That might be a fun rule change for the XFL...moving goalposts.

Julio trade obviously worked out great for the Falcons & terrible for the Browns. But the Browns do badly when they trade down so they shouldn't trade down is kind of like saying seat 3 is cold so whoever sits there next is going to lose $. The logical fallacies are my main issue with the argument.

Also, as you can see from the history I posted, the Browns also have terrible results when they trade up, & their results keeping their own picks also hasn't been great.

Teams highly value the QBs in this draft, rightly or wrongly, so if you are a team who doesn't need one, you're probably making a mistake not trading down (unless I'm completely misestimating the market).

If they sign Cousins, it would be a mistake not to move back to 2, 5, or 6 with the Giants, Broncos or Jets, & if they draft a QB #1 they'd be even more foolish not to start a bidding war between the Jets & Broncos to drop back from 4 & likely still get the exact same player they would have drafted at 5 or 6. Or they could drop back further if it's a godfather offer.

The point is you're just giving up value staying put if you're not one of the teams in need of a QB solution. Colts should also be trading down from 3, Bucs from 7, Bears from 8, 49ers/Raiders from 9/10. Whoever has a pick when a QB another team desperately wants is available should be listening hard.

Teams like the Dolphins (11), Cards (15), Ravens (16), Bills (21 & 22), & maybe even the Jags (29) & Vikings (30) could be looking to move up for a certain QB if they fall in love with a guy.

Depth of roster is so important for sustained success & building up a lot of cheap young talent so you can afford to plug in holes in free agency or resign your important guys is huge in minimizing dead cap & maximizing overall roster efficiency.

are you drunk? (I must be drunk for wanting to nitpick the nitpicking of a nitpicker) but...but I said this

Because trading down has done so well for them in the past? Yes they have a different and hopefully better GM to use picks wisely but to date, the only definitely vg player they’ve drafted in the past 2 years and 20 something picks is Garrett. If they could draft two more Garrett level blue chip players, say Chubb and Fitzpatrick then I’d be very happy

and this

Outside of the Rams getting Ogeltree and Jenkins from the picks they used to trade down for Bob, I can’t think of another massive trade out of the top 6 or 7 picks where the team trading down ended up better than if they had drafted the blue chipper instead

but then you said this

this is a hindsight argument because that's what FW decided to make it by saying these trades never work out better for the team trading down.


when I clearly didn't say the bolded at all, so I responded with this

No, I said it hasn't worked out for the Browns to date and that I couldn't think of many examples in recent years outside of the Rams with Ogletree and Jenkins vs Bob Griffin where the trade down was clearly better.

which doesn't seem to be moving the goalposts at all.

anyway, I'll leave this part alone from here and examine what I feel about your trade posts and my original position

Sorry, you said that this type of trade worked out better one time, not zero times.

I mostly just thought the goalposts line was funny

Regardless going through the examples shouldn't even really matter because every situation is unique & different, & your argument appears to be that the Browns should not trade down in this year's draft because they tried it before & it didn't work + you can't remember it ever working for other teams except one time so it's bad.

I have a large negative reaction to that type of opinion, & I know you wouldn't use similar thought processes in other parts of your life like work or poker because they would have a negative impact on your bottom line.

Browns & seat 3 confirmed cold and thus should never trade down

Also they've done really well when they've picked high

Colts might pick a QB @ 3. Luck might be dead we don't know. Also NYG at 2, given they gave up on Eli at one point this season. Certainly Denver at 5 has to do something at the position in either draft or FA. Jets at 6. Five might be off the board by the 7th pick in the draft. Browns just aren't gonna pick 2 of them at 1 and 4--that's just a media/team disaster.

Only washington so far out of the numerous teams we thought might pick one entering the offseason won't at least this year in rd 1.

Still a lot of the carousel to shake out with new coaches in places and things like if the new coach wants that QB on the current team there at all. Both mcdaniels/gruden ****ed all that up before.

No way in hell McDaniels takes the Colts job without some knowledge that Luck is fine

This is the same guy who drafted Tebow.

Team is pretty meh even if Luck is fine.

Jags/Titans/Texans all have solid squads. Luck dominated when all 3 teams blew ass. Now at worst all are .500 or better squads on paper with healthy QBs.

Is there any reason to think Luck won't recover fully? Same injury that Brees had before the Dolphins turned him down and he went to the Saints, right?

I'm interested because there are rumors going around the Bills' boards that Buffalo is interested in trading for Luck.

I would think the fact that he missed all of last season as the only evidence that might suggest it.

https://www.si.com/si-wire/2014/06/1...kable-comeback

Colts have a ton of cap space and Luck locked up for four years, they went 3-6 in one score games this season and had the lead in the fourth quarter in nine games. Plus Ballard isn't a braindead idiot who will draft a below average WR in the first. Assuming Luck will be fine going into next season they're in a decent spot even with the division becoming tougher

wow at people in a poker forum deciding that if a play doesn't work 100% of the time, it must be -EV.

They finished 3rd worst in PD in the league (Giants were 1 "ahead" and Browns 30 or so "ahead"). They did have a few close games but blown out of a ton of games.

I don't know enough about their team other than Luck/Hilton but who do they have to build around?

I hope Luck comes back and does well but I'm not feeling their roster.

Ehh I'd say the only true blowouts were week 1 vs Rams when they were playing Tolzien and the two Jags games. The Seahawks game which ended in a big loss was tied late in the third, the Titans game where they lost by 14 they were leading in the fourth and Derrick Henry chose to run 72 yards for a TD with a minute to go instead of take a knee to ice it, which would have made it a one score game. All other games were within one score except a 12 point loss to the Broncos. Playing Brissett instead of Luck obviously has a massive impact on PD as well.

The rest of their roster isn't incredible but again they have huge cap space, the 3rd overall pick and Ballard/McDaniels instead of Grigson/Pagano so pretty confident something can happen there, again assuming Luck is healthy

Is TO a HOFer? Jason Whitlock seems to think if you arent in any teams ring of honor you shouldn't be in the HOF

Pretty easy yes.

DL has been good, Sheard way better than expected, Hookers ACL tear hurt a lot on D. Roster has gotten way younger thanks to Ballard...

On offense it's bleaker I would say but Luck at 100% should make the O top 10 immediately...

Will be very interesting to see how they handle free agency and the draft.

Also there is no way they draft a QB...

Donald DPOY

TO, Ray Ray, Randy, Dawkins, Urlacher to HOF. Some old guys too but that's a pretty sick class. Glad TO if finally in. Guy is so good.

Way harder to get into the HOF in the NFL than MLB especially for WRs because of the sheer amount of worthy ones who have been waiting for ages.

WR is definitely logjammed but this statement is ridiculous. Way more middling RB's get in NFL HOF than middling MLB players combined.

Of the top 10 in all time receiving yards, Fitz is a superlock and so is Tony G, Bruce and Steve Smith are likely on the bubble and Wayne may be as well. Andre Johnson is #11, and he's likely on the bubble as well. Boldin is likely snub, Ellard, Holt and Fryar are likely snubbed as well. Bruce, Wayne and Holt at least have SB rings. Many of these guys might make it as old vets in the future but right now I would say it's doubtful.

I'm just glad The Cars finally got into the R&R HOF.

Who are the middling RBs getting in, Curtis Martin? Emmitt, Payton, Barry are stone cold locks. LDT same thing. Bettis, maybe meddling, but he's also got a huge personality beyond the field.

IDK, Gore is likely on the bubble despite being 5th all time in rushing. I think AP is the only lock current RB and no one is close. Like Bell has HOF talent but it's way too early. Lesean McCoy, Lynch and Forte are also pretty fringe-esque HOF players.

Brady MVP at 40 years old. GOAT.