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Old Today, 05:10 PM   #2876
stinkubus
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Mariota isn't all that accurate and he turns the ball over a ton. Are Titans games on the list of those you don't actually watch?
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Old Today, 05:14 PM   #2877
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by JMurder3 View Post
I think the most important takeaway from the Caldwell thing is that he's not prepared enough to have a non-embarrassing answer to that question, & not smart enough to think of one on the spot.
Whoever asked the softball question instead of literally anything regarding football should be fired for not asking a real question is the real takeaway. Seems ridic to criticize for not having prepared vs answer all stupid questions in advance or not being a cold liar.
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Old Today, 05:15 PM   #2878
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by stinkubus View Post
Mariota isn't all that accurate and he turns the ball over a ton. Are Titans games on the list of those you don't actually watch?
Mariota threw the second fewest interceptable passes in the league last year, so you should prob gtfo my dude.

http://presnapreads.com/2017/07/12/t...r-quarterback/
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Old Today, 05:16 PM   #2879
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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My point has been that Cousins is worse than people think based on how inaccurate his throws are and how good his supporting cast is and forgiving the offensive system is. /shrug
Co-signing this though he doesn't have DeSean Jackson now. He's very frustrating to watch for me (in fact I try not to watch was games cause of him), I still reckon opinions on him would change the most out of every QB in the league if we got SKYCAM or all-22 instead of regular footage.
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Old Today, 05:30 PM   #2880
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

That link you provided doesn't even give a definition of "interceptable pass" nor does it disclose who did the charting (I may have missed these, needs to read quickly)?
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Old Today, 05:52 PM   #2881
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by MonsterJMcgee View Post
Watching games + advanced stats > only watching games > only looking at advanced stats.

I don't think you need to perform a comprehensive analysis of every QB in the league to make a rough estimation of who is good and who isn't. There will obv be errors and blind spots, but I don't think it takes long at all to see that ~Mariota is more physically talented than Cousins. Replace Mariota with Cam or Wentz or whoever you want. Carr is also super overrated imo for the same reasons Kirk is.

I also think you're way underrating Washington's supporting cast over the last few years. When the oline is healthy they're a top five unit pretty safely, and I believe PFF ranked them as #3 last year for what that's worth. Also, Djax/Garcon/Reed/Vernon Davis/Thompson/Crowder is an elite group of receivers. Cousins has played a large chunk of his games with an absolutely elite supporting cast.

tl;dr my main point here is a QB's ability to put the ball in a certain spot is 1000000x more relevant than any advanced stat unless there's a stat that is actually good at showing that.
I don't think you know what elite means because that supporting cast is not elite.
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Old Today, 05:52 PM   #2882
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
basically, Monster and Nath, I completely agree that ANY/A is not end all be all. if you want to make adjustments to it based on context, I think that's correct and I agree with that approach. however I think you need to be careful / thoughtful about that, bc when you just say he's "inaccurate" I think that's pretty meaningless and there is a good chance you hurt, rather than help, your rankings that way
"Inaccurate" in Cousins' case means "frequently has poor ball placement, especially on longer throws, because he doesn't have the arm strength to drive the ball." In 2015-16, when Cousins' completion percentage was so high, a substantial number of his throws traveled < 10 yards in the air.

Someone like Newton, on the other hand, is consistently asked to go deep, and when he misses, it looks worse than it really is because he throws so hard and fast (so a badly placed ball gets to its spot sooner than it would if thrown by someone else, and thus gives the receiver less time to adjust to it).

And as Mcgee pointed out, Cousins' receivers frequently bailed him out, while Newton's receivers frequently cost him completions.

You don't have to take everything Cian Fahey writes as gospel, but at the very least he does watch every snap and chart plays. Here, again, are his preseason rankings for 2017. Look at his Kirk Cousins writeup, where by his evaluation Cousins is average at throws under 5 yards and near the bottom of the league almost everywhere else. Then compare to Cam Newton, whose accuracy toward all parts of the field is impressive (except, ironically, throws under 5 yards), and who also played through a shoulder injury that dampened his performance.

Another interesting look is these charts, where in the first one he tries to devise something like true shooting percentage for QBs, giving more credit the further downfield a throw is, and in the second one, charting "accurate passes", which includes accurate passes that were dropped by the receiver, and doesn't include completions that were placed poorly and the receiver had to bail out the QB on.

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Old Today, 06:30 PM   #2883
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Thanks Nath. I may be misinterpreting but do those charts not jive with the idea that Cousins isn't accurate? He looks average in one and good in the other?
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Old Today, 06:33 PM   #2884
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Yeah the first one he looks pretty good, but again, that doesn't account for receiver adjustment (without having Fahey's guide handy, I'd guess Cousins did pretty well in "inaccurate passes bailed out by receivers"). Meanwhile Newton lost over 800 yards passing to receiver error last year by Fahey's account.

I don't think Cousins is bad, but I've started to think of QBs in a 5-tier system, and he's solidly tier 3.

1. The franchise
2. Can win because of
3. Can win with
4. Can win in spite of
5. Can't win
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Old Today, 06:44 PM   #2885
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

So does that second list have Cam as the most accurate passer?
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Old Today, 06:46 PM   #2886
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Yes, in terms of highest percentage of balls placed accurately. (I don't think it's adjusted for distance, but it might be, because I know he throws downfield to a huge degree, about 1/3 more than the average QB.)
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Old Today, 06:48 PM   #2887
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

unfortunately, QB/receiver who's at fault is *highly* subjective, and fahey's been correctly clowned on by ex-NFL'ers. That said, few are actually trying so ?

It's hard, sacks too, who's fault was it? The OL standing there or maybe he had a different assignment and someone else ****ed up? People mad at a QB who missed open man that wasn't a read in his assignment. I remember a SI article asking a 3 different experienced coaches to describe a defensive play because he wasn't sure what it was and each one came back with a completely different coverage (yes, they didn't agree on say cover 2).

tl'dr it's really hard even for professionals to determine some of this stuff which makes it fun to debate and annoying at the same time because I can't point to a meaningful stat to help the case of say "QB A kinda sucks but you all think he's great".

Many teams give out internal grades and that week knowing those would be helpful just from having much clearer vision on player assignments.

Or maybe it's just my hatred of bars from whenever a guy is playing zone and lets a guy run out of his zone they don't ****ing get it and yell at him.
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Old Today, 06:49 PM   #2888
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

https://www.reddit.com/r/DanLeBatard...on_cian_fahey/

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Cian watches tape, and he's damn smart at what to to look for. But, I think it's in everyone's best interest to know--everything Cian is viewing on film is predisposed to his own opinion, unlike Pro Football Focus for the most part.

For instance, Cian was brutally critical of Derek Carr and Carson Wentz on Wednesday, and Jameis in weeks before that. It should behoove everyone to know, he was one of the most outspoken anti-Carr guys before the 2014 draft, go look it up. Criticized his accuracy, his college offense being all screens, and his inability to handle pressure. Was also Mariota over Jameis, and Goff over Wentz. So, essentially, he hasn't changed his opinion on any of these QBs since they entered the league. Mostly because he watches tape with confirmation bias in mind. I just find it absurd that with 3 years in the bank in some cases, your evaluations haven't changed an ounce, that's poor scouting, and it's disingenuous scouting.
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Old Today, 06:52 PM   #2889
wheatrich
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by nath View Post
I don't think Cousins is bad, but I've started to think of QBs in a 5-tier system, and he's solidly tier 3.

1. The franchise
2. Can win because of
3. Can win with
4. Can win in spite of
5. Can't win
heh this tiering system isn't bad, I guess the most shocking thing about it is Alex Smith is tier 2 this season.

If we're talking about confirmation bias in scouting, not even close to the NFL's level of it. lol'd hard at "unlike PFF"
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Old Today, 06:55 PM   #2890
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

For the record I don't believe ANY/A is the be all and end all of QB stats, which is why in the past when defending Cousins I've included comp %, TD/INT, QBR, DVOA, DYAR etc. Pretty much every quantifiable stat says Cousins is a good QB. You can eyetest certain games and he makes some bad throws but over a pretty significant sample at this point he's worth the long term deal and is better than 'mediocre'. Garoppolo looks good but has started four games.

By the way for continual 'throw to Thompson for 75 yard screen' talk - he had the most air yards and air yards per attempt last year. Definitely fallen off this year but still matches Scam and Carr, and ahead of Keenum, Brees and Godgers.

And no, I don't think he's as good as Brees. I don't think he's top five. But if he's mediocre then there are probably five good QBs in the league.

I read Fahey's stuff but his Twitter game is so pathetic. He blocks anyone who disagrees with him and whines about how Wentz isn't actually that good pretty much every week.

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everything Cian is viewing on film is predisposed to his own opinion
Pretty much perfect description of him
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Old Today, 07:09 PM   #2891
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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unfortunately, QB/receiver who's at fault is *highly* subjective, and fahey's been correctly clowned on by ex-NFL'ers. That said, few are actually trying so ?
Right, like I said, I don't take him as the be-all end-all, but the mere fact that he's at least trying and does watch every snap makes this a good starting point for discussion.

I do think with someone like i.e. Watson Fahey doesn't think about how he puts an unconventional skill set together well and just focuses on what he does wrong. How a player integrates his skills is just as important as which skills he has. (As is stuff like, I dunno, actually performing at a high level in college for multiple years against the best competition.) Something like Wentz though, he and others were right about Wentz's stone feet and how they often led to a poor throwing base, but presumably (I haven't studied Wentz's film this season) he's either corrected that or is succeeding in spit of it.

Started working on a tier breakdown but ran out of time.

Last edited by nath; Today at 07:15 PM.
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Old Today, 07:15 PM   #2892
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

ya Scam certainly doesn't eyetest as most accurate

when i think of him, i picture a ball ripped a little too high (or way too high), that is possibly catchable, but definitely difficult, especially for the poor group he has to work with, outside of say Olsen

but quite possible that's an incorrect or outdated take


too lazy to google, but do any of these QB stats incorporate rushing yards into their value calculations? kinda seems like an important part of the equation, considering guys like Scam & Ru$tle, for example
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Old Today, 07:18 PM   #2893
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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ya Scam certainly doesn't eyetest as most accurate

when i think of him, i picture a ball ripped a little too high (or way too high), that is possibly catchable, but definitely difficult, especially for the poor group he has to work with, outside of say Olsen
I think this is what I said about the velocity with which he throws; a slower ball that misses by the same distance will appear more catchable because it looks more like the QB gave the receiver a chance to get there.

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too lazy to google, but do any of these QB stats incorporate rushing yards into their value calculations? kinda seems like an important part of the equation, considering guys like Scam & Ru$tle, for example
The ones I posted are all passing stats. Obviously Russell's (and especially Cam's) running adds significant value.
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Old Today, 07:23 PM   #2894
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Lmk when you have an argument for this beyond his box score stats
You want advanced metrics showing that mcvay is an offensive genius?

His scheme is great and produces big #s.
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Old Today, 07:29 PM   #2895
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Congrats to Derek Carr for getting paid BANK and then being incredibly average.

Want Cousins to leave the NFC East but if he stays hopefully becomes the richest QB in football. Take dem cap $s.
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Old Today, 07:30 PM   #2896
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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"Inaccurate" in Cousins' case means "frequently has poor ball placement, especially on longer throws, because he doesn't have the arm strength to drive the ball." In 2015-16, when Cousins' completion percentage was so high, a substantial number of his throws traveled < 10 yards in the air.

Someone like Newton, on the other hand, is consistently asked to go deep, and when he misses, it looks worse than it really is because he throws so hard and fast (so a badly placed ball gets to its spot sooner than it would if thrown by someone else, and thus gives the receiver less time to adjust to it).

And as Mcgee pointed out, Cousins' receivers frequently bailed him out, while Newton's receivers frequently cost him completions.

You don't have to take everything Cian Fahey writes as gospel, but at the very least he does watch every snap and chart plays. Here, again, are his preseason rankings for 2017. Look at his Kirk Cousins writeup, where by his evaluation Cousins is average at throws under 5 yards and near the bottom of the league almost everywhere else. Then compare to Cam Newton, whose accuracy toward all parts of the field is impressive (except, ironically, throws under 5 yards), and who also played through a shoulder injury that dampened his performance.

Another interesting look is these charts, where in the first one he tries to devise something like true shooting percentage for QBs, giving more credit the further downfield a throw is, and in the second one, charting "accurate passes", which includes accurate passes that were dropped by the receiver, and doesn't include completions that were placed poorly and the receiver had to bail out the QB on.

Hey, great post. It's crazy that you can take assertions you see with your eyes and quantify them. This conversation happens every year in the NBA thread, idiots come in and are like "you nerds and your stats yadda yadda, you gotta watch da games" and it's like a) the guys who take the time to study advanced stats probably watch more games than you do and b) there are so few people who actually believe one stat can be all encompassing. Especially in football. Football is such a complex game with so many moving pieces that everything has to be viewed contextually. But still, it's much better to use stats as a place to start and deviate from based on said context than to ignore them all together in favor of da eyetest.

WRT Mariota, Mularkey is, no exaggeration, the worst coach in the NFL. Their schemes are outdated and not suited to his ability. It's unfortunate because his progress is being held out due to the Titans prematurely winning games. Had Mariota performed worse earlier Mularkey rightfully would have been ****canned.
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Old Today, 07:49 PM   #2897
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

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Originally Posted by GeoffRas22 View Post
This conversation happens every year in the NBA thread, idiots come in and are like "you nerds and your stats yadda yadda, you gotta watch da games" and it's like a) the guys who take the time to study advanced stats probably watch more games than you do and b) there are so few people who actually believe one stat can be all encompassing. Especially in football. Football is such a complex game with so many moving pieces that everything has to be viewed contextually. But still, it's much better to use stats as a place to start and deviate from based on said context than to ignore them all together in favor of da eyetest.

.
Don’t think that conversation happened itt
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Old Today, 07:51 PM   #2898
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

Mariota is def a confusing case atm--he hasn't been good but man does that base offense not suit his skillset. They do throw in stuff on occasion specifically for him but then the next play it's straight back to system play. It's the NFL, so he may never end up in one that does simply because lots of coaches run systems.
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Old Today, 08:05 PM   #2899
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Re: NFL Regular Season 2017

It does kill me as a football fan that Mariota is so good that it might be stunting his chance to become great.

Here's a thought I had on Kaepernick: The Eagles are 11-2. They have three games left and are still very likely to get a bye week unless Nick Foles is a human disaster. That's four weeks, if you signed Kaepernick today, to get him up to speed on the offense, install a few new plays for him (most teams only run a relatively small number of plays anyway, just from varying formations, and I'm sure the Eagles have run some RPO with Wentz) and, at worst, have a backup who's been to the Super Bowl before, is still in his prime, and isn't Nate ****ing Sudfeld? Because going from Wentz to Foley might not kill the Eagles' Super Bowl chances, but going from Foles to Sudfeld almost certainly would. And if Foles gets injured or is ineffective, at least you have a Hail Mary play.
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