I can buy '07 being a choke because that team was 18-0 and trying to be the GOAT team.

2011 with Gronk injured the Giants just had the better team though. Most Pats fans did not expect a SB that year, defense sucked too. Hernandez played well but he obviously had other things on his mind, like killing the guy who might snitch about his previous murders. Kidding aside, Welker does not get nearly enough **** for not catching that ball when NE was driving late with the lead, he catches that like 98/100.

'12 and '13 with no Gronk as well. I'm pretty sure no elite QB has been without their top weapon for the SB-conf champ game-entire playoffs like that 3 straight years either.

'15 Gost doesn't miss a XP earlier in the game and NE likely goes to OT vs Manning Broncos and are decent favs.


So Brady has had some run bad too.

still, gotta wonder how Brady would fare throwing to prime Harrison and Wayne inside a dome their whole careers. Peyton might no longer lead TB12 in the one thing he has left - dome stats.

Pats were still favorites in the 2nd NYG game and preseason around the 3rd best SB odds. Not really buying that narrative above. They weren’t the best Pats team but still were expected to win.

Brady’s had a strange career in terms of that. Early in his career he ran like an absolute god, then ran horribly in the middle, and now is running hotter than the sun again. His win expectancy was in the low single digits in the SEA and ATL games and it should’ve been a miracle to even win one of those let alone both. The Seattle game was pure dumb luck based on Pete Carroll throwing the game away. Atlanta game was extremely lucky but not like a 39 year old Peyton could’ve done what Brady did in that game even though the falcons also gave it away.

I do think Brady ran bad for a stretch but the absurd run hot of the last 2 SB wins cancels all that out for his entire career imo. I’d say overall he’s still run extremely above expectation, prob more so than any QB ever.

Still the GOAT tho. Lol Peyton.

Anyone with 5 SB's is gonna run above expectation on some level but I don't see how you can take the nadir of the Pats values in both of those games and just say well, he ran good. Sure he did, but Seattle ran good to get down to the 5 yard line on that Kearse catch, ATL ran good to get up 28-3, etc. NE was up 21-3 in the AFCCG vs Indy in 2006 and Rex Grossman was waiting in the superbowl, does that cancel out the Falcons game? Truth is NE was likely the better team vs ATL and Indy was likely the better team than NE in '06.

He's lost more 50/50 type games in conf champ/SB than any other QB I'd guess.

As far as the NYG SB, they were -2.5 vs a 9-7 team with a negative point differential and needed a crazy Lee Evans drop/Cundiff missed FG to fade the Ravens game the week before. I just think in retrospect the wrong team was favored in this game but it was hard for everyone to adjust to the fact the Giants were the better team because they're the Giants. NE's D sucked all year and Welker's drop, you really have to youtube it, people forget how much of a choke it was. I just don't see how this is a negative for Brady at all. The Giants were legit the better team.

Sure NE was 3rd in preseason SB odds but when aren't they? I'm actually surprised they weren't 1st or 2nd (who was 1st or 2nd? Rodgers/GB were defending champs but were sitll only a wildcard team the year before)

They were small favorites in 2011 but I don't think anybody really appreciated how badly Gronk was hurt. Ended up being a massive factor.

Mixed in with all the run good, I think it's actually not well appreciated how many good seasons they've had with major injuries. They didn't have Gronk for the entire SB run last year. How often did Montana not have Rice?

This year of course they are down a 100 catch guy who they can't replace, so the offense changes to be more vertical. A lot of that credit does go to the coaches but I think amongst the run good, it's ridiculous how much success they've had despite huge injuries.

The Falcons game was the Super Bowl and Atlanta scored to go up 28-3 with 8:31 left in the 3Q. In the Indy game it was a CG and NE scored to go up 21-3 with 9:25 left in the 2Q. They don’t come close to canceling each other out.

The Pats were a 13-3 team in 2011 and #3 in SRS with the Giants being 9-7 and #13 in SRS. The Pats had a +171 point differential and the Giants had a -6. And the Giants won the championship game on a botched punt return in overtime, so it’s not like they were flexing hard all playoffs. Seems very revisionist to suggest the Giants were the better team and Pats fans weren’t expecting a Super Bowl won when the Pats were significantly better in basically every metric.

I only checked one source but it looks like the Packers were slightly above the Pats most places, with Baltimore very close. So somewhere around 2-3 most places.

Re: 2011 Giants.

- they had beaten the Pats in the regular season. Reasonable to suggest they were a matchup problem.

- they had indeed closed very strong. Big wins in their final 2 regular season games to make the playoffs, blowout vs Falcons, huge win @ 15-1 GB and just the fact they were in a close game @ 13-3 SF is a strong result (even if it took good fortune to win). That team had closed strong.

Imagine if Peyton had Brady's lack of integrity, and decided to cheat for his entire career. Probably would have never lost a single game.

Now you will see that Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb

use the schwartz Nicky Foles, use the schwartz!

All that and the Pats were less than a 3 point favorite vs NYG.

You underestimate the foreheads hall of fame caliber choking skills.

Like Peyton would ever let someone actually coach him. Would rather call a bunch of audibles and get his D sucked by every announcer about how in control he is, only to get happy feet when it's a big game.

You're a good poster, but it's disingenuous to talk about the patriots win expectancy/miracle without noting that Seattle got to that point due to a much bigger "miracle." Kearse catch was pure luck.

That’s true and had Seattle won the game I would’ve said they got pretty lucky. Still, it’s not like the Kearse grab was on 4th or even 3rd down. It was 1st and 10 with 1:14 left from the NE 38 with 2 timeouts. Even if the ball falls incomplete Seattle’s still got a decent shot to win. Whereas NE was drawing close to dead after the catch. Ultimately we always remember the highest leverage plays I suppose which is usually the play that happens latest in the game.

My main gripe is with Pats fans acting like the expected to lose the 2011 game and the Giants were the better team. I would have to search posting history but I doubt that was the narrative at the time. Pretty sure they were confident going in and as I said earlier the Pats had an excellent season compared to the Giants.

Nah Pats were better than Giants in 2011. It may have been the weakest Pats SB team of this run, but please, we all expected them to win.

Rams much better than Pats in 2001, Pats much better than Giants in 2007. Rest of their SBs were of reasonably comparable teams imo.

"Brady run hot" condensed is basically that he has played in 6 very close SB + 1 sort of close one and has won 5. 5/7 when pythag probably says 4/7 is the "correct" outcome.

Which is a reasonable argument to make.

The counter point is that this team has generally been a ton better than their opponents on the edges / in end game scenarios which explains some of that. IE the Jags kneeling with 55 seconds and 2 TO, the Eagles running slow down even at the end, the Panthers kicking the ball oob. Little things add up.

Meh first eagles SB was competitive but they never had the ball with a realistic chance to tie/win. Got ball back deep in own zone with 30 second and no TOs iirc.

Right, that's the "sort of close" one.

I remember it like it was yesterday, not 13 years ago.
I may have puked more than McNabb.

jags kneeling with 1 min and 2 timeouts is just good football.

Jags had the lead when they kneeled iirc.

Yeah because it's not like you might need any additional points to beat the New England Patriots.

Before the game started, none of us knew that Gronk couldn't run. And even though his production was GRONK back then, he wasn't quite GRONK yet, if that makes sense.

So his injury didn't really hold the weight with the everyone that it should've.

Fake news. In 2011 GRONK set the single season record for TDs and yards by a tight end.