are they even making the playoffs? Carolina and Montreal are both better

Do we think Duchene even re-signs there?

not a chance

This isn't even remotely true. The cost is only prohibitively expensive if you offer the player more than $10.2 shmill, and even then, a guy like Matthews is probably worth the four 1st rounders?

think they'll def make a good offer after Panarin & Bob go to Florida


but he'll probably get similar or better offers from better teams/situations, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

exactly. any max player sub 24 has to be worth four 1sts especially considering the team offering is probably good.

fact is GMs are bitches and afraid to ruffle feathers.

It absolutely is true. There is an AAV inflator on offer sheet deals so that they calculate the cap hit for purposes of compensation differently. It pays the player the total compensation divided by the “lesser number of the years of the offer sheet or five years.”

For example, under this system a 6 year contract at 54 million would still be a max compensation hit of 4 first round picks because it would count as 10.8 AAV.

Because of this it is impossible to make any kind of reasonable offer and get under max compensation for a good player.

You can make a reasonable AAV offer and the team will obviously just match it and laugh at you. You can wildly overpay the player AND pay 4 first round picks, or you can try and sign them to a really short term deal that overpays them but is shorter than 5 years so you don't get clobbered for 4 firsts but the player would never sign that because they want long term deals.

There is no combination of decent player plus contract they will accept plus current team not instant matching plus value for the team offering under this system. There is a reason we haven't seen one in 6 years, it is because the system is a joke. It is never happening on anyone remotely good.

the Leafs can't match Marner at max years/$. they want him paid less than Matthews but he might be better. someone might do it.

How many players would you trade 4 1st round picks (unprotected) for? (and you get the player for 7 years, $77M or their current contract, whichever is higher)

any players in the league? 10-20 probably

players that actually hit RFA in the next couple seasons? right now 1-5

if Dahlin hits RFA market because Buffalo is lolcheap he will get offer sheeted, book it

It was a thought exercise, so I was thinking anyone.
How many teams are 1 player from being contenders for a long time? Because with 4 1sts gone, the draft is done for awhile.

Generational players (Centers and D only) under age 24. Pick the wrong guy, and you are Chiapet.

Yeah I mean, I get it. The true guys you know are worth it will always get matched so there's no slam dunks. You have to trust your own talent evaluation and hope the other team undervalues someone or the other team is incredibly cheap/up against it. It's why I used Marner; the leafs don't think he's worth more than Matthews, but maybe he is? If Laine doesn't figure it out he could be a candidate from someone like Arizona that says F it let's take the risk?

I do believe a four 1st/max offer sheet will be offered soon and it will be a small market that needs a huge splash and can't keep repeating the same cycle of draft/develop/lose guys after 5 years.

Jeff Skinner with a gross looking ankle injury

ppl fearing the worst, but think it could just be a bad high-ankle sprain or something

anyway, it obv sucks given he'll be ufa in a few months
(and apparently there's some rule that prevented him from signing an extension with Buff to this point?)


even if it's broken he should be ~ok, and still get ~paid, but it could cost him a little money

and ofc it's such a Buffalo thing to happen overall

he just came back out for the 3rd lol

re: rfa offer sheets

think there are very few situations where it actually makes sense

teams will almost always match, even when they shouldn't

and now agents seem smart enough to use that as leverage against you
(like, signing your own rfas will become tougher, agents will play hardball and go hunting for the revenge sheet)


oh, lol

guess i was correct in saying that it didn't look that bad

What about guys like Kapanen and Johnson? Heard some talk about them as offer sheet targets. If they try to low-ball them of only offer short bridges with low cap hit.

$4,059,323 - $6,088,980
1 First Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

I could see Kapanen getting that as an offer sheet. Would/Can the Leafs match that? Probably shouldn't.

yeah i think it makes more sense for lower profile rfas where you're betting big on their upside

but it requires a powerful confluence of conditions
(e.g. lack of cap space and/or real dollars in the budget)


the classic example i cited before was Philly going after Kesler
he was a 1st round pick, but hadn't really done anything
but his upside was obv what he became, a good 2C
the Canucks were legit capped out
the comp was only a 2nd round pick
a lot of ppl here wanted the Canucks to take it
forget who, but they had to dump a roster player just to match and fit him in


then there was the Vanek one, where Buffalo matched instead of taking like four 1st round picks from the LOiLers lololol, tough beat that they got railroaded into that

It would be much better for a team to offer sheet Kyle Connor than Laine imo.

Wow did not remember that Vanek offer sheet. Do remember buffalo scoring for fun and that Vanek-Drury-Briere line.

lets go PANTHERS

The building looks empty.

The arena in Florida is always empty. Anytime I watch a game on TV it feels like I’m watching some ECHL game in the arena of a soon to be defunct team. It’s shameful.

9 out of 10 pts on the road trip, 13 straight with a point

completely pulled away for home ice

yum yum

TAHMMY