Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
More than the money necessarily, I just think it's a particularly good draft, especially at cornerback. Also think there's a decent chance you could wait a year for Butler to become unrestricted and then get both anyway. A 2018 2nd I might be willing to live with, but 42 is a great value spot generally I think (IIRC most teams have about 20-25 first rounders and then the next tier on their board runs to about 40, which means you can get close to the same value as a late 1st with that pick if things fall right).
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I just disagree with lookng at it this way. I ranted about this wrt fantasy baseball years ago (lol) but the whole idea of tiers creates false precision when none is needed.
pick 29 is just a bit worse than 28, which is just a bit worse than 27, etc - there is no need to think about it tiers, and whatever teams have for "first round grades" is basically useless bc consensus top 5 guys are far different than consensus 20-25 guys.
I think it's far more simple and accurate to just look at picks as a slope:
where there is a steep drop at first that gradually flattens out. looking at it that way, the idea of a "first round grade" becomes silly, bc where is that? you can see that as every pick goes, the projection just gets slightly worse (but the degree of difference between picks decreases as the draft goes on)
and I know we've talked about projection accuracy before, but I think you're more likely to make a mistake once you start to grade drafts deep at a specific position, etc. you're doubling down on what's largely a guess - far safer to acknowledge you're guessing and just look at historical averages. what's the #42 pick normally worth? use that instead of what you think the #42 pick will be worth this year at a specific position - that's how you get yourself into trouble
Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 03-18-2017 at 11:03 AM.