Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Is USC that much better than Washington, or are the home field advantages of Stanford/USC so strong such that Stanford is only -8.5 @ USC after being -20 vs Washington (and blowing the **** out of covering and the over)?
HFA is generally around 3.5, call Stanford's 3, so that's 17 points better than Washington, and 12 points better than USC so a 5 point transitive diff between USC and UW.
However, now that Stanford spanked the **** out of Wash, they're rated better than they were before that game, and USC won @ ND so they're perceived to be better too. If Stanford played Wash this week, the line would probably be a couple points higher, so we are looking at a realistic diff of 7 or so most likely. Obviously there's a limit to what you can do here, and there are a lot of other situational factors that are really skewing the lines one way or the other too. I think it's hard to play big road games the week after you win a hyped home game by a lot of points, but I don't remember exactly.
I wouldn't be surprised if USC/Wash was close to a pickem before last week, but Wash just took a huge - and USC got a huge + so if USC played Wash on a neutral field now it might be closer to USC -4 or -5.