if not that actual week.

I'll tell you a 3-loss team that should be ahead of Florida; Utah. Same record with a nearly identical strength of schedule but ten spots (or 3.5 points) higher in Sagarin. 2 road losses + home to Washington, vs 2 home losses and neutral site loss. Combined losses total 36 points for Utah vs. Florida's 51.

For that matter, why not Kentucky ahead of Florida? Again, same record and not only did they beat @Florida by 11 but they also stomped Mississippi State better than Florida and getting trounced @ Tennessee may *still* be better than getting destroyed by Missouri at home. ****, Kentucky even won @Missouri AND beat South Carolina by 14 instead of needing a huge late comeback.

Vegas currently has Florida at 25th, 4 points below Texas, Washington, and Penn State, and 3.5 below Iowa State. Washington is the only one whose schedule is notably softer with a couple of the other's significantly better. They're like the worst of the 3 loss teams.

Holiday beat me to the specifics on why it's silly for LSU and Florida to be so high while others aren't (though I touched on how teams going 3-3 and not moving is ???), but I also want to disagree with the concept of "Teams not moving around a ton in rankings during the season actually means that the rankings were pretty accurate early on..."

That's a flawed way of looking at things imo. Using the committee's rankings not fluctuating as evidence that the committee's rankings are good is circular logic. The rankings don't fluctuate because they are good - and the implied reverse of the rankings being good because they don't fluctuate - kind of ignores the entire argument being presented. The argument is that the rankings are poor because they don't factor in what is happening on Saturdays (examples included in my previous post) and that the committee has just decided these teams are right around there and leave them there even when they go 2-2 over the next 4 games.

2-3, 3-3, 3-2, 5-0 made no real difference to where those teams were ranked. Actually beating the other team had no real difference to where those teams were ranked (Florida vs UK). Results vs common opponents had no real difference to where those teams were ranked. Strength of schedule had no real difference to where those teams were ranked (LSU barely beat Arkansas and nothing happened).

This is a new phenomenon and I don't really know what caused it shift this way.

Just for you all I updated the team dashboards - I gotcha.

https://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/...ashboards.html

Also

LSU was a 13.5 point favorite and was up 24-3 in 4th and won by 7. Why should they move down?

that's the main reason why its a joke to have UF at 13. The committee is treating them like they are a team that has a bunch of close losses and are just getting unlucky, when really they just suck. they have a 19 point loss to UGA (neutral), a 21 point loss to Mizzou @home and their closest loss is 11 points to Kentucky @home.

Meanwhile Texas has a 5 point loss @Maryland, a 3 point loss @Ok St and a 1 point home loss to WVU and a comparable win (OU neutral) to Florida's best win (LSU @ home). they should never be lower than Florida.

Iowa St has a 10 point loss @Iowa, 10 point loss @home vs OU and a 3 point loss @TCU and a comparable win (WVU home) to Florida's best win (LSU home). They should also never be lower than Florida.

The committee dropped Ohio St from #2 to #11 (and rightfully so) for getting blown out @Purdue, they dropped Utah from #15 to out of the top 25 for an 18 point loss @Az St, but somehow after BACK TO BACK 19 and 21 point losses, UF only drops from #9 to #15.

I'm fascinated by the #21 ranking for Mississippi State.

I mean, on one hand, I get it. The defense is fantastic.

Sagarin has them at 12, just dropped from 11 to 19 in S&P+, 11th in ESPN FPI.

On the other hand, with certified offensive genius Joe Moorhead running the show (albeit in year 1) and a multiyear starter at QB they've scored a total of 16 points in their 4 losses. Their best wins are over 4 loss Auburn and 4 loss aTm.

I guess it's just a testament to how bad everybody is this year if you have 4 loss teams in the top 25 with two weeks left in the regular season.

Ed Oliver should win the Heisman

This defense was mediocre with him and is the WOAT without him. Dude's probably worth 15 points a game

Both Auburn and A&M are at worst 2 loss teams playing in any other conference.