If it weren't for the compensation.
No player is worth all those 1st round picks unless a team can guarantee they won't be in the lottery. The union needs to re-negotiate compensation down.

O/U Panarin contract: 7.5 years, 11.5 million per

The correct play is to offer sheet Marner for exactly:

$10,568,589

compensation is then two 1sts, 2nd, 3rd. Leafs would have to grit their teeth and match I suspect, leaving them with almost 50% of their cap on four players.

over years, under dollars

8 years, $8X million

Leafs won't match a 10.5+ otherwise they would have just signed him by now because that's what he wants minimum. Rags, Habs, Florida?, others should absolutely offer the 10.5 to Marner.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...yKviWLN54/edit

Their projections are Panarin 8/91 and Marner 8/78 however (but they missed on the Karlsson overpay)

Panarin can only get 8 years from Columbus.

Rangers don't have space for Marner or Panarin sorry to burst the bubble. They might barely if they trade Kreider for futures.

The offer sheet formula uses an inflator on the salary. I don't remember exactly how it works but the result is that any big salary player, ie. anything over 8 million or so a year, is inflated so that it will ALWAYS be 4 firsts for compensation. This is one of the reasons why there hasn't been an offer sheet in 6 years. There is no possible offer sheet for Marner that wouldn't result in either him refusing it because it was too low, being about market value and Leafs insta matching it, or grossly overpaying him AND losing 4 firsts.

I think the Leafs would insta match anything up to 11.5.

if the Leafs are willing to match why do they refuse to pay Marner when he's demanding 10.5?

Leafs should absolutely let him walk, use the cap space on actual needs and take the picks but Dubas has been playing to sentimental stuff since day 1 so who knows

Let Marner walk for 10.5+ offer sheet, figure out how to pry Doughty or Subban would be the best possible move for Toronto

I forgot the 8 is for the team you're on. They can sign and trade which is still an actual thing in the NHL though. S and T makes a ton of sense if sides aren't stubborn.

the game is the game

most of the NHL thinks they'll move on from Nylander when the time comes. He's the least of the 4.

for contracts longer than 5 years the compensation or cap hit (I don't remember which) is calculated dividing by 5 not the actual number of years.

so 10.5M for 7 years is calculated as 80.5M/5 = 16.1M

Karlsson is NOWHERE NEAR a top 3 player in the league. LOL @ 8 years @ that rate.

lolololol

NHL GMs can't help themselves. Marner should be asking for eleventy billion.

I will cry if Subban goes to laffs

Why do you think the Leafs are refusing to pay him 10.5? I haven't heard anything that hints at that and it would make no sense. His numbers are basically identical to Matthews'. I think the Leafs know damn well they are going to end up paying him the same as Matthews or that someone else will. If I'm Marner there is no chance in hell I'm taking anything less than Matthews with the numbers he has put up.

This is a horrific rule that I wasn't aware of. So, team must offer 5x10.5 instead of 7x10.5.

Offer Sheet value is determined by taking the total value (salary, and signing/reporting bonuses), and dividing it by either the number of seasons the offer is for or five - whichever is lower

As for all the people ITT saying "leafs won't match because if they're willing to pay 10.5, they'd just do it" - they may end up doing it. There's no urgency right at this exact moment to pay the top of their range, and there won't be until Dec 15. They can sit at the moment and hope Marner comes down on his ask.

I don't think he will.

C'mon Lou, one time. You've got the cap space, you've got the picks, and you've got the personal animosity. He'd be a goddamn hero in Long island if he sniped away Marner from the Leafs.

Marner is a winger whose point output jumped 36% year on year when he was paired with future HOF'er John Tavares (over 1000 minutes together last year). His goal to assist ratio was 1-2.6, meaning he functioned as a setup man.

Matthews is a center whose production has remained constant regardless of who he plays with (his most common centreman was the decrepit corpse formerly known as Patrick Marleau). His goal to assist ratio is 1.18-1 - he's a scorer.

There's a very fair question regarding whether Marner is an exceptional complementary player to elite players, or is an elite player himself who can drive play. He's the Leon Draisaitl of this year. This article lays it all out pretty clearly:

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/l...-mitch-marner/

Kevin Hayes got like 8MM AAV. I know, as an UFA, but the Draisaitl deal is way way back on the list of Oilers problems.

Great article, thank you. It does make a compelling case that Marner is not worth 11.5 (although he is obviously still an elite player who is worth a lot). Logical as it is though if the Leafs don't pay him that someone else will. I think the Leafs will still end up having to overpay to keep him and I think they know that. Still, it does explain why they might be willing to wait as long as possible to do it.

Corey Perry bought out

also, I had no idea the awards show was last night

Trotz winning the Jack Adams and the steamed ham trophies



















Literally no one on the Rangers got a single vote for anything

Meanwhile, Draisaitl receives votes at all three forward positions. GJGE hockey writers.

A Kangz got half a third place vote for Norris

He's that good.

does anyone but German fans actually think Draisaitl is elite lol