They should seriously consider drafting 2 QBs if they aren't able to trade down from 1 of the picks.

So many teams need QB and then you have Rivers, Big Ben, Brees, Brady getting old. I think theres a good chance at 3 QBs in the top 4. 1 and 2 feel like locks and a trade up for QB at 3 or 4. Feels like its gonna be a QB frenzy all off-season.

No...you're taking tiny sample sizes without even analyzing the actual results, just your impression of them, & using them to make a broader point.

I was thinking about this example (they also got Corey Davis & Jonnu Smith who should be big pieces of the offense starting next year).

Saints example you gave obviously good, too.

Eli for Rivers + Merriman + Oben + Kaeding not bad for the Chargers.

Chargers trading up to #2 pick to draft Ryan Leaf when the Cardinals ended up drafting Wadsworth, Chavous, Metcalf, Sapp (Patrick, not Warren) & David Boston (who put up a 1,598 yard season at 23).

Dolphins trading up to draft Dion Jordan at #3 pick. Raiders get D.J. Hayden + Menelik Watson, who also weren't great, but at least there were 2 of them & they were cheaper?

Bengals trading up from 5 to 1 to draft Ki-Jana Carter. Panthers drafted Kerry Collins & Shawn King.

Browns trading up from 4 to 3 to draft TRich. Matt Kalil was at least good for a little while, plus Jarius Wright is still around & Robert Blanton wasn't terrible.

David Boston lifted his way out of the league.

Other ones you could probably argue either way, but probably slightly favor the team trading down...

2002 NFL Draft

Falcons get #1 pick:
Michael Vick

Chargers get:
Tomlinson (#5)
Tay Cody (#67)
Reche Caldwell (#48 the next year)
Tim Dwight

2003 NFL Draft

Jets get:
DT Dewayne Robertson (#4)

Bears get (combined with other trades that followed from same picks):
DE Michael Haynes (#14)
QB Rex Grossman (#22)
DT Ian Scott

2009 NFL Draft

Jets get:
QB Mark Sanchez

Browns get:
3 veterans
17th pick
52nd pick (some guy named David Veikune)

The 17th pick was used to draft QB Josh Freeman. The Browns got 19th & 191st (some guy named Coye Francies) for that pick. The 19th pick was used to draft WR Jeremy Maclin. Of course, the Browns had traded out of that spot, too, in order to get the 21st pick & the 195th pick (James Davis).

Bottom line, though? The #21 pick was Alex Mack & this seems like a successful series of trades for the Browns.

2012 NFL Draft

Jaguars get:
WR Justin Blackmon (#5)

Bucs get:
S Mark Barron (#7)
101st pick

They used the 101st pick to trade up from 36 to 31 & draft RB Doug Martin.

2017 NFL Draft

Bears get:
QB Mitch Trubisky (#2)

49ers get:
DE Solomon Thomas (#3)
#67 (which the Saints used to draft Alvin Kamara, but the 49ers have the #59 pick in this year's draft as a result, & got some 7th rounder named Colbert)
#111 (which the 49ers used to trade up from 34 to 31 & draft LB Reuben Foster)

So yeah, if it wasn't for that Kamara trade...haha.

But Trubisky for Thomas, Foster & the 59th pick this year seems fine for the 49ers.

This is all versus what? Your sample of 2, Julio & Watkins? I guess 3, Wentz. It's just that they draft terrible players, not that the trades are that horrible. Browns would probably have drafted different horrible players if they kept the picks.

Yeah, I think the real thesis is that teams drafting in the top 5 tend to be clownshoes organizations

Julio Jones trade:

Falcons get:
WR Julio Jones (#6)

Browns get:
#27 - They used #27 to trade up to #21 & draft DT Phil Taylor. They traded away #90 in the deal, & the Chiefs took LB Justin Houston at #70. If they had drafted Cameron Jordan, who went #24, maybe it wouldn't have been as complete of a disaster. 27 actually became 26 when the Ravens failed to submit their pick in time. The Chiefs then used 26 to draft Jonathan Baldwin oops. Muhammad Wilkerson & Cam Hayward went 30 & 31 & would have been fine at 27. Then they could have drafted Justin Houston & had a pretty sweet defense.

WR Greg Little (#59) - Randall Cobb went 64 & was the next WR taken. DeMarco Murray & Jurell Casey also went pretty soon after (you know, if they wanted a DT so bad).

FB Owen Marecic (#124) - So yeah...they for some reason drafted a FB. Some of the players who went soon after include Bilal Powell, Julius Thomas, & Davon House (Richard Sherman also went about 30 picks later).

QB Brandon Weeden (2012 #22) - Another terrible pick, both at the time & in hindsight. The next 3 picks were Riley Reiff, David DeCastro & Dont'a Hightower. Harrison Smith & Janoris Jenkins also didn't go too much later. The next QB drafted was Russell Wilson at 75. Maybe they should have taken him instead? The next 2 QBs taken after him were Nick Foles & Kirk Cousins.

2012 #118 - They traded this pick as part of the TRich deal. Mike Daniels, Malik Jackson & Josh Norman went not too far after that.

So yeah, in crazy hypothetical unrealistic world:

Falcons get:
WR Julio Jones

Browns get:
DE Muhammad Wilkerson
DT Jurell Casey
CB Richard Sherman
QB Russell Wilson
CB Josh Norman

g2g

Sammy Watkins trade:

Bills get:
WR Sammy Watkins (#4)

Browns get:
#9 - Vikings used that pick to draft LB Anthony Barr. Of course, Cleveland decided it would be a good idea to trade up to #8 & draft CB Justin Gilbert, giving up the 145th pick to do it. On the bright side for the Browns, no good players were drafted around then. Anyway, literally 7 of the 9 players drafted after Gilbert have been to the Pro-Bowl - Barr, Taylor Lewan, Odell Beckham, Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier, Zach Martin & CJ Mosley. They almost couldn't avoid drafting a good player. But somehow they did (the other 2 players in that range were Ebron to the Lions @ 10 & Kyle Fuller to the Bears @ 14).

C Cameron Erving (2015 #19 pick) - Honestly there were some ok players to go after him, but no one particularly special until you get to like #86 (David Johnson). Seems to have been a really crappy draft. Not sure if something they should have thought through in advance...

S Ibraheim Campbell (2015 #115) - Kwon Alexander went pretty soon after, but not much else.

Anyway, this literally would have been a good trade for the Browns if they had taken almost anyone except the 1 guy they did. As such, the trade part seems fine.

Carson Wentz trade:

Eagles get:
QB Carson Wentz (#2)

Browns get:
#8 - They traded #8 to the Titans (along with #176), in return they got #15 which they used to draft WR Corey Coleman & #76 which they used to draft T Shon Coleman. Titans drafted Jack Conklin.

#77 - They traded #77 to the Panthers (along with #141), in return they got #93 which they used to draft QB Cory Kessler, #129 which they used to draft S Derrick Kindred (Dak went #135), & #168 which they used to draft T Spencer Drango. Panthers drafted Daryl Worley.

#100 - They traded #100 to the Raiders in return for #114 which they used to draft WR Ricardo Louis & #154 which they used to draft WR Jordan Payton. The Raiders drafted Conner Cook.

2017 1st #12 overall - This pick was used to draft Deshaun Watson. Unfortunately for the Browns, not by them. In return, however, they got #25 which they used to draft Jabrill Peppers, & the Texans' 2018 1st rounder, which due to Watson's injury became #4 overall.

2018 2nd - Will be either 63rd or 64th this year.

So if the trade was:

Eagles get:
Wentz

Browns get:
Watson
Coleman
Coleman
Kessler
Kindred
Louis
Payton

It doesn't seem too bad. With the Watson trade it is currently:

Eagles get:
Wentz

Browns get:
Coleman
Coleman
Kessler
Kindred
Louis
Payton
Peppers
2018 #4 pick
2018 #63 or 64 pick

Which doesn't seem good. But it's still early. They also got an additional couple years of the #1 pick by running out terrible QBs + Hue Jackson. The only thing they forgot to do is replace Hue Jackson.

am working, so haven't got time to go through point for point right now but the one post I did read has a ridiculous double standard

- these organisations are so dumb so they'd probably draft a bad guy anyway with their top 5 pick but then...

-let's just imagine they traded down and then see what happens if they'd drafted the best player available given hindsight and evaluate how it'd look then.

hmm - they can't pick a can't miss player in the top 5 but they can somehow pick all the studs down lower?

I gave one silly hypothetical about the Julio trade. The Watkins points stands, though. That trade was fine, they just drafted the only bad player there was. I went through most of the history just for fun.

The larger point is that the vast majority of all the trades involving top picks worked better for the team that traded down, so your original point is still very bad.

& you should know why, even without the mountains of evidence above.

A lot of those trades are simple evaluation and EV calcs. The EV draft chart doesn't account for say Julio Jones level prospect still being there at pick 6 and nobody great after him. The standard Jimmy Johnson draft chart doesn't account for LOL picks. Fot me it's really a fluid chart.

Thought the Julio/Blackmon trades were sure +EV for the teams moving up.

Wadsworth was a bigger bust than Leaf and it's a shame that isn't more lol worthy than people remember because the next pick was the heisman winner, Charles Woodson.

That said, ego does get involved and and pretty much every second round for next years first trades ended up stupid as all hell. Not only was the second they got usually a bust the next years first usually ended up in a good draft.

tl;dr It's a mix, sometimes I like the team moving up end of the deal and sometimes I don't and sometimes I'm right/wrong. NFL is weird like this all the time. I would've moved up for blackmon too and not thought twice about it. I wouldn't have traded up for wentz. lol me.

God damnit Blackmon...why did he love alcohol so much? He honestly might be the biggest waste of talent ever. Dude made Blaine Gabbert look good.

I'm not buying this vast majority stuff now. Nobody won the RGIII trade. The Browns every god damn time. So far Houston/Philly would never want to undo those trades to move up for QB's.

Brandon Weeden was drafted in round 1 at 28 purely because of Justin Blackmon.

Idk about waste of talent ever but he's def on the few guys on the what if list. What if Leaf didn't have major mental issues, what if Blackmon could lay off the drink. It's a short list of what if guys I'm convinced they'd have been hall of famers otherwise.

I mean the Rams obviously won the RG3 trade in hindsight (Ogletree > nothing) & this is a hindsight argument because that's what FW decided to make it by saying these trades never work out better for the team trading down.

Obviously every circumstance is different. This hypothetical situation where Browns give Cousins a huge contract, they would be dumb af not to let a QB-thirsty team overpay to move up for 1 or both of their picks, even if it's just a deal like the Bears/49ers deal last year. The value will be way too big to pass up rationally. The counter to that argument is apparently that trading down never works.

I loved JBlax - made sure I got him on all my Dynasty teams. Oops.

Eh, Wadsworth had a promising rookie season, then played through knee injuries and had to have microfracture surgery which basically killed his career. It's not like Leaf who was not even accurate in college and obviously didn't have the mental makeup but hey he was a 6'5" white guy with a cannon.

This dude's story was pretty heartbreaking too



Never played a day in the NBA. 2nd overall pick.

Randomly came across the Saints onside kick in the Super Bowl. Colts player had it in his arms and fumbles it to the Saints. Yet it goes down as an amazing play call.

yep GOATrodgers to GOATdiggs XVIIIRINGSPARTYBOAT

It was an amazing call; the execution was mediocre (which is why a Colts player almost got it) but it worked out anyway. The reason it was an amazing call is that the Colts' front line of blockers was a full 15 yards off the ball before the snap, leaving a ton of extra room for the Saints to get to the ball first, in addition to whatever reaction time it took for the Colts to realize an onside was happening.

No, I said it hasn't worked out for the Browns to date and that I couldn't think of many examples in recent years outside of the Rams with Ogletree and Jenkins vs Bob Griffin where the trade down was clearly better. I did think of the Titans but figured it was too early to really tell with that one given Davis has been injured

I'll have a look at the others later, albeit I definitely think the Falcons would still feel they got more value from the Julio trade but I stand by my point that if there are two Miles Garrett level generational players at the top of the draft, I would be happy for/with the Browns if they took them

Pretty sure the onside was FPS play bad get there

Titans traded down for more picks and got a RT that was a first team All-Pro his rookie season, safe to say trading down worked out pretty damn well.

And you said blue chipper, not Miles Garrett level generational players. Oh wait, that was your second post - the first one said Fitzpatrick and Chubb are on the level of Garrett. Don't watch a ton of college ball but even I know that's absurd