Asu and Utah aren't good enough to win out so they don't count :P

If we are talking literally controlling their own destiny. That is, win out and you are 100% in, is this list wrong?

group 1. FSU winning out

group 2. any of MSST, Ole Miss, Auburn, Bama, or Georgia winning out

group 3. any of Oregon, Arizona, Utah winning out

doesn't any other team in the nation need help to be 100% in.

If Bama or Auburn win out but their MS victor also wins out then they could be left outta be playoffs

So not 100% in their hands, but given they are both top 5 and have to beat a MS to win out, they'll def be top 4 in polls and "should" be taken, but not 100%

Sounds like an interesting simulation question

I still hold out hope that Nebraska can win out and bink a bid. There's like a 2% chance.

There is no chance on God's Green Earth that 12-1 ASU goes over 12-1 Notre Dame or 12-1 Ohio State.

They need to sell tickets to this ****. 2 neutral site games a week apart, the second one where you only have a few days notice?

Winning out is the hard part... do it and the binking is probably pretty likely.

Yeah...@Wisconsin and B1GCCG against MSU/tOSU will take a lot of good variance to get through. Other than that the toughest game is...@Iowa?

This is correct. Your playoff equity needs to sum 400%. There are only 3 "control their own destiny" teams in the tier above UGA, and if UGA wins out they guarantee that only 1 of those is also undefeated.

Is there a scenario where 1 loss UGA is ranked 5th? No. So they control their own destiny. That's not true of Alabama or Auburn, it's theoretically possibly for Auburn/Alabama to win out, lose the tiebreaker to the Mississippi team they already lost to and by some reasonable logic get left out.

12-1 asu goes over 12-1 tosu almost always, 99.7%

The other two play each other

Nice catch, somehow I hadn't noticed this when I first saw his post. Yeah, there is a confirmed zero percent chance that 12-1 ASU gets into the playoff at the expense of 11-1 Notre Dame. Also a zero percent chance of 11-1 Notre Dame getting in at the expense of a 12-1 ASU.

And while we're at it, there's also a zero percent chance of Notre Dame being 12-1.

predicting goofball gets no sleep tonight...lol

Logic? Yes. Reasonable? No.

The SEC has some extremely favorable bowl ties.

My theory is that a lot of ESPN's content they buy from non-employee journalists. These journalists know that if they don't write the articles Mickey wants to hear then their own phone will stop ringing.

Actually using Sagarin Predictor alone it spits back roughly a 12% chance of going undefeated.

Opponent N-Sag Opp-Sag HFA Spread Win Prob
Rutgers 85.08 66.78 3.39 21.69 0.90
Purdue 85.08 66.06 3.39 22.41 0.90
Wisconsin 85.08 80.77 -3.39 0.92 0.50
Minnesota 85.08 73.87 3.39 14.6 0.83
Iowa 85.08 74.55 -3.39 7.14 0.72
MSU/tOSU 85.08 86.84 0 1.76 0.50

0.12

This was just estimated using BJJ's method and the smaller spreads were just put in as 50/50 games. I didn't bother calculating MSU/tOSU's chances of winning the B1G since their predictor values were extremely close as it is, so any difference is pretty negligible, so just averaged the two and rolled with it.

OBAMA_HOPE.JPG

If ND beats the eventual PAC champion then it is possible we nudge out a non-Oregon 1 loss PAC team. But probably the committee says "ND already had their chance and they coached an illegal play." Of all conferences the PAC has the most representatives to start off.

edit: of course I think BJJ showed if ND beats the eventual PAC champion then there probably are no other 1 loss PAC teams.

Well, 12-1 ASU will have beaten Notre Dame, so they're out of it.

It's obviously a super unlikely occurrence, but I'll bet any sum of money that IF both ASU and Ohio State go 12-1, and only one of them makes the playoffs, that one team is ASU and not Ohio State.

The only way the Pac-12 can produce a 1-loss team that is not a champion is if both USC and Arizona win out and USC wins the Pac at 12-2 (or 11-3 with a loss to ND) and Arizona does not play in the title game despite being 11-1.

The other one loss teams (Oregon, ASU and Utah) cannot win out without going to the title game.

So, it'd be crazy if ND goes 11-1 (beating USC and ASU in the process) but USC still wins the South and Arizona somehow finishes 11-1.

Even crazier if Oregon also finishes 12-1 and wins the Pac-12. Then you'd have 2 one loss teams, where the one that was not champion beat the one that was champion.

SEC can also produce a lot of scenarios like this, whether they involve 3-way ties in the West, or a 2-loss UGA champion that lost to 11-1 Auburn who in turn lost to 12-1 Mississippi State

Ole miss/ miss st should be in group 1. If either of them run the table they are 100% guaranteed in. At most one of them can do it obv.

Bama is not 100% in if they run the table. If ole miss also runs the table there are plenty of scenarios where the SEC will only get one team in.

I don't think any of your group 3 teams are 100%.

Actually, I'm not even sure why you have groups.

His groups are not tiered, they're slots. Took me a second to figure it out as well.

Group 1 is obvious - FSU is 100% in if they win out.

Group 2 should only include Miss St, Georgia and Ole Miss. As others have mentioned, it's *possible* that Bama/Auburn get left out even if they win out. If FSU goes 13-0, Ole Miss goes 13-0, Oregon goes 12-1 and TCU or K-State finishes 11-1, an 11-1 Bama team might get left out by the committee, for example.

Group 3 is pretty obvious. I don't see any scenario where 12-1 Oregon gets left out, they'd be a lock for the 3rd spot at worst, I don't see them vying for the 4th spot. They have a huge marquee OOC win, an excuse for their loss, and a massive number of good wins.

Even if the first two slots are taken by FSU and SEC-Champ, and the committee decides to put in a second SEC team, there's no way a 1-loss Big-12 or Big-10 champ gets in over ASU. 1-Loss notre Dame is the biggest threat, but ASU will have beaten them.

Utah also similarly close to a lock in the inconceivable scenario that they win out for the same reasons as ASU, although I can definitely see ND making it in past them, especially since an unefeated ND means that they beat ASU and USC, which devalues two of Utah's wins as well.

Oh I see now

Much better

I forgot which Arizona was which, mea culpa, but seriously, guys. Do you remember how BCS bowl selection worked? They need big fan bases here. Premier programs(Bama, ND, OSU) will get the benefit of the doubt when it comes down to picking which 1-loss teams go.

They won't make that explicit, it'll be about taking conference champions or avoiding rematches or whatever, but that's how it'll work. The biggest determinant in whether 2 SEC teams go is going to be whether that second SEC team is Alabama.

Auburn is 100% in if we win out. In fact we'd probably be the #1 seed. We play 5 road games against the current AP top 11. Absolutely no way a functioning group of adults would miss their "take the best teams, not the most deserving" assignment that they've been emphasizing over and over again that badly.

Auburn's list of wins would probably be more impressive than a list from the rest of the teams in CFB combined.

@ K State
@ Ole Miss
@ UGA
@ Bama

Does any team have a single win better than any of those, considering Oregon's loss has an asterisk? Honestly there might be an argument for Auburn finishing with the best 4 wins in the whole country if we won out (not going to happen.)

Auburn would be 1 or 2 in the polls and 1 in all the computer rankings and the committee isn't just going to say **** everything we're taking the conference winners anyway. I guess you can argue that they can do what they want, but I doubt they want to **** up that obviously right off the bat when it would just be obvious as hell that Auburn would be the best team in the country. It's greater than 99.5% so round up.

Not to mention that for it to even be possible, our loss would have to be to the 12-1 or 13-0 SEC Champs on the road.