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Old 01-11-2018, 08:07 PM   #1
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Spade NFL Offseason 2018

Here's our NFL 2018 Offseason Thread.

Lots of intrigue
- who coaches the Giants, Colts, Cardinals and Lions?
- do any more coaches retire/get fired between now and the Super Bowl?
- which QBs emerge at the top of the draft?
- how can those Browns squander all this draft capital
- what do the Vikings do with their QB situation?
- which FAs are gonna get paid?

Top 25 FAs below (according to NFL.com)

1

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB
49ers

Now that 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan had a franchise quarterback fall in their laps, there is no chance they will let Jimmy GQ get away. He seems likely to get the franchise tag as a gateway to a long-term deal, which could make him one of the sport's highest-paid players after only seven career starts.
2

Kirk Cousins

QB
Redskins
Washington GM Bruce Allen will make the first move in answering the biggest question of this offseason: Will the Redskins allow Cousins to reset the QB market as a free agent?
3

Drew Brees

QB
Saints
It's hard to imagine Brees going anywhere after such a successful season in New Orleans, although his contract will be complicated, considering his age (39 on Jan. 15) and legendary franchise status. It's worth noting that Brees found his last protracted contract talks in 2012 " extremely frustrating" before he missed OTAs and mandatory minicamp.
4

Le'Veon Bell

RB
Steelers

After loading Bell up with 406 touches in the regular season, it's theoretically possible Pittsburgh will let Bell walk away like the Cowboys did with DeMarco Murray a few years back. Tagging Bell again at the price of $14.54 million makes more sense.
5

Demarcus Lawrence

DE
Cowboys

The 25-year-old timed his career season just right. There's no chance the Cowboys will allow the breakout pass rusher to leave, so a franchise tag appears likely here.
6

Allen Robinson

WR
Jaguars

He's coming off a torn ACL, but Robinson had already established himself as one of the best young receivers in football before the injury. Considering how much money the Jaguars have spent on the defense, it would make no sense for them to let an offensive cornerstone get away.
7

Teddy Bridgewater

QB
Vikings

The Minnesota front office knows so much more than any other team about Bridgewater's skill set, makeup and health. That's why a short-term deal to stay in Minnesota makes the most sense for a player who still has the high ceiling of a franchise quarterback, but who carries plenty of risk, too.
8

Sheldon Richardson

DT
Seahawks
Seattle gave up a second-round pick to acquire Richardson in a win-now move. It will be telling to see if the Seahawks try to keep him after a good, not great, season. It's a little worrisome that Richardson's best play came way back in 2014.
9

Ezekiel Ansah

DE
Lions

He would have been better off hitting free agency before two injury-plagued years, but Ansah is still a strong every-down starter at a position with few quality options in free agency.
10

Jarvis Landry

WR
Dolphins

Only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have caught more passes than Landry since the LSU product entered the league in 2014. He doesn't have the downfield chops to earn No. 1 receiver money, but a difference-maker in the slot is still plenty worthy, and it sounds like the Dolphins might be ready to say goodbye.
11

Sammy Watkins

WR
Rams

For all the potential here, Watkins has only produced 1,023 yards over the last two years combined. Jared Goff looked to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp more often than he did to Watkins, but the Rams might use the franchise tag on the 24-year-old to see if they can get more out of him after a full offseason of work.
12

Lamarcus Joyner

DB
Rams

Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips knew just how to maximize Joyner as a safety/cornerback hybrid who loves to hit and can cover the slot. There are a lot of teams looking for a player just like Joyner, and the Rams have a long to-do list this offseason. Speaking of which ...
13

Trumaine Johnson

CB
Rams

The best cornerback on one of the best teams in football often traveled with the opposition's best receiver. Johnson is just the type of quality starter/sub- Pro Bowl player who often gets paid like a superstar in free agency.
14

Case Keenum

QB
Vikings

Keenum was available for nearly a month during free agency last year, settling for a $2 million deal to be Sam Bradford's backup in Minnesota. Now he's set to make life-changing money as a starting quarterback, whether it's with the Vikings or elsewhere.
15

Andrew Norwell

OG
Panthers

An undrafted player in 2014, Norwell has been a rock-solid starter for three years before elevating his play to All-Pro status in 2017. (He remains so under-the-radar that he was lost in the shuffle on the original version of this list.) In a league awash with offensive-line issues, he's as safe a free agent bet as it gets and will get paid accordingly.
16

Malcolm Butler

CB
Patriots

A hanging contract situation and the arrival of Stephon Gilmore has loomed over Butler's worst season as a starter, but he still plays the position with rare tenacity. It sure looks like Bill Belichick will let Butler's storybook career go elsewhere.
17

Dontari Poe

DT
Falcons

Unhappy with the offers in last year's market, Poe settled for a one-year "prove-it" deal. He proved he's a quality rotational player, but probably not worth the top-notch deal he's looking for.
18

Dion Lewis

RB
Patriots

He was one of the five best running backs in football in December, showing surprising power and rare ability to make defenders miss every snap. Durability questions, however, make him a risky bet.
19

Justin Pugh

G
Giants

Rock-solid starting guards with the flexibility to play tackle make a lot of money in free agency.
20

Nate Solder

T
Patriots

Tom Brady's blind-side protector is probably a league-average starting left tackle, which will be worth plenty to some. His leadership and athleticism are both plusses, but the Patriots might not want to give him big money entering his age-30 season.
21

Sam Bradford

QB
Vikings

This is a cop-out ranking, either way. Too optimistic about Bradford's health or a little low, considering the value of a league-average starting quarterback. No one seems to know if his knees can withstand the rigors of another full season.
22

Star Lotulelei

DT
Panthers

He hasn't quite lived up to his billing as a dominant run-stuffer, but there are only so many humans his size with his playing experience.
23

Bashaud Breeland

CB
Redskins

Breeland is not as steady as teams want a No. 1 cornerback to be, but his top-end ability will tempt some team to spend big money.
24

Morgan Burnett

S
Packers

A reliable starting safety whose value often was best seen when he was out of the lineup for Green Bay.
25

Carlos Hyde

RB
49ers

Given Hyde's creativity and versatility as a runner and receiver, it's not a great sign that he was so uneven under 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.
Notable omissions (in alphabetical order):

Nigel Bradham, LB, Eagles
Vontae Davis, CB, free agent
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks
Brent Grimes, CB, Buccaneers
Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars
Jordan Matthews, WR, Bills
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings
Julius Peppers, DE, Panthers
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins
Eric Reid, S, 49ers
Weston Richburg, C, Giants
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Saints
Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens
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Old 01-11-2018, 08:08 PM   #2
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Lol panthers
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Old 01-11-2018, 08:12 PM   #3
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Following on from the Bell contract situation in old thread:

So by this account paying a wide receiver to be thrown to by Landry Jones must be even worse than signing an RB.

I'd argue they do want to pay him 50% more than Freeman. RB is in a unique situation right now where almost all the good ones are still on their rookie deals, so there won't be massive RB contracts handed out until those guys are heading into their final years, and they will likely be paid accordingly and well above what Freeman's earning.

Look at the top 10 running back contracts by average amount per year right now - it includes Martin, Ivory and Bernard. Gurley, Gordon, Ingram and Johnson are UFA in 2019 as well, so RB contracts are going to up at that point. Better to get it now than wait for those guys to sign good deals and have to pay even more than that
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Old 01-11-2018, 08:44 PM   #4
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

I mean, the worse your QB is, the less valuable a good WR is & the more valuable a good RB/dump off option is.

Here's some true, but somewhat misleading Antonio Brown stats I'm utilizing to prove my point:

Over the past 3 years, if you prorate out a 16 game season for Antonio Brown with & without Roethlisberger:

With Ben:
128/1,684/12

Without Ben:
77/1,091/0
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Old 01-11-2018, 08:54 PM   #5
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

& just for fun, here's the same stat over the past 5 years for Jordy Nelson with & without ARod:

With ARod:
92/1,324/16

Without ARod:
61/641/1
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Old 01-11-2018, 09:12 PM   #6
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

my point re Jones was also about 2019 and particularly 2020 when Bell will most likely be declining and Rape will most likely be gone and in reference to the report that Bell last offseason declined a front loaded contract that would have paid him $30m in yrs 1 and 2

his floor is higher now and if he was turning down $30m guaranteed then, he's most likely going to be rejecting anything sub $40m now, when he knows he's definitely getting 14.5 for 2018. paying Bell $14-15m per in 2019 and 2020 when Rape has probably retired seems bad,

in terms of comparables, the closer fit to Bell is Shady. Over the last two years, Bell's volume is higher (he averages about 30 yards per game more) albeit their yards and TDs per touch/carry are the same. Paying Bell $14m per would be a 75% premium on Shady's average

either way, I love him and don't particularly enjoy arguing the other side vs him and he's got a lot of leverage right now, so more power to him. I just don't think the Stillers will pay him what he wants, so if he's gonna dig his heels in, my guess is 1 more tag and then they let him go, albeit they could conceivably tag him 2x more and still pay him less than he might be asking for years 1 and 2 in a long term deal

there's also the drug thing - one more badly timed puff/mised drug test away from a 16 game suspension and the cap provides perfect financial security for the team vs that
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Old 01-11-2018, 09:21 PM   #7
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

god damn the franchise tag is terrible. LOL NFLPA as usual but also kills excitement for fans.
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Old 01-11-2018, 09:40 PM   #8
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

I hope the Niners swing for a couple of things this offseason

1) SIGN JIMMAY--Franchise or whatever, we need him
2) Look for a WR in the draft or FA--I like Goodwin as a #3 and Garcon as a #2 but I don't love either in the RZ
3) I wouldn't find replacing Hyde
4) Upgrade CB and potentially LB'er--they have Malcolm Smith coming back from injury
5) Upgrade/get better backups at OL
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Old 01-11-2018, 09:54 PM   #9
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8bus View Post
Lol panthers
only way to follow up norv is another complete whiff in the draft then some russell shepard level additions
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:30 PM   #10
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

inb4 Hurney snatches Bell off the franchise tag for 2 1sts and pays him $60M guaranteed on a 5 year $100M+ contract.
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Old 01-11-2018, 11:11 PM   #11
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NFL Offseason 2018

Pats keep McDaniels and trade Bellicheck to the Browns for #1 and #4. Give BB 5 years $20m per

Browns trade for Smiff with 33,

Pats take Darnold at 1 to be QB of future and take best defence at 4.

How many games do Browns win?

Can Pats win it all without BB?

Internet might explode

Last edited by feel wrath; 01-11-2018 at 11:19 PM.
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Old 01-11-2018, 11:40 PM   #12
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Gruden went for 2 x 1st rounders , 2 x 2nd + $8M cash money

Pretty sure BB won't be traded for less than #1, #4, 2019 1st+2nd, 2020 1st+2nd providing he'd agree to coach Browns with zero picks in the next 3 drafts.

Also, $20M is a joke when Saban makes 11, give him 50 imo then it might happen
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Old 01-11-2018, 11:44 PM   #13
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Gruden was a different era, lol if that ever happens again - especially for a 65 year old
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Old 01-12-2018, 01:15 AM   #14
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

BB refused to coach the Jets; he's not gonna go coach the Browns again.
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Old 01-12-2018, 01:24 AM   #15
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Think the last coach trade was Herm in 2006? Jets only got a 4th rounder. anyway the HC trades the decade before that.

Parcells pats to Jets for 1st,2nd,3rd,4th (across 3 drafts)
BB Jets to Pats for 16th overall in 2000 and 4th 7th in 2001 to the Jets for a 2001 5th, 2002 7th.
Gruden (above somewhere)
Holmgren (well sort of, holmgren quit then seattle signed him and the NFL made Seattle send a 2nd rd to GB)

Might be the whole list.
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Old 01-12-2018, 01:42 AM   #16
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Panthers doing a ton of coaching interviews

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Old 01-12-2018, 01:45 AM   #17
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

I'm not expecting it to happen (although it would be awesome) but was asking how many wins we'd think the Browns would get with BB and Smith and some decent money spent in FA

without viewing the schedule I'd probably put the over/under at 9.5 and think most people would take the over.

I do think it would be tough for Kraft to say no to the trade tho if a) he rates Josh and b) the relationship with BB is fraying/broken.

of course BB wouldn't do it unless he was in full FU mode and the money was too big to turn down.
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Old 01-12-2018, 02:03 AM   #18
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

I'd take under - the schedule is pretty brutal (NFC South + AFC West). Smith + BB is best case scenario (aside from KIRK) and even then don't think they sniff 10 wins.

Home: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets

Away: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Oakland, Denver, Houston

Absolute best case I'd say wins home vs Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Jets. Wins away vs Ravens, Bengals, Bucs, Broncos.

Last edited by bazooka87; 01-12-2018 at 02:08 AM.
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Old 01-12-2018, 07:03 AM   #19
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Steve Wilks now the favorite to be the Giants HC.

Seems like a pretty meh hiring. One year of coordinating experience, albeit a good one, isn't all that inspirational.
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Old 01-12-2018, 09:20 AM   #20
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
my point re Jones was also about 2019 and particularly 2020 when Bell will most likely be declining
Slow down. Bell isn't even 26 yet. Running backs decline early, but it's more like 30, not 27.

I'd feel comfortable giving Bell four years, though I haven't looked at any of the relevant financials to determine how much I'd pay.
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Old 01-12-2018, 12:53 PM   #21
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Dennison out as OC in Buffalo.

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Old 01-12-2018, 01:47 PM   #22
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Solid Steelers strategy of using an elite RB as much as possible, not give him a long term deal, then throw him in trash can once he falls off.
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Old 01-12-2018, 02:17 PM   #23
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Reports say Bills probably replacing him with CHUD or McCoy.

My favorite news from this morning, though:

Quote:
Ian Rapoport reports that Matt Rhule has informed the Colts that he’s returning to Baylor.
Dude was 1-11 @ Baylor last year. Prior to his one year at Baylor, his biggest coaching job was at Temple. He has never coached in the NFL (except 2012 as the Giants OLC)...& yet he somehow gets interviewed for an NFL head coach job...& tells the team he's not interested.

Obviously just trying to get out ahead of it, but it's pretty funny.
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Old 01-12-2018, 06:30 PM   #24
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Thomas David to retire after 2018. Times announcement to try to ward off salary reduction imo
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Old 01-12-2018, 07:46 PM   #25
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Re: NFL Offseason 2018

Wilks out of the Giants HC race after all.

Down to Patricia, McDaniels, and Shurmur. Shurmur will only come if Case Keenum comes with him (lol no). Patricia is more heavily linked to the Lions. So I guess the Giants will run their team even more by hiring McDaniels.
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