Quote:
Originally Posted by VincentVega
film on prescott, he will have quite a regression....still wouldn't even consider betting the under there
He had such a hot rookie season statistically that some regression is likely, but how much makes sense? They were the lowest pass percentage team in the NFL last year and I don't expect they'll be trying too hard to change that if they can help it. They were already moving in this direction with Romo in back in 2014, which worked once they had a line and a real running threat to take some weight off, both of which are even better now.
I'm sure the tape already shows vulnerabilities but being able to exploit them is something else, his protection (incl from Zeke) is solid and has solid short targets that get open quickly, and he's mobile. I just don't know there's a magic bullet for Dak scheme-wise, but instead his biggest regression threat is their own defense, which is (as usual) a liability.
They quietly landed 2 serviceable defensive starters from last years' draft with a couple more (including Jaylon Smith) yet to play from that class,
if they recover from their injuries. And they loaded up on defensive picks this year too...
But for 2017 they're deep in a rebuilding process and don't really have any studs outside of Sean Lee (when healthy), and Byron Jones is pretty good. The rest are a mix of super-young guys they hope to develop and some JAG free agents. They lost a ton of experience in the secondary between Carr, Claiborne, Church and Wilcox going even if a sensible move for the long-term.
If I had to guess at their defensive starting lineup today, it would look like this:
RDE: Taco Charlton*
DT: Maliek Collins
DT: Tyrone Crawford or
LDE: Tapper*? Lawrence? an actual taco?
WLB: Sean Lee
MLB: Jaylon Smith*, Anthony Hitchens
SLB: Damien Wilson
CB: Orlando Scandrick
CB: Nolan Carroll, Anthony Brown or Chidobe Awuzie*
SCB: Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis*, or
FS: Byron Jones
SS: Awuzie*, Jeff Heath*, Robert Blanton, Kavon Frazier*
*0-1 NFL starts
So I think the biggest regression threat (obv after injury, or injuries to Zeke or the line) is Dak finding himself more often in situations where the team is behind on the scoreboard. He was good in 4th quarters but Dallas was never blown out with Dak starting - his 3 losses incl playoffs were all by 1-3 points and he was good in one of those, with another being his 1st NFL game. That's pretty unlikely to happen again.
I definitely wouldn't touch the under either though. Not after winning 13 of 15 meaningful reg season games and with the same offense coming back, even if they were pretty healthy last year.