Quote:
Originally Posted by MediocrePlayer2.0
what do people think of this guys model?
He has Philly / Wash as a 50/50 series yet you can find Phily +350 so I mean that's a YOOOOGE discrepancy.
Would like someone to discredit his model before I go back up the truck on the Flyers
The Caps are interesting to me, but I haven't looked very deep into them. Perhaps Muresan or sylar can tell me if the following thoughts are right or wrong.
What I can tell you is that they got off to a great start, but their adjusted Corsi started taking a dive around games 20-30. Since then they've been in the middle of the pack, but they shot the lights out and Holtby had an amazing year, so it didn't matter much. They have an elite PP and have for a long time, so all of that combined is going to offset their mediocre possession stats. They also played without noted anchor Brooks Orpik for a lot of the season.
I don't think In/effec.tiv/em@th's model accounts for those sorts of things, but I do think the Flyers have a better shot than the markets seem to suggest.
Don't quote me on this, but I believe the nerds have come to the consensus that SACF% last 25 games is the best predictor of postseason success that we have going. That's why the Flyers are rated so high. There's not a 20% discrepancy between the markets and reality, but there's definitely a discrepancy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorMuresano
The model is based on a massive over reliance on super recent play it seems. It'll swing like 15 points seemingly over night. Philly has been playing well of late, but the Caps seem to have righted the ship as far as process goes, and that's even with them sitting guys and rolling all four lines to keep guys fresh. I know they're the Caps so they'll make **** hard regardless of what happens, but the Flyers are a one line team if they keep voracek, giroux, and Simmons together. This shouldn't be a series, it shouldn't be 50/50 (or +350 for that matter). Caps in 6.
The Flyers aren't a one line team. Couturier can shut down any line he faces, and checking some $tats, he's held Ovechkin to a 43% Corsi in ~90 minutes against since 2013. Obviously the sample is lol, but he continually does it to the rest of the league year in and year out, so the point remains.
The Flyers have really bought in to Hackstol's system and arrived a year early, but the problem is going to be guys like Schultz and MacDonald getting exposed to the Caps' first two lines. VandeVelde-White-Bellemare is also a terrible line, so if those guys get caught between a change, they have no chance. Read-Cousins-Gagner has proven to be an effective third line, and I'm interested to see how they can match up against the Caps' bottom six. I think the Caps are definitely the favorites - the Flyers' black holes are a bigger detriment to the team, but I think it's going to be a series.