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Originally Posted by five4suited
I find it fascinating that so many sports fans advocate for harsh player evaluations when most employees are TERRIFIED at the prospect of modest accountability. The average 2p2er might be an exception but I'm sure some of the armchair GMs on here shirk responsibility like madmen in their personal lives.
Speaking for myself, I will immodestly agree that I am not in the top 0.001% of my field making a 7 figure salary. If I was, I would fully expect to be held accountable.
re: Dundon - part of me does agree that much of the league has started to realize the dangers of certain types of roster decisions - for example, you don't see as many horrific UFA contracts any more. However, you still do see a lot of middling to severe mistakes. However, you do see Subban for Weber trades, contract buyouts, and the entirety of Peter Chiarelli all of which you could avoid with some sort of model.
When you look around and see substantial numbers of indefensibly bad trades and signings being made, there's certainly a case to ask "how can we identify and exploit those inefficiences, while avoiding introducing them ourselves?".
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having some rigid system seems bad
why even employ ppl then? just legit design a model to make decisions for you
The way it was explained by Friedman is that Dundon wants to follow the Eagles plan. In any given situation, there are red/yellow/green lights, and he gave an example such as this:
You are 4th and 20 from your own 10 in a tie game. Thats a big red light to go for it.
You are 4th and 7 from midfield in a tie game. That's a yellow light where maybe you should or shouldn't go for it.
You are 4th and 1 from the midfield in a tie game. That's a green light to go for it.
Now imagine that from roster construction where you're developing your UFA signing model (as a very basic example):
UFA is >30, has declined in production for the last 2 years, had PDO >100 last year, and wants a 7 year contract: that's a red light.
UFA is >27, has had consistent production for the last 2 years, and wants a 7 year contract: that's a yellow light.
UFA is <26, has had consistent or improving production the last 2 years, and wants a 5 year contract: that's a green light.
The job of the GM is to figure out what factors to put in that model BEFORE ever considering an actual player. This takes all of the personal bias out of it. Once you have your model, the decision making primarily revolves around the yellow light areas, and tweaking your model as to where the red/yellow/green trigger points should be.