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NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2016 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2016
View Poll Results: Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Washington Capitals
15 22.73%
Chicago Blackhawks
13 19.70%
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 1.52%
LA Kings
13 19.70%
Pittsburgh Penguins
6 9.09%
Anaheim Ducks
2 3.03%
New York Rangers
2 3.03%
St. Louis Blues
2 3.03%
San Jose Sharks
3 4.55%
WANGZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
9 13.64%

04-12-2016 , 02:21 PM
i'm dumb to think that anyone other than Chicago is winning the Central, right?

Florida looks pretty good to ship their division as well, the other teams are all bad/hurt

looking forward to LA/Anaheim & Washington/Pittsburgh in the 2nd round
(hopefully the Pens are healthy by then)
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04-12-2016 , 02:57 PM
In for some playoffs!!!!! Let's go KANGZZZ!!!!!
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04-12-2016 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGunslinger
Let's go KANGZZZ!!!!!
D pairings at practice:
3-8
6-52
7-5
Spoiler:
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04-12-2016 , 09:06 PM
Nice OP, SYF.

Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
not enough heimlich maneuvers in the world for that to happen.
lol


Here we go with the Cardiac Kings! The pattern will continue...3rd Cup...incoming!!!!
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04-12-2016 , 11:40 PM
In for the playoffs.

5-star OP, Mr. SYF - Brad Wall would be proud.

Go Stars Go! #Russell
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04-13-2016 , 12:04 AM
I always sit in the cheap seats (except first ever Preds home game, my kid's 10th b-day, where I splashed out for seats on the glass). Have decided to get some nice seats this year, but can't afford 1st two rows.

So, which would be best tickets of these:


1) 3rd row in corner
2) 3rd row in end
3) Further up on side, lower bowl
4) Front row of club level


Thanks
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04-13-2016 , 12:12 AM
Wings
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04-13-2016 , 12:13 AM
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04-13-2016 , 12:15 AM
That was a quick preseason, WANGZZZZZZZ a lock as always
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04-13-2016 , 12:22 AM
Flames fan returns for playoffs wat

riding with WAYNE TRAIN i guess

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
So, which would be best tickets of these:

1) 3rd row in corner
2) 3rd row in end
3) Further up on side, lower bowl
4) Front row of club level
whatever is most central would be best i think

so 4 then?

edit: oh, front row? hmm
being low can kinda suck in the lower bowl, hard to see everything ... or so i've heard

Last edited by 72off; 04-13-2016 at 12:27 AM.
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04-13-2016 , 12:23 AM
Wangzzzz
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04-13-2016 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
I always sit in the cheap seats (except first ever Preds home game, my kid's 10th b-day, where I splashed out for seats on the glass). Have decided to get some nice seats this year, but can't afford 1st two rows.

So, which would be best tickets of these:


1) 3rd row in corner
2) 3rd row in end
3) Further up on side, lower bowl
4) Front row of club level


Thanks
4 and AIAEC imo. 3rd row you can't see **** really except you have a great vista for guys slamming into the boards right in front of you. (I'm assuming your club seats are between the face-off circles at least)
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04-13-2016 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz


Where's Nuts Hot Two at?
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04-13-2016 , 05:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
I always sit in the cheap seats (except first ever Preds home game, my kid's 10th b-day, where I splashed out for seats on the glass). Have decided to get some nice seats this year, but can't afford 1st two rows.

So, which would be best tickets of these:


1) 3rd row in corner
2) 3rd row in end
3) Further up on side, lower bowl
4) Front row of club level


Thanks
4 >>>>>> rest. Sitting on the glass or super close is kinda cool every now and then, but it's gets annoying once you realize that you have a terrible view of a decent % of the ice.

I'd prefer to sit high up in the lower bowl as close to center ice as possible depending on the prices. A lot of times club level is more than some lower bowl seats. hfgl
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04-13-2016 , 07:19 AM


Still the GOAT Playoffs Hype Video. Watched it like 10 times at work tonight.
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04-13-2016 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MediocrePlayer2.0
what do people think of this guys model?

He has Philly / Wash as a 50/50 series yet you can find Phily +350 so I mean that's a YOOOOGE discrepancy.

Would like someone to discredit his model before I go back up the truck on the Flyers
The Caps are interesting to me, but I haven't looked very deep into them. Perhaps Muresan or sylar can tell me if the following thoughts are right or wrong.

What I can tell you is that they got off to a great start, but their adjusted Corsi started taking a dive around games 20-30. Since then they've been in the middle of the pack, but they shot the lights out and Holtby had an amazing year, so it didn't matter much. They have an elite PP and have for a long time, so all of that combined is going to offset their mediocre possession stats. They also played without noted anchor Brooks Orpik for a lot of the season.

I don't think In/effec.tiv/em@th's model accounts for those sorts of things, but I do think the Flyers have a better shot than the markets seem to suggest.

Don't quote me on this, but I believe the nerds have come to the consensus that SACF% last 25 games is the best predictor of postseason success that we have going. That's why the Flyers are rated so high. There's not a 20% discrepancy between the markets and reality, but there's definitely a discrepancy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorMuresano
The model is based on a massive over reliance on super recent play it seems. It'll swing like 15 points seemingly over night. Philly has been playing well of late, but the Caps seem to have righted the ship as far as process goes, and that's even with them sitting guys and rolling all four lines to keep guys fresh. I know they're the Caps so they'll make **** hard regardless of what happens, but the Flyers are a one line team if they keep voracek, giroux, and Simmons together. This shouldn't be a series, it shouldn't be 50/50 (or +350 for that matter). Caps in 6.
The Flyers aren't a one line team. Couturier can shut down any line he faces, and checking some $tats, he's held Ovechkin to a 43% Corsi in ~90 minutes against since 2013. Obviously the sample is lol, but he continually does it to the rest of the league year in and year out, so the point remains.

The Flyers have really bought in to Hackstol's system and arrived a year early, but the problem is going to be guys like Schultz and MacDonald getting exposed to the Caps' first two lines. VandeVelde-White-Bellemare is also a terrible line, so if those guys get caught between a change, they have no chance. Read-Cousins-Gagner has proven to be an effective third line, and I'm interested to see how they can match up against the Caps' bottom six. I think the Caps are definitely the favorites - the Flyers' black holes are a bigger detriment to the team, but I think it's going to be a series.
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04-13-2016 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwicemvp12
The Caps are interesting to me, but I haven't looked very deep into them. Perhaps Muresan or sylar can tell me if the following thoughts are right or wrong.

What I can tell you is that they got off to a great start, but their adjusted Corsi started taking a dive around games 20-30. Since then they've been in the middle of the pack, but they shot the lights out and Holtby had an amazing year, so it didn't matter much. They have an elite PP and have for a long time, so all of that combined is going to offset their mediocre possession stats. They also played without noted anchor Brooks Orpik for a lot of the season.

I don't think In/effec.tiv/em@th's model accounts for those sorts of things, but I do think the Flyers have a better shot than the markets seem to suggest.

Don't quote me on this, but I believe the nerds have come to the consensus that SACF% last 25 games is the best predictor of postseason success that we have going. That's why the Flyers are rated so high. There's not a 20% discrepancy between the markets and reality, but there's definitely a discrepancy.



The Flyers aren't a one line team. Couturier can shut down any line he faces, and checking some $tats, he's held Ovechkin to a 43% Corsi in ~90 minutes against since 2013. Obviously the sample is lol, but he continually does it to the rest of the league year in and year out, so the point remains.

The Flyers have really bought in to Hackstol's system and arrived a year early, but the problem is going to be guys like Schultz and MacDonald getting exposed to the Caps' first two lines. VandeVelde-White-Bellemare is also a terrible line, so if those guys get caught between a change, they have no chance. Read-Cousins-Gagner has proven to be an effective third line, and I'm interested to see how they can match up against the Caps' bottom six. I think the Caps are definitely the favorites - the Flyers' black holes are a bigger detriment to the team, but I think it's going to be a series.

When people say "one-line team", they usually mean a one offensive line team. Couturier is a great shut down guy, but can he generate offense? Using your 2nd line to play Ovechkin to a draw seems like a losing strategy. The Caps have some depth. As far as the recent 25 game sample size, you're right, as visualized here:



Their possession numbers did plummet in late February. Injuries? Not giving a ****/distributing minutes because there was nothing left to play for? You be the judge, but the last 10 game trend has been very positive. They waffle-crushed the Blues, and played the Ducks even without Backstrom and Ovechkin. YMMV but I think they're trending in the right direction, and their recent play is indicative of them actually ramping it up. Their SACF% over the last 10 games is 2nd in the league at 56.8% (Philly is at 53.8%). I do agree that I think it will be a series, but I find the Caps naysayers are putting an awful lot of weight into possession numbers from a meaningless lull in the season. I guess we'll find out.
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04-13-2016 , 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geddy Lee
In for the playoffs.

5-star OP, Mr. SYF - Brad Wall would be proud.

Go Stars Go! #Russell
Thanks Geddy, as always, the thread welcomes your presence.

Plenty of room on your favorite second team's bandwagon (Red Wings)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
I always sit in the cheap seats (except first ever Preds home game, my kid's 10th b-day, where I splashed out for seats on the glass). Have decided to get some nice seats this year, but can't afford 1st two rows.

So, which would be best tickets of these:


1) 3rd row in corner
2) 3rd row in end
3) Further up on side, lower bowl
4) Front row of club level


Thanks
As someone who's been to Bridgestone Arena, I would say #3 is a good option but 4 would definitely be the best. They are club level for a reason and are fantastic seats. However, when I was in Nashville I did option #3 and they were very good seats. Don't do #1 or #2, view is too obstructed by boards/glass/players.
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04-13-2016 , 10:30 AM
Also-






May be some truth to the "well yea they (Flyers) get shots on net, but they're from the outside". Caps do a good job of shot suppression, even though they allow slightly above average from the high-slot danger area.
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04-13-2016 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorMuresano
When people say "one-line team", they usually mean a one offensive line team. Couturier is a great shut down guy, but can he generate offense? Using your 2nd line to play Ovechkin to a draw seems like a losing strategy. The Caps have some depth.
Fair point. I think Couturier is probably an average point producer at ES. He did take a step forward this year, but some quick glancing seems to suggest that it was merely percentage driven. I guess this is what I meant when I said the Caps still had the edge because of their scoring talent.

Quote:
As far as the recent 25 game sample size, you're right, as visualized here:



Their possession numbers did plummet in late February. Injuries? Not giving a ****/distributing minutes because there was nothing left to play for? You be the judge, but the last 10 game trend has been very positive. They waffle-crushed the Blues, and played the Ducks even without Backstrom and Ovechkin. YMMV but I think they're trending in the right direction, and their recent play is indicative of them actually ramping it up. Their SACF% over the last 10 games is 2nd in the league at 56.8% (Philly is at 53.8%). I do agree that I think it will be a series, but I find the Caps naysayers are putting an awful lot of weight into possession numbers from a meaningless lull in the season. I guess we'll find out.
I don't think the Caps are a sub-50% team by any means, just making the point that other than early on, they're not at the level you'd expect from a truly elite team. Their scoring talent and Holtby made up for the gap. It's a dangerous cocktail when that's what you rely on for success, especially in a short sample.
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04-13-2016 , 10:53 AM
Agreed that Flyers/Caps will be closer than the market suggests but think that Washington will win pretty handily if both teams bring their "A" games.

Think Washington is just way too good offensively. As has already been pointed out, even if they are not the greatest possession team, with the weapons they have, they don't need a ton of "high-danger" opportunities to score and can score on lower percentage opportunites due to being better shooters.
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04-13-2016 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwicemvp12
I don't think the Caps are a sub-50% team by any means, just making the point that other than early on, they're not at the level you'd expect from a truly elite team. Their scoring talent and Holtby made up for the gap. It's a dangerous cocktail when that's what you rely on for success, especially in a short sample.
I think we're on the same page here. They're not a 56% SACF juggernaut, but do they need to be? Elite special teams on both sides, great goaltending and, anecdotal I know, they do seem to overpass/pass up shots in favor of trying to set up better opportunities. It can be maddening, but Kuznetsov does it all the time. Would their possession numbers be slightly better if Kuzentsov, Burakovsky, Oshie, Backstrom were chuckers? I dont know, but clearly from the charts I showed above they get a significantly above average percentage of shots in the high-slot danger area, while doing a great job of limiting the high-danger SOG. That's not even when considering true shooting talent and all that jazz. Here are LA and Pit for comparison:





Those charts are cool
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04-13-2016 , 11:08 AM
War on ice continues to amaze me how awesome that site is at being able to create different types of charts.

Having said that, I agree with pretty much everything Murs is saying about the Caps.
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04-13-2016 , 11:16 AM
I wish they were playing the way they did in February rather than March and April but ...

LET'S GO BLACKHAWKS!!!!!!!!
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04-13-2016 , 11:24 AM
Is there just one thread for NHL playoffs this year? General discussion thread?
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