Welcome to the penultimate thread of the season. There are a lot of terrible things about the NFL:

The commissioner
The owners
The owners' wives
The owners' children
Approximately 29 coaches
Lopsided labor relations
CTE
That MNF announcing crew
The refs
Rampant domestic violence
The domestic violence "policy" (you're good unless there's video)

I came up with that list in about 45 seconds, feel free to add to it below. But even with all the nonsense, it is the most compelling sports entertainment product out there. So here we all are.

Before I get to the games, a quick shout out to the recently deceased John Bogle, who did more for America than most anyone I can think of. Thanks to John, literally hundreds of billions of dollars have been saved by investors. If you've got an account with Edwards Jones or Raymond James or frankly any of these "financial advisor" dopes, google John's name and get your act together. I don't care if your guy looks good in a suit, buys you lunch every quarter or is related to your wife, fire him.

On to the matchups:

Rams at Saints -3.5

Let's say you're Sean Payton and you have the possible MVP as your quarterback. Do you:

A. Play him every play

or

B. Put in another guy sometimes

If you guessed A, you agree with me. If not, you agree with the Super Bowl winning coach. Independent thought is important, folks.

I have absolutely no confidence in Goff on the road. The dude gives every indication that his success is due to getting coached up; the Rams only dominated Dallas because they rushed for a zillion yards. And they did that because Clapper Chilly's defense tipped off their defense with the formation (loooool). The Saints have a good rush defense and a decent pass rush; I just don't see how the Rams keep up. This game has the potential to be a blowout. Absolutely hate laying 3.5, ever. Will likely bet the Saints ML.

Separately, why isn't the Rams defense great? Donald, Suh, Peters, Talib. I don't get it. When you see Gayle Benson out there lifting the trophy, pour one out for Tom Benson's kids. While the current Bezos squeeze is a pretty elite money grubbing you know what (seriously, look her up), the only person I can think of who holds a candle to the Saints owner is Wendi Deng. Who is, of course, very close with Ivanka Trump. Tax capital, not labor.

Patriots at Chiefs -3

I don't know, man. As much as I want to buy in to the Patriots, primarily because it is funny to see how mad they make everyone, I'm more inclined to chalk last week up to the situation. The Chargers were on their third straight cross country trip, their coach is a moron and the Pats hadn't played a game they cared about in a month. But, of course, BB is the legit GOAT. I'm never betting against him, so really it's a decision to bet the Pats or pass the game. I'm a degenerate, so I'll almost certainly bet the Pats.

KC has the 26th ranked defense in the league. I believe far more in the season long stats than one game last week. I don't know what happened to Luck, but it won't happen to Brady. Apparently the weather is only going to be "really bad" vs. "the worst ever," but neither helps Trump Hands Mahomie. Plus we've got Playoff Andy Reid vs. the literal greatest coach ever. It's just hard to see this ending any way but heartbreak for the Chiefsplanet crew.

Only three more games. Soak it up.

There’s one reason. Dood repeatedly gets burned, avoids tackling and can be suckered into becoming a jaw-jacking (CJ Anderson’s term) free first down card. There should be an over/under on how many times he and Joyner get toasted.
Those two kept the Pokes in the game.

Agree that Goff drops off on the road, he should thank god the game is indoors.

Pats 37-21

I wonder if the Hall of Famer that will struggle with the cold is actually Gronkowski.

In the last two months, the only game where Gronk was very effective receiving the ball was @MIA.

@NYJ 54 deg 3/56/1 on 7 targets - TD was in decent coverage, perfect throw.
MIN 53 deg 3/26/0 on 4 targets
@MIA 82 deg 8/107/1 on 8 targets
@PIT 42 deg 2/21/0 on 5 targets
BUF 40 deg 0/0/0 on 3 targets
NYJ 33 deg 2/24/0 on 2 targets
LAC 26 deg 1/25/0 on 1 target

He did block really well last week.

Chiefs have parade route planned and a radio is giving away a hotel room above it.. they don't learn

Saints 24 Rams 13
Chiefs 21 Pats 10

Rams and Chiefs, please. Feeling pretty good about it too.

Don't really care who wins at this point, still hashing out the scenario that maximizes LOLs.

What I respect about the Pats is that they're always evolving to stay ahead of the curve. I expect them to unleash an innovative new cheating method for this game. Chiefs still win 42-0

Saints 30-21

Saints & Chefs both cover with relative ease

lol

Homage to Bogle + "Trump Hands" shout out = nice OP

Aints in a romp

Chefs survive Andrew Ried's bungling as his thoughts wander to a huge bowl of chili while freezing his fat ass on the sideline

sunday night will be fun to read twitter with the butthurt of middle america flying into orbit

Chiefs in 9 games at home held teams to 14 or less points 5 times, although it was a generous schedule.

Pats only scored 30+ points in 2 of 8 road games.

In games the Chiefs scored less than 30 at home they scored 26, 27 and 29.

Pats scored less than 26 in 7 of 17 games played.

Patriots scored a mere 10 points in 3 of their 8 road games this year.

SWEEP THE LEG ANDY!

what's any of that have to do with this week? games are independent events.

5dimes currently has future odds for SB (no vig prob):
NOR +187 (0.332)
KAN +253 (0.270)
NWE +365 (0.205)
LAR +395 (0.193)

Using Pinnacle current conf chp money lines, this projects to no vig money lines for the possible SB matchups:

NWE -105
NOR

NWE -133
LAR

KAN
NOR -130

KAN
LAR -123

So obviously NWE is getting the best implied chance of winning SB based on this week's result. KAN winning this week does not seem to improve their chances against either NFC team. The alternate view is KAN is a good futures bet due to the short NWE price. Another take: NWE is currently an overlay against KAN.

It looks to me like the best play would be to get some action on KAN SB future now, then hedge against them in the SB if they are favs or near pick.

Of course these future lines are fluid and likely not very efficient ATM.

Another good play would be to get some action on NWE this week if you can get anything better than +3 ev, plus the KAN SB future +245 or better. So you would be hedged twice, with good middle chances this week and a chance to get a decent scalp for the SB if KAN wins this week.

Colts
Cowboys
Chargers
Eagles

What did Phil Rivers never beating Brady before have to do with anything last week? ONLY EVERYTHING!

I'll make it simple for you. Pats have been average at best on the road this season in all facets and that includes Brady. Chiefs D plays better at home.

#BetAgainstThem

Andy Reid conference title game at home huh.

Might be just in the 20's instead of holy **** it's cold.

LMAO always makes me laugh

GOAT

and nobody will care when they lose again