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Old 12-15-2009, 02:24 AM   #1
Tilt-N-Spew
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NFL late game decision

I was watching the Cardinals/49ers game with some friends this evening and got into a strategy debate.

A few minutes into the 4th quarter the Cards found themselves down by 15 points. Knowing that they needed to at least two touchdowns (including one with a two point conversion).. would you go for the 2 points on the first touchdown?.. or just kick the extra point and wait for a second TD?

I found myself alone when I said that going for two right away would be the optimal call. I was curious what everyone else thinks and why?
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Old 12-15-2009, 02:25 AM   #2
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Re: NFL late game decision

Go for 2 obv.
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Old 12-15-2009, 02:26 AM   #3
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Re: NFL late game decision

yes go for two first is the best decision so if you miss it you know you still need two scores and can manage the time better, but obv the common sense and +job EV play is kick first
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:24 AM   #4
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Re: NFL late game decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgojackets View Post
yes go for two first is the best decision so if you miss it you know you still need two scores and can manage the time better, but obv the common sense and +job EV play is kick first
If you go and miss the other team can adjust their strategy just as much if not more than you can.
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:31 AM   #5
Riverman
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Re: NFL late game decision

It actually does depend on a lot of stuff, but all things being = going for two is correct.
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:32 AM   #6
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Re: NFL late game decision

I feel like this is a tarp OP.

But I would still kick the XP first, cause if we go for it and miss the first time, now we are down two scores with very little time left and the players would be more deflated (possibly subconciously causing them to not play as hard as they would knowing they only need one TD and they have a much more realistic chance of still tying/eventually winning the game.)
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:35 AM   #7
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Re: NFL late game decision

You kick first.
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Old 12-15-2009, 07:58 AM   #8
Assani Fisher
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Arrow Re: NFL late game decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan View Post
If you go and miss the other team can adjust their strategy just as much if not more than you can.
Their strategy will basically be the same either way: Run a lot of low variance run plays designed mostly to use up the clock. Your strategy will change drastically however based upon this info, so the info is more valuable to you.
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Old 12-15-2009, 08:31 AM   #9
ShortstackMack
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Re: NFL late game decision

yea im pretty sure going for two is the optimal strategy
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Old 12-15-2009, 11:16 AM   #10
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Re: NFL late game decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan View Post
If you go and miss the other team can adjust their strategy just as much if not more than you can.
The leading team strategy whether up one score or two is essentially the same - run out clock, stop other team from scoring. The trailing team strategy and time management would be extremely different when trailing by one score or two. Going for two AINEC.
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Old 12-15-2009, 11:20 AM   #11
Jimmy Proffett
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Re: NFL late game decision

You line up for the extra point and fake it ldo.
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Old 12-15-2009, 02:02 PM   #12
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Re: NFL late game decision

This has been debated several times here. The majority of people here would go for 2 first.

90%+ of NFL coaches would kick the XP first. I think Whisenhunt would have gone for 2, but only because his kicker seemed to be hurt. With a healthy Rackers, I can't imagine he'd go for 2.
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Old 12-15-2009, 04:02 PM   #13
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Re: NFL late game decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by snuadg View Post
I feel like this is a tarp OP.

But I would still kick the XP first, cause if we go for it and miss the first time, now we are down two scores with very little time left and the players would be more deflated (possibly subconciously causing them to not play as hard as they would knowing they only need one TD and they have a much more realistic chance of still tying/eventually winning the game.)
this. Football players aren't robots. Player morale matters in real life.
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