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NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round

01-19-2019 , 01:41 AM
I may have seen it. I was 10 months old.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 01:51 AM
@ Jags L 20-31
@ Lions L 10-26
@ Bears W 38-31
@ Bills W 25-6
@ Titans L 10-34
@ Jets W 27-13
@ Dolphins L 33-34
@ Steelers L 10-17
Total: 3W/5L, 173-192
Average score: L 22-24

vs 49ers W 38-27
vs Jags W 30-14
vs Bengals W 45-10
vs Broncos W 30-23
vs Cardinals W 26-14
vs Ravens W 27-24
vs Chargers L 28-29
vs Raiders W 35-3
vs Colts W 31-13
Total: 8W/1L, 290-157
Average score: W 32-17


Prediction: 28-20 Chefs


yeah, science!
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 02:19 AM
Local radio station pointed out how healthy the Chiefs are right now compared to the earlier game. Ford and Watkins were dinged up and Berry and Houston were out.

Like Suzzer said, our defense will be adequate. And that's all we need with an elite offense.

Chiefs win, 31-25.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 02:25 AM
Tom Bardy only has 3 playoffs road wins ever. Chiefs are a lock.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 02:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
@ Jags L 20-31
@ Lions L 10-26
@ Bears W 38-31
@ Bills W 25-6
@ Titans L 10-34
@ Jets W 27-13
@ Dolphins L 33-34
@ Steelers L 10-17
Total: 3W/5L, 173-192
Average score: L 22-24

vs 49ers W 38-27
vs Jags W 30-14
vs Bengals W 45-10
vs Broncos W 30-23
vs Cardinals W 26-14
vs Ravens W 27-24
vs Chargers L 28-29
vs Raiders W 35-3
vs Colts W 31-13
Total: 8W/1L, 290-157
Average score: W 32-17


Prediction: 28-20 Chefs


yeah, science!
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimHammer
Local radio station pointed out how healthy the Chiefs are right now compared to the earlier game. Ford and Watkins were dinged up and Berry and Houston were out.

Like Suzzer said, our defense will be adequate. And that's all we need with an elite offense.

Chiefs win, 31-25.
We also started Parker, Scandrick and had someone named Shaw covering Gronk.

Also Mahomes on the sideline looked like he just did a couple oversized rails. He was definitely a little over-amped in the first half.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 03:23 AM
Scandrick was surprisingly adequate with his strategy of holding the second the wide receiver got past him every play and therefore not giving up huge plays but commiting a billion penalties

Ward has looked pretty good since the Seahawks game and scandrick hasn’t played but I think it’s too early to say if Ward is any good at all. Of course merely average would be a god send but wouldn’t surprise me if Ward is the undrafted practice squad guy the chiefs originally thought he was . We will see I hope he’s okay but I’m unconvinced. I still think Belichick will find a way to kill this defense...hope I’m wrong

I still to this day have no idea who Shaw is or why he was covering gronk
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 03:23 AM
Saints by 2+ touchdowns.
No idea on the other game.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mutigers
Scandrick was surprisingly adequate with his strategy of holding the second the wide receiver got past him every play and therefore not giving up huge plays but commiting a billion penalties

Ward has looked pretty good since the Seahawks game and scandrick hasn’t played but I think it’s too early to say if Ward is any good at all. Of course merely average would be a god send but wouldn’t surprise me if Ward is the undrafted practice squad guy the chiefs originally thought he was . We will see I hope he’s okay but I’m unconvinced. I still think Belichick will find a way to kill this defense...hope I’m wrong

I still to this day have no idea who Shaw is or why he was covering gronk
Ward blanketed Hilton pretty well - who even not 100% is faster than anyone on the Pats offense.

Before the Colts game I allowed myself to fantasize a little - man how nice it would be if we just come out of the gate and annihilate them - like they just ran into a buzz saw.

One of the NFL Films highlights has an announcer saying exactly that towards the end of the game.

I feel like there's a good chance our D comes out the same way against the Pats. However obviously if they get some breaks early it becomes an entirely different ballgame. But I have a real hard time picturing any universe where we run into a buzz saw.

I feel either we win convincingly, or it comes down to a last minute drive and my heart gives out.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I may have seen it. I was 10 months old.
65 toss power trap.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:08 AM
Suzzer, where are you watching the game? I'm in the LA area.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 12:04 PM
excellent OP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g-bebe
Rams and Chiefs, please. Feeling pretty good about it too.
yep.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
5dimes currently has future odds for SB (no vig prob):
NOR +187 (0.332)
KAN +253 (0.270)
NWE +365 (0.205)
LAR +395 (0.193)

Using Pinnacle current conf chp money lines, this projects to no vig money lines for the possible SB matchups:

NWE -105
NOR

NWE -133
LAR

KAN
NOR -130

KAN
LAR -123

So obviously NWE is getting the best implied chance of winning SB based on this week's result. KAN winning this week does not seem to improve their chances against either NFC team. The alternate view is KAN is a good futures bet due to the short NWE price. Another take: NWE is currently an overlay against KAN.

It looks to me like the best play would be to get some action on KAN SB future now, then hedge against them in the SB if they are favs or near pick.

Of course these future lines are fluid and likely not very efficient ATM.
this makes no sense. the -3 implies chiefs and pats are ~equal but the pats would be favored over both NFC teams and the chiefs would be dogs to both...?
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 07:43 PM
Some fun stats about how the Saints pass defense has improved since trading for Eli Apple, courtesy of Football Outsiders:

Quote:
In the first six games, the Saints had 35.7% pass defense DVOA (31st in the NFL) and allowed 7.8 net yards per attempt (30th). Since trading for Eli Apple and benching Ken Crawley in Week 8, the Saints have -6.6% pass defense DVOA (5th) and allow 6.5 net yards per attempt (16th).
Quote:
For the season, the Saints were 30th against No. 1 receivers and 31st against No. 2 receivers, allowing over 80 yards per game to each. But since Week 8, the Saints rank 18th against No. 1 receivers and tenth against No. 2 receivers.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ga...p-preview-2019
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by harkin
65 toss power trap.
Keep matriculating that ball down the field boys. Might be my favorite coach sideline highlight line of all time. Either that or Lou Saban: "They're KILLING me Whitey!" - I have no idea why that resonates so much but I say it all the time. Glanville had some good ones too.

Btw the Chiefs internal video promotions team - which puts out two really good segments a week with all kinds of insider info - is named 65 Toss Power Trap Productions.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VincentVega
Suzzer, where are you watching the game? I'm in the LA area.
At my place in Redondo Beach with some friends - PM me if you're nearby and want to come over.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Some fun stats about how the Saints pass defense has improved since trading for Eli Apple, courtesy of Football Outsiders:





https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ga...p-preview-2019
Take that damn math outta here! One of the things I was looking forward to in this game was lol'ing Eli Apple. Why do you want to steal my joy? Why? Why? Why???

I'll still lol @ him tomorrow. I wonder if the Saints somehow got NOLA to trespass his mother from the entire parish which made him a better player?
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 09:55 PM
Pats win and it's a close game just like last time.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:11 PM
I've been rewatching the big games of the season - just did Denver, now Pats. Holy crap the difference between NBC and ESPN.

"Joe, Joe- this kid has to prove me something. I don't know if he's ready. This is his big moment and he's not getting it done."

vs.

actual analysis from Collinsworth
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:16 PM
that's why I watch all games on mute
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
Pats win and it's a close game just like last time.
I am very worried about a close game - given it's Reid vs. GOAT.

But even then - if you give Pat the ball back with 2 minutes in 4-down territory needing a TD - I'd still be cautiously optimistic. When we're clicking we rarely even need a 3rd down.

If the Pats somehow get up 2 scores early - I won't be completely discouraged - unlike past years with Smiff, when it's basically over at that point barring perfection and a few lucky breaks.

But if we get up 2 scores in the second half - at Arrowhead - vs. 2018 dink and dunk Brady w/no explosive playmakers? I'm feeling really really good. Again, unlike in the past with Smiff where I'm terrified we slowly get bled to death with a comeback.

So I'm saying I feel like the Chiefs have multiple paths to victory - whereas the Pats pretty much need to get off early and then somehow hold off an unleashed Mahomes.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:19 PM
Tomorrow is football Christmas. Can’t wait.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:21 PM
In Mahomes name, Amen.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:22 PM
chiefs lead the league in 2nd half 3 and outs because ANDY
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:29 PM
Or - hear me out here - because they had a gigantic lead in a bunch of games and were playing super conservative.

How many of those 3 and outs were literally run-run-run-punt to eat clock and ice the game? Because i can think of 4 or 5 off the top of my head.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 10:31 PM
yeah playing conservative is almost always terrible but keep on lolnflcoaching
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote

      
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