Originally Posted by 72off
(score & venue adjusted 5v5 xg)
dallas stars
marchment 64%, benn 62%, stankoven 60%
johnston 59%, hintz 56%, duchene 55%
pavelski 54%, steel 54%, dadanov 53%
robertson 50%, seguin 50%, smith 49%
well this is tough when their worst xg performers are some of best offensive producers in robertson and seguin, while the other 3 lines are rather beastly. marchment has crushed the 7 games he played, and their even younger studs in johnston and stankoven are helping to carry the team. it's a deep and balanced attack. this is how florida looked in the regular season, with basically everyone at 50%+ xg. scary
suter 62%, harley 56%
tanev 56%, heiskanen 55%
lindell 51%, lundkvist 51%
and there's no real weakness on the back end either, so mcdrai won't get a lot of shifts vs guys who legit suck like vs the canucks. even petrovic who played 1 game rocked a 76% xg, chill bro. and they did this against two of the best teams in the league, the golden knights and avalanche. the oilers might be their easiest test yet. but let's see...
goaltender jake oettinger was shaky during the season with a career worst .905 save%, but has bounced back in the playoffs to the tune of .918. this team is looking like a buzzsaw
edmonton oilers
mcdavid 58%, mcleod 57%, hyman 57%
perry 56%, brown 55%, holloway 53%
foegele 52%, janmark 51%, draisaitl 51%
henrique 51%, kane 47%, ryan 40%
carrick 39%, nugent-hopkins 36%
their numbers are somewhat inflated because they dominated the canucks who failed to show up in 5 out of 7 games (full credit tho), and also played the kings who are ... idk. anyway i'll let the oilers fans elaborate on what these numbers mean, because i know for example that guys like mcleod and perry turned whopping xg stats into literally 0 points due to a lack of skill. vs the canucks it was obvious that they were spamming shots from anywhere and everywhere, i guess that was their strat vs a 3rd string ahl goalie, fair enough. also wtf at ryan nugent-hopkins. he's getting caved in apparently, but still has 9 points at even strength. this is all very funky stuff. also mcdrai both look like they're playing injured, but who knows
(doesn't seem to be bothering leon much, as he has a point in every playoff game)
ekholm 62%, bouchard 61%
desharnais 53%, kulak 46%
nurse 44%, ceci 39%
yeah so this is pretty top heavy huh. ekholm and bouchard are obviously good players, but they don't have much other help. desharnais is big and seems to know how to use his size, unlike say nurse. while cody ceci continues to be one of the worst players in the league. guy might end up playing 1000+ nhl games while literally never helping his team, incredible. ekholm and bouchard need to have the series of their life and the oilers need a buttload of powerplays for them to have any chance at all ... but the stars look like they play pretty clean. welp
oh and also the oilers have 2 goalies, both of whom are pretty bad. problem?
this series could be ugly ... oilers definitely need to throw their best punch in game 1