NFC Divisional Round: New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers (Sat, 1:30 PM) - Page 3 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

saints 37.6 PPG home, 27.3 PPG away

unless the defense collapses or the 9ers constantly turn the ball over, i'd say under 27 from the saints is a lock

the over under is 47.5 and NO is favored by 3.....

under 27 is probably 55/45

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01-08-2012 , 07:37 AM

#52

kevin21

SE Spokesman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 62,020

Saints played 11 indoor games in reg season, averaged 38 ppg in them. Averaged 23.8 ppg in last four outdoor games.

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01-08-2012 , 07:50 AM

#53

StewiesMinion

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by prohornblower

What a strange game this will be.

Mediocre offense + great defense versus historically good offense + horrific defense.

Saints
Offense: #3
Defense: #22

San Fran
Offense: #18
Defense: #8

according to Advanced NFL Stats

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01-08-2012 , 08:00 AM

#54

sublime

Mr. Roper

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 22,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by StewiesMinion

Saints
Offense: #3
Defense: #22

San Fran
Offense: #18
Defense: #8

according to Advanced NFL Stats

gaps are wider using football outsiders.

fwiw, after a few years of looking at both rating systems on a weekly basis, i think FO is the better of the two. ANS i like to read for the EV of field position and the like.

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01-08-2012 , 08:04 AM

#55

sublime

Mr. Roper

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 22,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevin21

Saints played 11 indoor games in reg season, averaged 38 ppg in them. Averaged 23.8 ppg in last four outdoor games.

sample size.

i mean im aware of the fact the NO is far superior at home...that doesn't change the fact the pinnacle is suggesting the final score will be something like 26-22 (on average). when the sharp prediction of the final score is 26...thinking of <27 as anything more than 'a small favorite to occur' is silly.

i say this quite often, but if you want cutting edge football opinions, the best place to look is here

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01-08-2012 , 08:48 AM

#56

kevin21

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 62,020

I was just posting that from a twitter link.

I can see the Niners slowing the Saints offense down for maybe the first half of the game but will the Niners offense give the Defense enough time to rest to be able to do it for a full game and can they put up the points needed to beat the Saints? That is the doubt in my mind, I just don't know if they can.

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01-08-2012 , 09:04 AM

#57

sublime

Mr. Roper

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 22,522

should be a good game, div round usually is.

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01-08-2012 , 09:39 AM

#58

bigdottawa

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I do have some faith in the 49ers defence, but a couple long DPIs, a few lol Niners red zone offence, and this game will be easy for the Saints.

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01-08-2012 , 09:40 AM

#59

Zeth

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Again, the good news for the 49ers red zone offense is, they're playing the Saints.

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01-08-2012 , 09:46 AM

#60

AGx19

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saints such free money. niners finna get murked.

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01-08-2012 , 10:00 AM

#61

capone0

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AGx19

saints such free money. niners finna get murked.

Cause the Saints have been so outstanding out side their dome and on grass this year........meh.

23-10 vs Jacksonville W
30-27 vs Carolina W
20-26 vs TB L
34-42 vs GB L
22-17 vs TN W

If the game was at NO, I wouldn't think the 9ers would have any chance. Since it's on the road on the West Coast, the 9ers have a great chance and could definitely win.

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01-08-2012 , 10:08 AM

#62

AGx19

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we'll see what u have to say after they drop a 40 pack on your ass

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01-08-2012 , 10:10 AM

#63

capone0

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you got it. cause obviously NO dropped a 40 spot outside a dome this year and against a really good D.

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01-08-2012 , 10:20 AM

#64

BASaint

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nath

Saints 23, 49ers 13 is my first guess. It feels wrong somehow, though.

I think you're underrating what is at worst an average 9ers offense. They move it consistently, just haven't been finishing drives off. If they can connect on some red zone passes the Saints might be in trouble.

Think i'm taking 9ers outright at +170

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01-08-2012 , 10:21 AM

#65

Zeth

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I also am thinking the 49ers moneyline is pretty good value. I think they're at least 50%, maybe more like 60% to win. Going to wait, though, I expect the line to move toward the Saints.

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01-08-2012 , 10:27 AM

#66

BASaint

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i think 50-60 is over-egging their chances but i'm fairly confident they are somewhere above the 36% implied by +170

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01-08-2012 , 11:19 AM

#67

Riverman

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gg niners, nice season, thanks for coming out, saints packers game is gonna be epic

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01-08-2012 , 11:20 AM

#68

capone0

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We've already seen the Packers-Saints game and we know how it ended.

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01-08-2012 , 11:25 AM

#69

Zeth

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Thinking the Saints are going to go outside their dome and to Lambeau Field where it'll be 15 degrees at kickoff and have anything more than a very small chance to beat the Packers is pretty lol.

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01-08-2012 , 11:26 AM

#70

Riverman

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cold weather doesn't hurt passing yo, also packers have no running game either

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01-08-2012 , 11:27 AM

#71

Zeth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

cold weather doesn't hurt passing yo, also packers have no running game either

The Saints are basically the same as the Lions, but better; the Packers are basically the same as the Saints, but better.

It doesn't have much to do with cold weather hurting passing (which it doesn't unless it's Ice Bowl cold) and more to do with the Saints playing most of their games in domes and not being ready for extreme-cold conditions at all.

But mostly it has to do with the Packers are at home and really ****ing good.

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01-08-2012 , 12:23 PM

#72

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Saints with a key road game on the grass in the playoffs... I've seen this one before.

As much as I dislike Harbuagh and FGkicking Niners, think they win.

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01-08-2012 , 02:18 PM

#73

wizardplow

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,169

Quote:

Originally Posted by StewiesMinion

Saints
Offense: #3
Defense: #22

San Fran
Offense: #18
Defense: #8

according to Advanced NFL Stats

This is pretty misleading. The Saints offense is historically megaelite. GB and NE might arguably be better, but the Saints are still ~top5ish OAT and they are obv #1 in bulk stats OAT.

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01-08-2012 , 02:49 PM

#74

drew13800

adept

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 922

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeth

Rodgers has never played a home play off game ever..the packers defense was absolutely abysmal in their only cold game this season..the cold aspect is completely overrated

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01-08-2012 , 02:54 PM

#75

drew13800

adept

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 922

The 49ers biggest strength is their pass rush..which is also the saints biggest strength the O-Line..they have 2 of the best o-line in the league...the Saints gave up the 2nd to least sacks all year by 1...it's going to be a great matchup

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