Right now the NFC playoffs would be Eagles/Rams/Vikings/Panthers and two of Skins/Seahawks/Saints (excluding Packers). Obviously it's early and teams will be different next year but if you think the 49ers with Rodgers can't contend with these teams I don't know what to tell you

N.O. #1 on inpredictable :-/

good lord this

yes, a team good enough to make the playoffs is a contender. except cincinnati every season. SF or CLE with rodgers are top ten teams

I am guessing Rodgers will be 50/50 to make it through any future season without another serious injury. Even with that assumption I think there's no more than 5 teams which shouldn't snap make the trade.

NO outdoors on turf, away from home as 6 point favourites is not a great bet

This is the definition of a contender in the NFL. It's a single elimination playoff, Aaron Rodgers won the SB as a 6 seed. The Giants have won 2 SB's playing multiple games in each postseason as big dogs, Joe Flacco won a SB beating Peyton Manning & Tom Brady on the road. That's why you make the trade for a Rodgers, it doesn't matter where you are he's good enough to get you into the variancefest every year, and good enough to win games he's not supposed to win by himself.

Not every team is going to be as bad as GB is at surrounding him with talent and scheming. It's actually really difficult to do as poor a job as they have. You're basically suggesting that bad teams should pass on Rodgers to try and nab a younger QB who might be able to be a worse version of him. That's just ridiculous.

Lol at noob misunderstanding of inpredictable’s laggy adjustments to Rodgers injury.

Bilal Powell? (Missed a few games and had a couple bull**** 80 yard TDs)

7th in DVOA, the defense jumped all the way to 15th after Sunday's five-sack, five-turnover, nine-tipped-passes, 16-passes-defensed, three-touchdown performance.

If the playoffs started today we'd get a Music City Miracle rematch.

Current standings according to ESPN

AFC
1. KC
2. PIT
3. NE
4. TEN
5. BUF
6. MIA

NFC
1. PHI
2. MIN
3. CAR
4. LA
5. GB
6. NO

11 teams in each conference are 3-3 or better so still a long way to go.

No, I wasn't. I was simply arguing that there are teams that wouldn't be immediate contenders. It seems my definition of a contender may be different than most.

Are you trolling? Cle and SF are 2 of the teams that would say yes the fastest! All they would be giving up is hoyer/hogan ffs.

Movement in the SF/GB line just showed us that Rodgers is worth 10+ points. Inpredictable currently has the Browns as the worst team itl at - 8.9 gpf. Rodgers would instantly make them a top 10 team and clear contender. All but the bottom ~7 teams in the league would instantly become the best team in the league if they added Rodgers.


Edit - all the other replies pointing this out didn't load

Saints are 8th in FPI and 8th in ELO, for reasons pointed out above those are better ways to rank them then betting market (currently).

ELO Top Five:
Pats
Chiefs
Falcons
Eagles
Steelers

FPI Top Five:
Chiefs
Pats
Seahawks
Eagles
Steelers

Inpredictable (excl NO) Top Five:
Pats
Chiefs
Falcons
Seahawks
Steelers

everyone has Pats and Chiefs as the top two. Steelers are the very consensus #5 team - no more, no less!

DVOA Rankings

Chiefs

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Eagles
Steelers

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Rams

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Texans
Washington
Saints
Vikings

Gb sans Rodgers must really suck....I guess we already knew that though. Hoyer ****ing sucks.

I've sort of given up on DVOA. it's not clear at all it's "better" than the betting market (in fact I doubt it is). and the betting market is not a black box.

I'm also not sure it's any better than ELO or FPI, and both those systems update a lot faster than DVOA (ELO in almost real time).

just feels like DVOA is a relic - takes a lot of manual effort to generate, and probably isn't any better than simple systems. Like when Tangotiger put out Marcel The Monkey and found it be just about as good as PECOTA, which Nate was generating in 18 tabs in a massive Excel file that took hours to run every time he wanted to update it

obv godgers being goat is no secret but to see the line move that much on his injury is really quite wow

huge lol packers for not being able to win 5 superbowls with this guy

Surely something like (40% FPI + 40% ELO + 20% betting markets) is even better though.

What's your general sense of how correlated FPI and ELO are? (This is probably my main discomfort with a lot of 538 stuff: for all of Nate's exposition about having 5-6 different predictor variables [not just for NFL stuff], I get the sense that there's a lot of correlation/co-association in those variables.)

*checks to see where Patriots rank in DVOA*

Ah, right.

wp

to be fair, I've always thought there were problems with how DVOA does things. I'm just not sure the guys there are very good quantitively. I would be stunned if half the stuff they publish (like most of their split stats, tons of stuff derived from tiny sample sizes) isn't just pure noise.

Maybe? I know that for baseball projections for instance that is the case - the average of the 4 or 5 best systems is generally better than any one of them is.

but in this case, I'm not sure bc the betting market is so relatively strong

you mean the results, or the inputs? the inputs I think are completely different. ELO is 100% points based, it basically just compares the final score with the expected final score. FPI uses efficiency on a per play basis. FPI also has a bunch of adjustments made like rest, travel distance, etc

Wow - Chris Long is donating his entire salary this season to education scholarships and charities.

It really is unbelievable how much they've underperformed. As a Packers fan, I don't ask for a fistful of rings, but that they've only gotten to ONE Superb Owl with Rodgers is just gross.

Last year, whatever. They were so banged up, especially in the secondary, that you knew the Falcons were going to score like crazy. It was fun watching the playoff run to that point. But in most of the other seasons, McCarthy is so far outcoached in the playoffs it's a wonder he even has a job.

I'm actually more sad about Rodgers' injury not because it kills the Packers' chances this season but because we don't get to watch him play. He's the only athlete that I really just love watching play his sport (obviously guys like LeBron or Giannis are joys to watch, as well) and from a bit of a selfish standpoint, it's just sad that we, as fans, don't get that until (hopefully) next season.

i am very sorry that the next ten games will interrupt a 25 year streak of hall of fame qb play