Small nit but I don't know how you can say SF is better than LAC.

Herbert and those receivers vs Jimmy G and friends is a gulf.

Agree, Ravens just seem screwed with injuries. Have lost so many blue chip caliber players at this point between injuries/FA defections/guys getting old on D. 4th best odds to win AFC seems like a joke, I have a hard time fathoming them playing in the SB.

I'm not even gonna do NFC tiers this week cause it would just be the same as last week, although both Minnesota and SF being sneaky wildcard teams has taken a hit because of injuries/poor play. Vikes in general seem like they are getting screwed fast. I grabbed Pitt +3.5 TNF already. I'd just put WFT/Phi in the Minn/SF tier with Minn at the bottom.

AFC is more fluid

KC
NE

Buff (7-5 is weak with their schedule but 4 1 score losses that could've gone either way, not gonna rip them too much. )
Titans
Colts

Chargers
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens (Humphrey seems like the final straw for that pass D, Jimmy Smith getting old, pass rush taking a hit with no Judon which matters more now since their secondary is dust)


Raiders
Browns
Dolphins
Broncos

Bc the Chargers can't stop the run ...

+1 having Bills still ahead of the Pats is just laughable takes ...

It's Group Think - a couple prominent Twitter people said "we learned nothing from this game" and we've got people aping that.

Running into a 10 man box for 5.2 yards a pop seems like valuable intel, especially with the Patriots being top 10 in yards per play action, too. They were 24th last year.

qft. dfl in defense rush dvoa.

that said, just posted their best defense rush dvoa (-38.1%) of the season @ CIN.

What other Vikings injuries took place? As I typed that I remember Thielen got an ankle sprain. But Cook might be back as soon as next week, and it looks like Patrick Peterson is back for Thursday night. I like the Vikings and the over.

Ravens probably softest secondary in the league now, and were arguable bottom 3-5 with Humphrey still in. You can't really survive losing your two All-Pro corners and starting free safety. Not to mention your All-Pro left tackle, and top three running backs, and numerous others. Blah blah blah I'm sad. Watching every team pick apart Anthony Averett every week has been getting old, while the o-line provides zero protection for Lamar and d-line can't get any pass rush.

This, Pats told them exactly what they were doing and ran all over them anyway. And people just want to ignore that?

I still do find it pretty hilarious that all the Mac Jones nuthuggers are making excuses for why he never threw the ball, "BB is a genius and knew that running was the way to win" Completely forgetting that Mr 2-yard pass wasn't allowed to throw the ball in a super important game.

Seems like Josh won the game then, eh?

if it were so easy to throw why did Allen go 50%? maybe should have strategized more. oh wait, buffalo gonna buffalo. lol you.

Allen going 50% (with not all passes being checkdowns) was incredibly impressive.

He wasn't allowed to throw the ball because unless you have a cannon (like Allen, and even his passes were drastically affected) you'd have almost no control where the ball was going. I have no idea how you could use last night as any sort of indictment on Jones

Agreed, I think he played about as well as you could expect.

using g-bebe's rankings, the 14 Chargers finish
vs 28 Giants
vs 4 Chiefs
@ 31 Texans
vs 20 Broncos
@ 19 Raiders

holding the Bungles to 25/96 rushing and Mixon to 19/54 is impressive on paper, but the Bungles running 16 plays on their first four drives (5 Mixon runs + another removed via penalty) and going fumble-int-punt-punt and finding themselves down 24-0 five minutes into the 2Q changed their run/pass strat.

Yup, I learned quite a bit lol ...

Let me guess you also think Justin Fields is good ? Lol

No it wasn't ... his only points came bc of a punt muff lol

What a bizarre strawman. What excuses are you seeing? I think everyone on Earth understands why they ran it: Belichick thought running it was more effective than passing.

Everyone knows Josh Allen is better than Mac Jones. Jones is a 23 year old rookie, Allen is a 25 year old former MVP candidate in his 4th season.

Patriots averaged 5.2 yards a run (taking out Jones' kneel downs).

Bills averaged 4.5 yards per Josh Allen drop back (I subtracted 5 yards for one designed run, I think the rest of his attempts were scrambles).

Buffalo seriously needs a RB. 69 yards on 19 attempts from that trio just isn't going to cut it in games like this or in the postseason. Pretty ridiculous in a one score game where the other team ran 46x for 222 yards, Allen was the leading rusher with 39 and the team as a whole doesn't even hit 100 yards.

They haven’t had a decent RB since old man Fred Jackson retired.

Maybe Thurman can come back, he looks in pretty good shape and can’t be worse than this current stock.

I think the Pats should be ahead of the Bills at this point. I think the Cowboys should be behind both teams. Anyone who watched Bills, Saints on Thanksgiving and then the Cowboys, Saints the following Thursday would agree.

I arrived independently at that opinion by the 2nd quarter last night (and I'm a Patriots fan, although an objective one)

Swirling winds creating outlier game conditions, lot of drops, NE 1 long run was their only TD, Bills only TD was off a special teams play, some weird coaching...Just a weird game that I don't think means too much in the grand scheme of the intrinsic value of the two teams. However, it certainly means NE increased their division winning probability from like 45% to 70% as well as #1 seed equity and the Bills are now possibly going to have to fight just to make the playoffs which is the most important thing to come out of the game.

It is interesting because as analytics has become more and more prominent in football, it is all about passing the ball and stopping the pass. This is how both the Chiefs and Bills built their teams, well then other teams like Tenn/Indy/NE have come along and zigged while others zag by putting a ton of resources into OL and having RB's that can be a problem for these light boxes/smaller LB's.

Maybe we're coming into an era of football where it is more heterogeneity stylistically as far as who competes year in and year out and the Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers era of top QB's being on contending teams is coming to an end with the gap in QB play narrowing.

Just a thought, but I definitely think Belichick building a mauling run blocking line at a time when everyone else went the other way was certainly somewhat intentional. I like the NFL (and NBA as well) more when there are more ways to skin a cat.