First, rather than a poll, let's bracket it up:
https://bracketchallenge.nhl.com/lea...wt-taek-league
Password: malmuth
Current odds along with my thoughts on the top half of the field:
Predators +400 - the trendy pick, but seeing a team with no one over 65 points in the regular season gives me reason to pause. It's hard to find this as a model for a Stanley Cup winner any time recently. Looks like the 2012 Bruins are the last one, so I guess Rinne better be ready to carry the load.
Bruins +550 - probably the right pick. Multiple elite scorers, mixture of youth and veterans on the back end, solid goaltending. Can't even claim to have been particularly lucky, with many injuries and PDO of 100.2. If I had to bet my life on one team, this might be where the money should go.
Lightning +600 - My main contender for a first round upset. Goaltending has really fallen off in the last part of the season (sub.900 sv% since Feb 1), and mediocre special teams. These are two areas that generally a strength of cup winning teams.
Golden Knights +650 - it's really hard to get over this idea that at some point this team is going to wake up and turn into a pumpkin. They just seem to do a lot of things well and no real specific weakness. I'm going to gamble that at least one of Karlsson and Marchessault fall on their faces in their first featured playoff roles, and another first round upset.
Penguins +900 - just get in, I guess. I'm not a big believer in Murray right now as he's also sub .900 since his return from injury. I can see them beating the Flyers, but then facing Ovi's fury in the second round and finally getting a decent offseason.
Jets +900 - good special teams, good defense, elite offensive players, and a question mark in net. Is Hellyebuck really a .924 goalie? Probably the best value of any of these bets in my opinion.
Maple Leafs +1200 - I like teams with good special teams. I'm not sure I trust a team with outstanding special teams to carry it through. The matchup of the #3 PK in Boston vs the #2 PP in Toronto might decide this series.
Capitals +1400 - did I say the Jets are the best value? I'm actually picking the Capitals to break through and take the whole thing. The real question will be in net - Grubauer has been a significantly better option than Holtby this year. Could they (or should they) really bench Braden?
Others:
Kings +2200
Sharks +2200
Ducks +2500
Wild +2500
Blue Jackets +2500
Avalanche +4000
Flyers +4000
Devils +4000