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NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round

01-18-2019 , 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99


This is pretty good.
"Watching Andy Reid in the playoffs must be like watching your parents get divorced over and over...and then your mom brings home Norv Turner."
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 06:40 PM
Haters,

**** off, simpletons.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
Updated for accuracy


Chiefs > Saints in the Superbowl
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 08:08 PM
you forgot mystique and aura
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I'll take some Chiefs -3 if anyone is interested.
You should be going all in on Chiefs +245 to win SB, then play the hedges along the way (NWE +3 +105, NFC team -1). It does require a polish middle for the sb but you may be able to get pick if KC gets the steam (which I think they will), or if you find a one-off Saints die-hard willing to bet straight up.

You got a 13% chance of a middle this week, which would be a nice bonus.

Pretty close to free money if you get your bet sizing right. And you can reduce your hedges a bit so you can sweat the Chiefs in the big game.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 09:33 PM
Not as good as I thought. Need to find a pick SB line or it doesn't work.

10$k bankroll, bet $255 on Chiefs SB future +245, $110 NWE +3 +105, $200 NFC pk -105. It's not free money but +$5 EV.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 09:52 PM
This should be interesting. They put sod down because the field was a mess during the colts game. Game time it is going to be in low 20s. Apparently they heat the field though. Could be messy. Think Pats got this. Will be too much pressure for Mahomes.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:00 PM
Listened to the Sharp football podcast today and either he or Evan Silva went into a pretty deep dive on why they think the chiefs home field advantage might be getting overblown a lot considering the quality of qbs they got to face at home and even the last few years how opposing qbs are still putting up better road stats against the chiefs than their typical road stats. Also they pointed out that for as good as Mahomes has been he hasn’t been the otherworldly guy he was at beginning of the season since basically the rams game. Think his yards per attempt has been like a full two yards less over the last six games. Of course that kind of coincides with Watkins being out and Hunt leaving so idk but food for thought. I have perhaps been nit picky but does seem like he’s gotten lucky on dropped picks and has made some pretty crappy overthrown passes...I’m already spoiled by him of course. Really weird when the other team scores and my first thought is honestly “cool we get to see Mahomes now”

I’m just really nervous playoff Andy is going to ruin this somehow. He obv made the correct decisions last week on the fourth downs and whatnot I’m just worried the defense looking good will trick him into being conservative when the facts remain the offense has been historically great while the defense has been very bad and imo the pats will score at least 28. The offense wasn’t very impressive in the second half last week I’m hoping he was saving some plays

Last edited by mutigers; 01-18-2019 at 10:05 PM.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Updated for accuracy


Chiefs > Saints in the Superbowl
Andy Reid never put his slow as hell tight end to defend against a 75-yard bomb from Ryan Tannenhill.

True story.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
You should be going all in on Chiefs +245 to win SB, then play the hedges along the way (NWE +3 +105, NFC team -1). It does require a polish middle for the sb but you may be able to get pick if KC gets the steam (which I think they will), or if you find a one-off Saints die-hard willing to bet straight up.

You got a 13% chance of a middle this week, which would be a nice bonus.

Pretty close to free money if you get your bet sizing right. And you can reduce your hedges a bit so you can sweat the Chiefs in the big game.
Yeah I need a sportsbook for that I think.

I have no feeling about the SB. I do have a good feeling about Chiefs -3.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:19 PM
suzzer i'll take pats +3 for 50 if you got paypal
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mutigers
Listened to the Sharp football podcast today and either he or Evan Silva went into a pretty deep dive on why they think the chiefs home field advantage might be getting overblown a lot considering the quality of qbs they got to face at home and even the last few years how opposing qbs are still putting up better road stats against the chiefs than their typical road stats.
False. This is the playoffs and the crowd will be extra loud. Chiefs D needs that extra quarter step because no one can hear ****, so the tackles can't time it and start backpeddling a hair early. The Pats know they're old and slow and maybe at the end of this run. If the Chiefs can get up early, the crowd will help get ease the Pats into subconscious capitulation like it did the Colts. That's just science.

Quote:
Also they pointed out that for as good as Mahomes has been he hasn’t been the otherworldly guy he was at beginning of the season since basically the rams game. Think his yards per attempt has been like a full two yards less over the last six games. Of course that kind of coincides with Watkins being out and Hunt leaving so idk but food for thought. I have perhaps been nit picky but does seem like he’s gotten lucky on dropped picks and has made some pretty crappy overthrown passes...I’m already spoiled by him of course. Really weird when the other team scores and my first thought is honestly “cool we get to see Mahomes now”
His long ball has definitely been off. I predict BB will basically dare Mahomes to throw bombs as it's his best chance to win the game. Hopefully Mahomes gets it figured out. Not having Watkins makes a big difference. We're basically back to that team that just overwhelms defenses with too many weapons and can score at will. The first drive vs. the Colts was 5 plays, 90 yards - with a huge chunk of that to Watkins.

Every other aspect of Mahomes' game is clicking on all cylinders right now. The Chiefs played super-conservative with a 3-score lead and you could tell Mahomes was making sure not to throw an INT or fumble above all else. Every time the Colts pulled it to 2 scores, Mahomes marched right down the field.

Quote:
I’m just really nervous playoff Andy is going to ruin this somehow. He obv made the correct decisions last week on the fourth downs and whatnot I’m just worried the defense looking good will trick him into being conservative when the facts remain the offense has been historically great while the defense has been very bad and imo the pats will score at least 28. The offense wasn’t very impressive in the second half last week I’m hoping he was saving some plays
As long as he waits until 3 scores up to go conservative I'm fine with it. I agree if this turns into a barn burner I'm gonna be terrified about Reid doing something dumb with the clock. And Butker. And just about everything else going wrong. Hopefully we just cruise keep it out of reach.

For once in my entire Chiefs fandom which goes back to pre-Marty, we seem to have a team that's peaking in the playoffs instead of nadir-ing. I thought for sure the loss of Hunt was going to be the story - but now I'm thinking they've made up for 95% of that with Williams and co.

I'm pretty optimistic the D comes out on fire again and is just too much for the Pats assuming our offense puts up 30 or so. I'm actually more nervous about a bunch of drops by the WR or weird turnovers or injuries on offense or horrible calls than I am about the D blowing it. We'll see.

The SB, if we make it, is where I'll be a lot more worried about the D regressing. I think they get discouraged and start pressing when they get torched early and don't have the home crowd to pump them up. Rams or Saints can easily do that.

Last edited by suzzer99; 01-18-2019 at 10:31 PM.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Rata
suzzer i'll take pats +3 for 50 if you got paypal
Booked.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Andy Reid never put his slow as hell tight end to defend against a 75-yard bomb from Ryan Tannenhill.

True story.
Hey.

Shut up.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 10:59 PM
I'm not sure what's been more entertaining, suzzer trying to convince himself that the chefs defense is adequate or patsfan patsfanning in maximum m******* fashion.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FellaGaga-52
But I didn't like that cell phone crap in the regular season game, thinking it would come back to haunt them at LA in playoffs.
Why do you hate fun
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booker Wolfbox
I'm not sure what's been more entertaining, suzzer trying to convince himself that the chefs defense is adequate or patsfan patsfanning in maximum m******* fashion.
The D has been adequate at home and hitting peak adequate at the moment. Get ready for an explosion of adequacity on Sunday.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
The D has been adequate at home
Peak Suzzer
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-18-2019 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
Peak Suzzer
Nothing projects false bravado like "adequate."
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 12:16 AM
It's weird people knock suzzer for hyping up the Chiefs D a little but completely ignore how relatively trash the Pats have been as a team on the road this year. That's more fact than anything you can say about the Chiefs D.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 12:31 AM
it's going to be like 43-40 again and you're lying to yourself if you think otherwise
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 12:34 AM
Patriots 35-21. Chefs 2 late TDs to make it respectable. Walrus punts on 4th and 2 in the 3rd quarter down 28-7.

Other game who cares. Just make it entertaining.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
Peak Suzzer
They've give up 16 points at home - 10 less than the road. They've allowed 9 points their last two games. The Colts, who had the best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, were 0-9 on 3rd down.

But I get it - the Colts just started sucking out of the blue for no reason. Couldn't be the defense and definitely wasn't the crowd noise.

However the Patriots, who are 3-5 on the road - all losses vs. non-playoff teams, and have the 31st-ranked defensive DVOA on the road - are gonna rise up. Occam's razor.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prizminferno
it's going to be like 43-40 again and you're lying to yourself if you think otherwise
You don't want to play that game and you know you don't want to play that game. Quit lying to yourself.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote
01-19-2019 , 01:37 AM
you have never seen your team win a SB
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Quote

      
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